Technical analysis by afurs1 about Symbol MSTRX: Buy recommendation (8/19/2025)

Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K. In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable. Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates. Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario. I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high). The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure. A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point. This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.You can see we have 2 major volume zones from the accumulation range. Lets see if we bounce from either of themFor now, patiently waiting for the market to come closer to my pullback target for what could be an ABC correction here within the range.Currently trading into the GAP zone, should we get a bounce here, I like this for the long trade.Finally into the levels. Taking the long trade, and building the swing as we drop. I will ladder into this position with 3 entries.How you like thatDecent reaction so far... For further continuation, price would need to change market structure at key levels to reverse the trend. We do have a major news catalyst tomorrow at 8:30am est,so I will monitor the pre-markets to see where price may be moving to.MSTR needs to reclaim 335 to show some strengthGame timeAccumulation rangeBroader picture, MSTR is still respecting the 1-1 target for the correction at the lowsfood for thoughtGetting the breakoutLets get the pump startedTP1Getting a bit of a pullback today, to establish some clarity of a potential reversal. I would prefer to see the stock maintain above the 344ish zone, marked by the orange line on the volume profile as this is the higher end of the accumulation range. Holding this zone would increase probabilities for the next push higher.So far breaking below, but in the formation of a corrective structure. So for now daily closes are more important as this to me is more so a liquidity zone, and perhaps area to compound the tradeExactly what I wanted to seeSubtle mini crash overnight on BTC. But MSTR is recovering well, should we reclaim above the same level as Friday (338) then this is likely just a stop run / volatility / deviation of the broader uptrend.Just need this prev day low to hold nowWe also have the 618 retracement. My thoughts are, if this is the real breakout and we have a feint now to shake out weaker hands then this is the place to bounce fromLooking good, this zone is also the s/r flip of the previous balance rangeWould be really nice to get an inverse h&s and mimic the symmetry from the drop.welp that is dissapointing, seems a bit weaker than I expected... Last level to hold is now the value area low of this range being $326. Lose that and I will be stopped outLost 326 and stopped outGoing to take a new long position here as MNAV hits a record low, as well as the prev range most traded zone, in confluence with the anchored vwap from the previous low pivot.Need to get above the 320 zone to confirm this deviation / stop huntNice reaction thus farWhat a crazy shakeout, now getting acceptance back into the range. Lets get the daily close above $320 todayTextbook wycoff accumulationKey Area of support for the Wycoff is $325 now.Nice closeAs per wycoff, this is the restest of the support that needs to hold in order to move into the next phase.So far being respectedThis rise can be aggressive nowThere is the aggressive rise