Technical analysis by TraderDusk about Symbol BTC on 5/16/2025

Hello, I'm full-time trader Dusk.If this analysis helps you, please consider following and boosting this post. Thank you!Today, I'm writing with anticipation and excitement as Bitcoin once again approaches an 8-year-long historical trendline.It has been quite a journey, with Bitcoin reaching a high of $19,000 in 2017, soaring to $69,000 in 2021, and touching $109K in 2025On January 20 of this year, Bitcoin tested its 8-year trendline but failed to break above it, subsequently dropping sharply to $74,500 (-32%) by April 4. Since then, Bitcoin has steadily recovered and continued its upward momentum.Currently, Bitcoin is at $104,000, with the next key target being $113,000.I've outlined four possible scenarios:① Immediate rejection and decline from current priceProbability: ★★★☆☆ (Medium)② Reaching $113K, then decliningProbability: ★★★☆☆ (Medium)③ Direct breakout above $113KProbability: ★★☆☆☆ (Moderate)④ Touching $113K, consolidating, then continuing upwardsProbability: ★★★★☆ (High)Personally, I find scenarios ② and ④ to be the most likely, though I’m hoping for scenario ③—a powerful breakout beyond $113K.However, the region between $105K and $113K currently presents significant selling pressure. It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin can swiftly break through this resistance and maintain momentum despite substantial selling volume.That said, the current market dynamics differ significantly from the past. BlackRock now holds approximately 600,000 BTC, MicroStrategy around 550,000 BTC, and various U.S. states and countries are increasingly recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic asset.Today's news highlights Galaxy Digital's Nasdaq listing and discussions with the SEC regarding tokenizing Nasdaq-listed U.S. stocks.With increased institutional and governmental adoption and now discussions around stock tokenization, Bitcoin stands on the threshold of mainstream institutional acceptance.Let's closely monitor how Bitcoin responds at this historic trendline, and together witness the potential unfolding of a new financial era.I hope this isn't just wishful thinking!