Technical analysis by elfabiiani about Symbol KAS: Buy recommendation (6/12/2025)

1. Market context & chart structureAsset / venue / timeframe: KAS-USDT (Bybit spot), 4-hour candles, data to 12 Jun 2025 06:45 UTC (see image).Primary pattern in play: Price has compressed into a contracting (symmetrical) triangle that began after the 28 May low. The apex is only ~1–2 candles away, so a decisive break is statistically imminent.Preceding structure:17-day descending channel → capitulation into a falling-wedge reversal (27–28 May).Two-legged double-bottom (“Bottom 2”) at 0.075–0.078 USDT.Sideways rectangle 29 May-7 Jun, now morphing into the present triangle.Key horizontal levels (4 h closes): 0.0930 (upper triangle rail / neckline) · 0.0891 (local supply) · 0.0797 (strong demand / wedge base) · 0.0620 (monthly support) Volume picture: Realised volume has been drying up since 31 May, a classic pre-breakout contraction. A spike on the break will confirm direction.2. Indicator read-outMarket Cipher B - Green momentum wave printing, money-flow bars just turned positiveMildly bullish, Early bull divergence vs 28 MayRSI(14) - 46 and curling up - Neutral-to-bullishHidden bullish divergence vs price higher-lowsStoch RSI26/24 and crossing up from oversoldBullishMomentum reset completeArTy Money-Flow Index+3.5 and risingBullishPositive inflow after five sessions of outflowCollectively the oscillators favour an upside resolution, provided volume confirms.3. Scenario probability matrixScenarioTrigger & confirmation Option 1 – Uptrend continuation4 h close ≥ 0.0925 USDT with volume ≥ 2× 20-period averageMeasured-move 0.107 → 0.118; extended fib 1.618 ≈ 0.125–0.128Est. probability: 60 %Option 2 – Downtrend resumption4 h close ≤ 0.079 USDT with similar volume spike 0.072 (range EQ) → 0.067–0.062 structural supportEst. probability: 40 %Weighting derives from: oscillator bias, shrinking supply above 0.092 (order-book heat-map), but tempered by external models calling for a short-term dip toward 0.067 USDT 4. Trading planComponentLong (Option 1) Short (Option 2)Entry Buy stop 0.0926 USDTSell stop 0.0789 USDTInitial stop-loss0.0838 USDT 0.0870 USDT (back inside triangle)Primary target-10.1050 (≈1R) 0.0725 (≈1R)Secondary target-20.1180 (≈2.5R) 0.0670 (≈2.5R)Position sizeRisk ≤ 1 % of account per trade (adjust contracts accordingly)5. Additional catalysts & risk factorsMacro-beta: BTC dominance and broad market risk-on / risk-off could swamp pattern-based setups; monitor DXY and SPX correlations.Protocol news: Kaspa’s DAG-based roadmap upgrades and potential exchange listings remain upside catalysts. Conversely, lack of progress or regulatory headlines could accelerate a downside break. kaspa.orgWeekend liquidity gaps: KAS often shows slippage outside US trading hours; consider reducing size or using wide stops if breakout occurs late Friday–Sunday.6. To sum upBias: I lean 60 % toward Option 1 (bullish breakout) provided we get a 4 h close above 0.092 with volume confirmation. Otherwise, a flush to the 0.07 area (Option 2) is the alternative. Trade the break, not the prediction, and keep risk tight.