Technical analysis by Binary_Forecasting_Service about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (5/6/2025)

Bulls are favored as long as prices remain above 3320 ahead of FOMC. However, since U.S. aftermarket close, bears have dropped price $50 already but they still need $65 more. It's FOMC tomorrow at 19 hours out from publishing this post and chart above is the binary outcome. Bulls' route to 3760-3850-3965 have only appeared in the last 18 hours, but have strong implications that February 2026 will see $7250 gold prices, or higher. This continues directly from previous post.However, I am running out of time.7:13 PM ET, THIS IS MY LAST POST1) I will only add should I have time2) so be aware 3) tonight, we are watching to see what Tokyo will do with this setup 4) bulls need to keep it above 3338 to be strongly favored5) bears need 3240s again to prevent the double blow off10:53 PM ET 5/7 ... WHAT THIS WORLD IS COMING TO??1) I can't make sense of the geopolitics 2) I can't grasp all the knock on effects3) but I can tell you we are moving for 3850-4000 in 20 days or less4) and that would set us up for 7500-80005) next February5/8, 10:13 AM... here's a break down of all scenarios starting1) base case should be mid June 3965 high2) followed by correction3) followed by June 2026 7450 high4) but the LOW RANGE is still 2790 floor until it's eliminated5) the odds of this 2790 followed by 5300 high6) are insignificant but worth pointing7) out8) only bc of the delayed check to 3320 overnight9) but what ever odds bears have before FOMC 10) are much lower now5.11 SUN night and under 3300 with several lines of bad news for gold...1) India pakistan agree to peace deal negotiations 2) zelensky agree to meet putting3) China agrees to substantial progress of trade talks in Geneva4) Trump reveals that he has several many cards to play etc...5) silver doing exactly nothing 6) so it looks like gold is deciding between a 6600 and a 7400 high next year, 7) but the short term is getting very convoluted 8) this coming week will reveal a lot5/13, 11:17 AM ET, so here's what can be said...1) gold absolutely favors 7150 OR HIGHER AS NEXT MAJOR HIGH 2) that is counting 3500 as a "major high"3) we also know that the WEAK WINDOW LEFT IS NOW TO JULY 15th4) and price does not have to "consume the entire window...5) especially after June 25th...6) so basically with today is 5/13, we have about 40-60 days of weak trend left in both gold and silver7) with gold seemingly weaker8) I titled this post, at top, 2790 vs 3965 with extension to 72509) what I am basically seeing is 2790 can get hit or even worse10) but price still end up at 7150 next June1) in chart above, after 2850(2565 extension)...2) it would be 3700s in October again3) and 4700-5100 in February4) and 7000+ in June7:41 AM 05-14, 3230's and in chart above..1) the next 12 hours decides whether it is BLUE OR2) GRAY-YELLOW (both basically the same route with varied 2 way vol) OR3) ORANGE-RED (actually the same but needs refining4) gray-yellow to 3050ish is favored5) continuing in chart above, I marked the four levels that need to be watched6) on our way to that next bounce7) in theory, the bounce should come between 3020 and 3040 8) however, the target is 2960 and not "that far down" 9) that being said, IT IS STILL AN OUTLIER TO GO STRAIGHT TO 296010) so base case would be bounce between 3020-3040 about 140-ish 11) BEFORE moving for 296012) meanwhile in silver...13) in last post... 14) I wrote that silver "needed to go to 26 in May"15) but that was not a "call"16) I just thought that I would make everything fit well together17) regardless, the Fed have rates at 4.5% while inflation coming in at 2%18) so rates are a real 2%+ 19) do we have liquidity crisis yet? 20) especially with Europe pulling out that "trillion dollar" FDI meant for the United States21) too many questions 22) that can only be cleared up once we see 296023) so a 9:12 AM ET, we are at a critical level so to speak 24) if 3200 does not hold the bounce here, then all expectations change25) that 3025 level should just be 3050 flat26) so this means that Friday floor is 314027) this results in "the long way to 2960"28) and ONLY IF 3125 breaks late May or29) very early in June7:28 AM, 5-16, here is what it looked like 5 hours ago:1) in chart above, price is saying that 3140 holds but the first bounce ...2) will get sold to 3095 on Monday ahead of the third top3) this looks a bit suspicious4) I want clarity on when 3095 gets hit 5) to call a third top 6) instead of a slower route to 3095..7) follpwed by hard bounce but8) resolve by a a crush to 30259) ultimately... the question is still 10) when to we hit 296011) because the 7125 target stays put12) and the only retrace that happens13) in 19 out of 20 scenarios14) is 296015) counter intuitively...16) if 2960 holds ahead of 7125 rally17) that really means 7125 should come by February18) that also 7125 is an ultimate high19) for YEARS..20) in the 20th scenario, we make new high and retrace to to 30xx or 31xx21) meaning we never hit 296022) and that would mean 7125 COMES IN DECEMBER4) continuing in chart above, this would make 3rd top5) and for the record, if you scroll up about 7-8 charts6) I discussed this route as, "THE CRAZIEST PATTERN IS THIS"...7) because we don't have 3 descending tops8) we have triple crown with low top in the middleSo for Sunday night into Monday NY close:1) bulls really need 3275 by London open2) circa 3 AM ET NY time3) if they don't do this they have 2 more 6 hour cycles4) to form less impressive 3rd top formations5) but since they own the spike setup as well as long term6) for every failure to break up is a guarantee of 2555 getting hit in June7) especially of bears open Sunday night with a move straight to 3125 again8) do the first 10 hours after open are super critical for both sides9) my call is 2555 in June until this changes9:51 PM ET, 3221 AFTER STALLING AT 