Technical analysis by Binary_Forecasting_Service about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (5/6/2025)

Bulls are favored as long as prices remain above 3320 ahead of FOMC. However, since U.S. aftermarket close, bears have dropped price $50 already but they still need $65 more. It's FOMC tomorrow at 19 hours out from publishing this post and chart above is the binary outcome. Bulls' route to 3760-3850-3965 have only appeared in the last 18 hours, but have strong implications that February 2026 will see $7250 gold prices, or higher. This continues directly from previous post. However, I am running out of time.7:13 PM ET, THIS IS MY LAST POST 1) I will only add should I have time 2) so be aware 3) tonight, we are watching to see what Tokyo will do with this setup 4) bulls need to keep it above 3338 to be strongly favored 5) bears need 3240s again to prevent the double blow off10:53 PM ET 5/7 ... WHAT THIS WORLD IS COMING TO?? 1) I can't make sense of the geopolitics 2) I can't grasp all the knock on effects 3) but I can tell you we are moving for 3850-4000 in 20 days or less 4) and that would set us up for 7500-8000 5) next February5/8, 10:13 AM... here's a break down of all scenarios starting 1) base case should be mid June 3965 high 2) followed by correction 3) followed by June 2026 7450 high 4) but the LOW RANGE is still 2790 floor until it's eliminated 5) the odds of this 2790 followed by 5300 high 6) are insignificant but worth pointing7) out8) only bc of the delayed check to 3320 overnight 9) but what ever odds bears have before FOMC 10) are much lower now5.11 SUN night and under 3300 with several lines of bad news for gold... 1) India pakistan agree to peace deal negotiations 2) zelensky agree to meet putting 3) China agrees to substantial progress of trade talks in Geneva 4) Trump reveals that he has several many cards to play etc... 5) silver doing exactly nothing 6) so it looks like gold is deciding between a 6600 and a 7400 high next year, 7) but the short term is getting very convoluted 8) this coming week will reveal a lot5/13, 11:17 AM ET, so here's what can be said... 1) gold absolutely favors 7150 OR HIGHER AS NEXT MAJOR HIGH 2) that is counting 3500 as a "major high" 3) we also know that the WEAK WINDOW LEFT IS NOW TO JULY 15th 4) and price does not have to "consume the entire window... 5) especially after June 25th... 6) so basically with today is 5/13, we have about 40-60 days of weak trend left in both gold and silver 7) with gold seemingly weaker8) I titled this post, at top, 2790 vs 3965 with extension to 7250 9) what I am basically seeing is 2790 can get hit or even worse 10) but price still end up at 7150 next June1) in chart above, after 2850(2565 extension)... 2) it would be 3700s in October again 3) and 4700-5100 in February 4) and 7000+ in June7:41 AM 05-14, 3230's and in chart above.. 1) the next 12 hours decides whether it is BLUE OR 2) GRAY-YELLOW (both basically the same route with varied 2 way vol) OR 3) ORANGE-RED (actually the same but needs refining 4) gray-yellow to 3050ish is favored5) continuing in chart above, I marked the four levels that need to be watched 6) on our way to that next bounce 7) in theory, the bounce should come between 3020 and 3040 8) however, the target is 2960 and not "that far down" 9) that being said, IT IS STILL AN OUTLIER TO GO STRAIGHT TO 2960 10) so base case would be bounce between 3020-3040 about 140-ish 11) BEFORE moving for 2960 12) meanwhile in silver...13) in last post... 14) I wrote that silver "needed to go to 26 in May" 15) but that was not a "call" 16) I just thought that I would make everything fit well together 17) regardless, the Fed have rates at 4.5% while inflation coming in at 2% 18) so rates are a real 2%+ 19) do we have liquidity crisis yet? 20) especially with Europe pulling out that "trillion dollar" FDI meant for the United States 21) too many questions 22) that can only be cleared up once we see 296023) so a 9:12 AM ET, we are at a critical level so to speak 24) if 3200 does not hold the bounce here, then all expectations change25) that 3025 level should just be 3050 flat26) so this means that Friday floor is 3140 27) this results in "the long way to 2960" 28) and ONLY IF 3125 breaks late May or 29) very early in June7:28 AM, 5-16, here is what it looked like 5 hours ago:1) in chart above, price is saying that 3140 holds but the first bounce ... 2) will get sold to 3095 on Monday ahead of the third top 3) this looks a bit suspicious4) I want clarity on when 3095 gets hit 5) to call a third top 6) instead of a slower route to 3095.. 7) follpwed by hard bounce but 8) resolve by a a crush to 3025 9) ultimately... the question is still 10) when to we hit 2960 11) because the 7125 target stays put 12) and the only retrace that happens 13) in 19 out of 20 scenarios 14) is 296015) counter intuitively... 16) if 2960 holds ahead of 7125 rally 17) that really means 7125 should come by February 18) that also 7125 is an ultimate high 19) for YEARS..20) in the 20th scenario, we make new high and retrace to to 30xx or 31xx 21) meaning we never hit 2960 22) and that would mean 7125 COMES IN DECEMBER4) continuing in chart above, this would make 3rd top 5) and for the record, if you scroll up about 7-8 charts 6) I discussed this route as, "THE CRAZIEST PATTERN IS THIS"... 