Technical analysis by moonypto about Symbol BTC on 7/8/2025

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEK 📊 Macro This week’s macro focus? US treasury auctions 10 Year Treasury Note Auction – Wednesday The US government raises funds by selling debt to investors, promising to repay it over 10 years with a fixed interest rate. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday The Federal Reserve releases notes from its June meeting. These minutes offer a glimpse into the Fed’s current economic stance and how they’re thinking about interest rates going forward. Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday This weekly data sheds light on the health of the labor market. A rise in claims could signal rising unemployment a key variable that might push the Fed toward rate cuts. 30 Year Treasury Bond Auction – Thursday Similar to the 10 year auction, but the debt here matures over 30 years offering a longer term view of investor confidence. Why Do Yields Rise? When investors grow uncertain about the long-term strength of a country's economy or currency, they’ll demand higher interest in exchange for lending their money to protect their purchasing power. Impact on Crypto! If government bonds offer high, low risk returns, they become more attractive than speculative assets like stocks or crypto. So, rising yields can pull capital out of risk assets. What Can We Learn From Treasury Auctions? These auctions give us a real time pulse on investor sentiment. Bidders tell the U.S government what interest rates they expect in return for lending money. A flood of low-rate bids suggests investors see the U.S as a stable, low-risk borrower. High rate bids indicate doubt and demand for more compensation to take on long term exposure. 🏛️Government & ELON The deadline for the US tariff decision** has been pushed from Wednesday, July 9, to Friday, August 1. Markets may have already priced in the delay, but we’ll be watching how they react this week. Elon Musk has apparently launched a new political party, and it’s pro Bitcoin. While it’s way too early to know how real or impactful this will be, it’s worth monitoring. One thing’s for sure, fiat isn’t invited! yay 📈 Technicals Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Bounces Off Key Support Let’s break it down: Market Value (MV) = current total value of all coins (price × supply) Realized Value (RV) = total value based on when coins were last moved SMA365 = simple moving average of BTC’s price over the past year The MVRV ratio (MV ÷ RV) just bounced off the 365day average a support level that’s historically signaled bull continuation But now, the two lines are starting to converge again and if MVRV drops below the SMA365, it could spell short term weakness Trump Shifts Focus to Trade as Tariff Risks Rise With his major bill stalled and tensions in the Middle East, Trump is now turning to trade. Only one deal has been finalized so far, but 14 new trade notices have gone out with a deadline of August 1. Japan and South Korea face a 25% tariff threat, echoing April's proposals and effectively restarting talks. Markets remain unfazed, used to Trump’s tariff threats but follow through would hit global growth. As the debt ceiling looms, Trump must assure Congress the deficit is under control. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell remains cautious, balancing low inflation with potential tariff related risks. QT continues, draining liquidity. Investors are watching three triggers: late July refunding plans, possible early August tariffs, and Jackson Hole in late August whats your opinion , Are you Moonish or Doomish ? and whyUntil recently, whales on the U.S based Coinbase exchange were driving the market, but today's surge was driven by a significant move from a major whale on the Binance exchangeThe U.S. reported a seasonally adjusted CPI MoM of 0.3% for June, in line with expectations and up from 0.1% previously. The unadjusted YoY CPI rose to 2.7%, matching forecasts and marking the highest level since February.