Technical analysis by Phillipklh about Symbol DOT: Buy recommendation (8/6/2025)

Polkadot is currently in the early stages of a major impulsive advance, supported by a strong multi-timeframe Elliott Wave structure. According to the primary count, the asset has just completed a corrective Wave [2] and is now entering a new bullish cycle that could unfold across several degrees of trend. Specifically, we appear to be at the beginning of Cycle Wave 1, Primary Wave 3, Intermediate Wave 1, and Minor Wave 3 — a highly bullish alignment suggesting both immediate and longer-term upside potential. There is an alternative scenario with lower probability that assumes the recent advance is still part of a larger corrective structure, implying that the correction could extend further to make a new low. This would correspond to an ongoing Wave (5) or [C], targeting a drop below the $3.02 level. However, given the clean impulsive structure of the recent move and the rejection from key support zones, this bearish alternative currently lacks strong evidence and remains unlikely unless the local low is breached. Sentiment and derivatives data support the bullish thesis. Funding rates are positive, indicating that traders are willing to pay to hold long positions, and open interest is rising, showing increased conviction and participation. One area of caution, however, comes from the liquidity heatmap, which highlights significant liquidity sitting below the current price. This suggests that a short-term liquidity sweep cannot be ruled out, even within a bullish context. That said, structurally and probabilistically, the primary scenario remains intact and dominant. The recent corrective structure has found strong support, and the initial breakout signals the early phase of a Wave 3 advance. Given the high reward-to-risk ratio at current levels, this zone represents an optimal entry opportunity for traders aligning with the macro bullish thesis.NOTE TO ALL OF MY ANALYSES: You might be wondering why prices are expected to rise — especially considering that Wave 3 is typically the most dynamic phase in an impulsive structure. One of the main reasons lies in macroeconomic conditions: for a long time, capital inflow into crypto has been limited due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining high interest rates. However, this could change at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 93.6% probability of a rate cut being priced in. This expectation could lead to a classic "sell-the-news" event, as markets front-run the decision. That front-running could provide fuel for Wave 3 — especially from retail participants. Why retail? Because institutional players have already entered. We’ve seen them form significant order blocks near the end of Wave 2, which indicates professional accumulation during peak uncertainty. This structural evidence supports the idea that the smart money is already positioned — leaving retail to push the next leg. Have a great week & stay consistent.