Technical analysis by John_Isige about Symbol BTC on 8/26/2025

Pair: BTC/USD Current Price: 109,000 Trend: Corrective downtrend, testing support ⸻ 🔵 Market Overview Bitcoin fell to 109,000, triggering liquidations worth $900M in a single day. Analysts point to elevated volatility (daily BTC vol surged from 15% → 38%) and higher-than-expected U.S. PPI data as the main drivers. Traders hedge risks ahead of U.S. GDP (Aug 28) and NFP data (early September). Derivatives market shows bearish positioning: 25-delta skew turned negative as investors buy put options. Glassnode data: •Open interest in BTC futures –2.6% •Funding payments for longs +29% ($2.8M → $3.6M) This raises risks of cascading liquidations if the price fails to recover. On-chain activity is mixed: daily active addresses declined, while transaction volumes rose, suggesting dominance of short-term speculators. ⸻ 📊 Key Support Levels •110,000 — average cost basis for short-term holders; critical for stability •103,700 — first deeper support •100,800 — major level; breakdown risks invalidating bullish trend Resistance remains near 115,000–118,000, with ATH retest dependent on macro news. ⸻ 🟢 Positive Drivers •Institutional buying: Strategy acquired 3,081 BTC ($357M) on Aug 25. •ETF inflows: Spot BTC ETFs attracted $219M after a $1.1B weekly outflow. •ETH inflows: Ethereum ETFs recorded $444M, signaling broader market demand. Despite corrections, large investors see opportunity to accumulate. ⸻ 🔎 Technical Setup •Bollinger Bands: widening, reflecting volatility •MACD: decreasing momentum but still above zero •Stochastic: near oversold, possible rebound ⸻ 📈 Trading Scenarios Scenario (Bullish Recovery) •Recommendation: BUY LIMIT •Entry Point: 110,000 •Take Profit: 115,000, 118,000 •Stop Loss: 103,500 Alternative (Bearish Breakdown) •Recommendation: SELL STOP •Entry Point: 103,700 •Take Profit: 100,800, 97,500 •Stop Loss: 106,500