Technical analysis by currencynerd about Symbol BTC on 8/20/2025

Are We Nearing a Macro Turning Point? Markets may look chaotic on the surface, but zoom out far enough and a rhythm begins to emerge. For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, one of the most compelling patterns traders track is the 1,064-day cycle, a rough cadence of boom and bust that has repeated across multiple market eras. With October 2025 approaching, many analysts are asking: Is another turning point on the horizon? Why 1,064 Days? The number isn’t arbitrary. Crypto markets, especially Bitcoin, have displayed a recurring rhythm tied loosely to halvings, liquidity cycles, and investor psychology. Roughly every 1,064 days (about 2.9 years), Bitcoin seems to align with a macro peak or trough. Cycle 1 (2011–2014): BTC surged from a few dollars to over $1,000 before collapsing in late 2013. Cycle 2 (2014–2017): The next expansion drove prices to $20,000 by December 2017 — almost exactly 1,064 days later. Cycle 3 (2018–2021): From the 2018 bear bottom, Bitcoin reached $69,000 in November 2021 — again within the 1,064-day window. The cycle doesn’t work like clockwork, but the cadence is eerily consistent, suggesting that investor flows, halvings, and liquidity injections may move in long, repeating arcs. Mapping Today’s Position If we anchor the most recent cycle to the November 2021 peak, the 1,064-day marker points us toward October 2025. This timeline aligns uncomfortably well with two forces: Halving Lag Effect – Historically, the real bull accelerations occur 12–18 months after a halving event (the next one being April 2024). That would put late 2025 squarely in the “froth” zone. Liquidity Rotation – Global central banks are currently balancing inflation with growth concerns. By late 2025, markets may expect easing, a perfect storm for risk-on assets like crypto. What the Charts Suggest? Looking at long-term Bitcoin charts, cycle expansions follow a similar arc: A steep bull phase fueled by retail and institutional adoption. A distribution top marked by extreme leverage, retail euphoria, and inflows into speculative altcoins. A macro correction that wipes out 70–85% of value before a new base forms. If history rhymes, the 2025 cycle top could be the most significant yet, not just in terms of price, but in market maturity. Institutional ETFs, regulatory frameworks, and global adoption add layers of credibility that were absent in past cycles. Why Traders Should Care Cycle mapping is not about prediction with surgical precision, it’s about framing risk and opportunity. For long-term investors: Understanding that late 2025 could coincide with a major top helps avoid FOMO and plan exits with discipline. For swing traders: These cycles offer context for positioning. Bull legs tend to accelerate in the 6–12 months before the cycle peak. For macro thinkers: If crypto follows this cycle, it could front-run global liquidity shifts, making it a leading indicator for risk appetite. nerdy thoughts : The Clock Is Ticking The 1,064-day cycle isn’t prophecy. But its consistency across three full eras of crypto history makes it hard to dismiss. As October 2025 approaches, traders would do well to watch for echoes of past patterns: accelerating inflows, leverage buildup, and sentiment peaking. Because in crypto, time doesn’t just pass, it compounds into cycles. And those cycles often whisper what comes next. put together by: currencynerd courtesy of : TradingView