Technical analysis by NextElliott about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (5/21/2025)

# 📉 **BTCUSD Market Update & Forecast ( 21st May 2025 )****Date:** May 21, 2025**Analyst:** NextElliott**Instrument:** BTCUSD**Current Price:** \$106,376**Strategy Type:** Elliott Wave, Gann Confluence, Probabilistic Reversal**Trade Horizon:** 2–7 Days**Timeframes Observed:** 4H / Daily---## 🔍 **Market Context & Price Behavior**BTCUSD has successfully reached my **upper resistance target zone of \$106,200–\$108,400**, topping out near \$106,400. This zone was previously identified as a **potential exhaustion area**—a Fibonacci cluster and Gann resistance confluence, marking the final stage of a **Wave (3) advance**.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/H5ATTh4r-BTCUSD-Market-Analysis-Trade-Outlook-May-9th-2025/Price is now reacting to this resistance, and early signs of distribution or momentum loss are appearing in the 4H structure. This suggests a high-probability setup for a **corrective pullback** before any potential continuation of the larger trend.---## 📐 **Technical Breakdown**### 🔻 Resistance Confluence Zone (Hit)* **\$106,200–\$108,400** * 1.618 extension from prior impulse * Gann 120°–135° resistance arcs * Measured wave projection from \$94,500 low### 🔻 Immediate Support Zones (Pullback Targets)* **TP1:** \$97,870 – High-volume node + sub-wave 4 base* **TP2:** \$96,850 – Structure base and Gann 45° angle* **TP3:** \$95,700 – Final fib/gap support### 🔄 Elliott Wave Interpretation* Current price action likely marks the top of **sub-wave 5 of Wave (3)**.* A corrective **Wave (4)** is anticipated next, typically retracing to the prior Wave 4 of lesser degree: * **Target range:** \$99,000 → \$97,870 → \$96,850* Once this retracement completes, a final **Wave (5)** toward new highs may initiate—**provided** structural support holds above \$95,700.---## 🧭 **Gann Angle Analysis*** The recent high aligns with the 120° arc from the March low—commonly a **cycle reversal marker**.* Gann support lies near: * **\$97,870** → 45° harmonic * **\$96,850–\$95,700** → 60°–75° clusterTimewise, BTC is exiting the minor **May 10–11 Gann window**, entering a possible correction window lasting until **May 24–26**.---## 🎯 **Trade Scenario Outlook**### 🔴 **Bearish Retracement Scenario (Active)*** **Trigger:** Reaction failure below \$106,200 confirms reversal* **Targets:** * TP1: **\$97,870** * TP2: **\$96,850** * TP3: **\$95,700*** **Invalidation:** 4H close above \$108,400### 🛠️ Risk Management* Consider short entries on breakdowns below \$104,800 (support break)* Use stop-losses above \$107,000 (recent high)* Take partial profits near each retracement target* Monitor RSI/Volume divergence for early reversal signs near \$97,870---## 🧠 **Strategic Commentary**BTCUSD has met all pre-defined bullish objectives, aligning with the end of a 5-wave advance. The next **logical market move** is a correction to refresh bullish momentum and reset trader positioning. Expect volatility and potential range-based behavior before the next impulsive rally.This zone offers **ideal conditions for tactical shorts or long re-entries** upon support confirmation.---## 📌 **Conclusion**BTCUSD has tagged its upper resistance zone and now shows signs of topping within a mature wave structure. The anticipated pullback toward **\$97,870** is part of a healthy macro trend and should be monitored for possible long-term re-entry opportunities.Traders should shift focus to downside targets, apply disciplined risk management, and stay adaptive to emerging price signals.