Technical analysis by SupertradeOfficial about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (16 hour ago)

•The move to $122.5k looks like a sharp liquidity grab / exhaustion wick rather than a sustained follow-through. •Price failed to hold the top (small bearish candles after the spike) and is now sitting on/near a shallow support area — a classic place for sellers to press once momentum cools. •Multiple prior “S” markers around the mid-$118k zone show persistent supply there; that same supply can re-assert as price retests. •Bearish bias while price remains below the red supply zone (~$122.2–122.5k) and until it can reclaim & close above ~123k on 1H. Key levels (read from the chart) •Immediate resistance / supply zone: 122,200 – 122,501 (red box). •Current price shown: 121,506.61. •Support levels (dotted lines): 119,872.53 (first), 118,864.72 (second), 115,843.52 (stronger support / demand). •Invalidation for the bearish plan: sustained close above ~123,000 (1H close). Two actionable bearish setups (with exact math) Setup A — “Rejection short” (preferred) •Rationale: Wait for a retest/rejection of the red supply zone (122.2–122.5k). •Entry: 122,200 (short on clear rejection candle) •Stop: 123,000 (above the supply) → risk = 123,000 − 122,200 = 800 points. •Targets: oTP1 = 119,872.53 → reward = 122,200 − 119,872.53 = 2,327.47 → R:R = 2,327.47 / 800 = 2.91 : 1. oTP2 = 118,864.72 → reward = 122,200 − 118,864.72 = 3,335.28 → R:R ≈ 4.17 : 1. oTP3 = 115,843.52 → reward = 122,200 − 115,843.52 = 6,356.48 → R:R ≈ 7.95 : 1. Setup B — “Breakdown short” (if price loses structure) •Rationale: Trade the structure break — enter only after a clean breakdown below a nearby support retest. •Entry: 121,000 (short once price decisively breaks and retests lower side) •Stop: 122,000 → risk = 1,000 points. •Targets: same support ladder: oTP1 = 119,872.53 → reward = 121,000 − 119,872.53 = 1,127.47 → R:R = 1,127.47 / 1,000 = 1.13 : 1. oTP2 = 118,864.72 → R:R ≈ 2.14 : 1. oTP3 = 115,843.52 → R:R ≈ 5.16 : 1. Short trade management / rules •Position sizing: risk a fixed % of account per trade (e.g., 0.5–1%). Use the risk points above to size the position. •Scaling: take ~25–40% at TP1, move stop to breakeven on first partial fill, trail rest to TP2/TP3. •Confirmation: prefer one of these confirmations before entry — bearish 1H close below the short entry or clear rejection wick + volume spike to the upside followed by selling. (I can’t see live volume here — check it on your platform.) •Invalidation: an hourly close above ~123k invalidates the bearish plan; flip bias to neutral/bull. Why this is a high-probability bearish setup •The rally was fast and left small-range candles after the spike — typical of exhaustion where liquidity was swept. •Prior range had repeated sells around lower highs (S markers) — that supply doesn’t vanish; a failed breakout often returns to fill that liquidity. •The downside targets are relatively close (TP1 is only ~1.63k points below current price, about 1.34%), so short targets are reachable without needing a large trend reversal. (Example percent math shown exactly: current 121,506.61 − TP1 119,872.53 = 1,634.08 points → 1,634.08 ÷ 121,506.61 = 0.0134485 → ≈ 1.345% drop to TP1.) Watchouts / final notes •If BTC prints strong continuation volume on a push above 122.5k and holds >123k on hourly closes, the short edge is gone. •Check 4H / daily to ensure this isn’t just a higher-timeframe bullish leg that will quickly absorb short pressure. If higher TF shows strong bullish structure, keep stops tighter. •Not financial advice — treat this as a technical plan and adjust sizing/risk to your rules.