3249.XX1) as of RIGHT THIS SECOND bulls still own the short term setup2) so if they don't hit 3275 in 5 hours, that's a problem3) the move that is not obvious to see is 100 straight down from here4) to 3125 again 5) and if they surrender this setup for 34606) it's really hard to see 2960 get defended a third time...7) counting April as the first time8) and late May the second time9) long story short there's 2 moves I can see10) it's either +55 to 3275 or11) -95 to 3125 12) in next 5 hours13) sideways stall result is tough to call14) but would buy bulls 12 extra hours to find a way to 346010) continuing in chart above, the "implied blue route" is:11) so in chart above, my read is that bulls do not have enough to make it this time 12) yesterday, I said that the first 10 hours were super important for both sides13) that means until 3 AM ET, and if bulls do not make it to 3275 AND PRICE STALLS 14) bulls would buy TWO MORE 6 HOUR CYCLES or ...15) to 9 AM ET and then 3 PM ET, we have already finished the first one16) and it's 10:14 AM ET as I type17) so technically, bulls have 5 more hours to attempt this break of the black dashed line18) so be aware of that19) but I also said yesterday that with each failure of this break out (which means move to 3470 now) 20) this means 2555 in June... and why?21) it is simply a "reinforcing this dashed line down as the total resistance22) because bulls "basically" have a perfect setup for 3470 now23) not moving here would simply mean there's no more demand 24) and the only way is down25) and that move would start with 3060 before Thursday 26) in other words, by Wed night or Tokyo session8:30 AM ET 3242.XX AND HEADING FOR 3275-32901) and by extension 34602) last 5.5 hours saw bulls took basically perfect setup to perfect3) which does 3 things4) one, break that dashed line5) two, reverse a perfect bear setup6) three, RAISE THE 3460 ceiling6) in chart above, I don't know what happens here with the trends that form the bear route7) because they have to get resolved8) there two ways to resolve them9) the first is completely vertical up10) but I cannot "call that", you can only follow it on 1 to 4-min bars11) because it's a continuously changing situation12) 2 thing need to happen to call price action here13) hitting 3375 and judging first reaction to 337514) the rest is entirely unresolved15) cannot say when 3375 gets hit16) can't even say if it will get hit17) can say if it gets hit, it would be Thursday or Friday, perhaps Monday18) everything else is convoluted8) continuing in chart above, so I close this post and everything else with9) there are 3 moves left10) long to 3600 11) short to 3000 (because it could easily be 3650 high) 12) long to 725013) the only part left that I see there is wiggle room is that14) in theory, bulls can't break red line until next week15) that means that even though 3375 CAN GET HIT this week16) it would be rejected for retest which is probably 325017) before moving up to 340018) in this window, if bulls are not strong19) then bears can push the move down like this, but NOT MUCH:20) but let's go over that anyway in case it happens21) if 3500 is the top in, then THE FLOOR IS 2875 OR HIGHER22) and should come in June or August more like this:23) that's all I got and I am done with paying for the right to write about it24) the end3:11 PM ET, so let's sum this up right now because I am really done writing more about this:1) I see silver breaking out as gold moves up2) along with that, I don't know that this stops at 36xx3) if I am being honest, I have to say 38204) because I misread the October check down5) I can't see it hitting ANYTHING UNDER 31006) so that basically means that it is going to be 38xx with the next floor at 3140+++7) this also means that whatever high is coming next year, it's going to be above 75008) end of this story5/22 NO CALL:1) in chart above is silvers perfect arc for 15 years2) and what does it say? a) this rally will last for a min of 30 more months b) a maximum of 8 years c) ball park is 5.5 years or end of year 2030 d) with the final high range from 450 to 1450 e) the likely high under $685 f) meaning the call should be $683 by DEC 2030 g) the problem is the window from here to THIS OCTOBER h) specifically before 08/09 with max vol i) about $26.653) no one is debating the ultimate path of precious metals 4) the problem is gold vs silver5) the 15 year arcs vs gold 45 year trend line6) I cannot explain why silver did not hit a new high when gold hit 35007) 3 month normal vol says silver can break this arc before September8) what does this all mean?a) before gold and silver head to their ultimate destinationb) there must be a transition period that c) occurs where silver strength surpasses gold strengthd) and what happens immediately before thise) is when silver weakness WEAKENS more vs gold f ) meaning that there must be a correction from here to JANUARY 2026g) where silver corrects LESS THAN GOLD corrects9:57 AM ET that does not solve what happens from here to July because1) there are two scenarios both legitimate 2) first one is rally to July and correct hard to October3) meaning one more high 3760 or higher with a silver breakout4) the second is continue correcting until a bottom in July or August5) but the technicals do not reveal anything hence the no call6) what we do know is decision comes next week7) and I've already discussed what that looks like 8) this is the end of the road for me9) good luck to you and thanks for reading06/03/2025, FOR ALL THE PEOPLE THAT KEPT COMING BACK DESPITE ME NOT UPDATING THIS: 1) first, in notes above at "3) meaning one more high 3760 or higher with a silver breakout" ...2) that is where we are 3) but to restart this work with a more sustainable approach ...4) here is my next post before things get really interesting:5) chart above is a comparison between gold and silver price action, all-timme6) I will continue there