Technical analysis by afurs1 about Symbol MSTRX: Buy recommendation (8/19/2025)

Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K. In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable. Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates. Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario. I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high). The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure. A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point. This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.You can see we have 2 major volume zones from the accumulation range. Lets see if we bounce from either of themFor now, patiently waiting for the market to come closer to my pullback target for what could be an ABC correction here within the range.Currently trading into the GAP zone, should we get a bounce here, I like this for the long trade.Finally into the levels. Taking the long trade, and building the swing as we drop. I will ladder into this position with 3 entries.How you like thatDecent reaction so far... For further continuation, price would need to change market structure at key levels to reverse the trend. We do have a major news catalyst tomorrow at 8:30am est,so I will monitor the pre-markets to see where price may be moving to.