7) because we don't have 3 descending tops 8) we have triple crown with low top in the middleSo for Sunday night into Monday NY close: 1) bulls really need 3275 by London open 2) circa 3 AM ET NY time 3) if they don't do this they have 2 more 6 hour cycles 4) to form less impressive 3rd top formations 5) but since they own the spike setup as well as long term 6) for every failure to break up is a guarantee of 2555 getting hit in June 7) especially of bears open Sunday night with a move straight to 3125 again8) do the first 10 hours after open are super critical for both sides 9) my call is 2555 in June until this changes9:51 PM ET, 3221 AFTER STALLING AT 3249.XX 1) as of RIGHT THIS SECOND bulls still own the short term setup 2) so if they don't hit 3275 in 5 hours, that's a problem 3) the move that is not obvious to see is 100 straight down from here 4) to 3125 again 5) and if they surrender this setup for 3460 6) it's really hard to see 2960 get defended a third time... 7) counting April as the first time8) and late May the second time9) long story short there's 2 moves I can see 10) it's either +55 to 3275 or 11) -95 to 3125 12) in next 5 hours13) sideways stall result is tough to call 14) but would buy bulls 12 extra hours to find a way to 346010) continuing in chart above, the "implied blue route" is:11) so in chart above, my read is that bulls do not have enough to make it this time 12) yesterday, I said that the first 10 hours were super important for both sides 13) that means until 3 AM ET, and if bulls do not make it to 3275 AND PRICE STALLS 14) bulls would buy TWO MORE 6 HOUR CYCLES or ... 15) to 9 AM ET and then 3 PM ET, we have already finished the first one 16) and it's 10:14 AM ET as I type 17) so technically, bulls have 5 more hours to attempt this break of the black dashed line 18) so be aware of that 19) but I also said yesterday that with each failure of this break out (which means move to 3470 now) 20) this means 2555 in June... and why? 21) it is simply a "reinforcing this dashed line down as the total resistance 22) because bulls "basically" have a perfect setup for 3470 now 23) not moving here would simply mean there's no more demand 24) and the only way is down25) and that move would start with 3060 before Thursday 26) in other words, by Wed night or Tokyo session8:30 AM ET 3242.XX AND HEADING FOR 3275-32901) and by extension 3460 2) last 5.5 hours saw bulls took basically perfect setup to perfect 3) which does 3 things 4) one, break that dashed line 5) two, reverse a perfect bear setup 6) three, RAISE THE 3460 ceiling6) in chart above, I don't know what happens here with the trends that form the bear route 7) because they have to get resolved 8) there two ways to resolve them 9) the first is completely vertical up10) but I cannot "call that", you can only follow it on 1 to 4-min bars 11) because it's a continuously changing situation12) 2 thing need to happen to call price action here 13) hitting 3375 and judging first reaction to 3375 14) the rest is entirely unresolved15) cannot say when 3375 gets hit 16) can't even say if it will get hit 17) can say if it gets hit, it would be Thursday or Friday, perhaps Monday 18) everything else is convoluted8) continuing in chart above, so I close this post and everything else with 9) there are 3 moves left 10) long to 3600 11) short to 3000 (because it could easily be 3650 high) 12) long to 7250 13) the only part left that I see there is wiggle room is that 14) in theory, bulls can't break red line until next week 15) that means that even though 3375 CAN GET HIT this week 16) it would be rejected for retest which is probably 3250 17) before moving up to 3400 18) in this window, if bulls are not strong 19) then bears can push the move down like this, but NOT MUCH:20) but let's go over that anyway in case it happens 21) if 3500 is the top in, then THE FLOOR IS 2875 OR HIGHER 22) and should come in June or August more like this:23) that's all I got and I am done with paying for the right to write about it 24) the end3:11 PM ET, so let's sum this up right now because I am really done writing more about this:1) I see silver breaking out as gold moves up 2) along with that, I don't know that this stops at 36xx 3) if I am being honest, I have to say 3820 4) because I misread the October check down 5) I can't see it hitting ANYTHING UNDER 3100 6) so that basically means that it is going to be 38xx with the next floor at 3140+++ 7) this also means that whatever high is coming next year, it's going to be above 7500 8) end of this story5/22 NO CALL:1) in chart above is silvers perfect arc for 15 years 2) and what does it say? a) this rally will last for a min of 30 more months b) a maximum of 8 years c) ball park is 5.5 years or end of year 2030 d) with the final high range from 450 to 1450 e) the likely high under $685 f) meaning the call should be $683 by DEC 2030 g) the problem is the window from here to THIS OCTOBER h) specifically before 08/09 with max vol i) about $26.653) no one is debating the ultimate path of precious metals 4) the problem is gold vs silver 5) the 15 year arcs vs gold 45 year trend line 6) I cannot explain why silver did not hit a new high when gold hit 35007) 3 month normal vol says silver can break this arc before September8) what does this all mean? a) before gold and silver head to their ultimate destination b) there must be a transition period that c) occurs where silver strength surpasses gold strength d) and what happens immediately before this e) is when silver weakness WEAKENS more vs gold f ) meaning that there must be a correction from here to JANUARY 2026 g) where silver corrects LESS THAN GOLD corrects9:57 AM ET that does not solve what happens from here to July because 1) there are two scenarios both legitimate 2) first one is rally to July and correct hard to October 3) meaning one more high 3760 or higher with a silver breakout 4) the second is continue correcting until a bottom in July or August 5) but the technicals do not reveal anything hence the no call 6) what we do know is decision comes next week 7) and I've already discussed what that looks like 8) this is the end of the road for me 9) good luck to you and thanks for reading06/03/2025, FOR ALL THE PEOPLE THAT KEPT COMING BACK DESPITE ME NOT UPDATING THIS: 1) first, in notes above at "3) meaning one more high 3760 or higher with a silver breakout" ... 2) that is where we are 3) but to restart this work with a more sustainable approach ... 4) here is my next post before things get really interesting:5) chart above is a comparison between gold and silver price action, all-timme 6) I will continue there