Technical analysis by Smaryo3001 about Symbol BTC on 12/21/2024

To make a prediction about Bitcoin’s next rally based on historical patterns, we should first examine the overall trends and how these increases and decreases have evolved in percentage terms.Data observations:337,000% increase -> 93% decreaseMassive increase, followed by a steep correction.61,000% increase -> 86% decreaseSignificant increase, but smaller than the first, and the decline was still close in percentage terms.11,000% increase -> 84% decreaseSmaller increase, the decline remains large, but slightly milder.2,000% increase -> 77% decreaseSignificantly smaller increase compared to previous cycles, and the decline continued to moderate.Observing a descending pattern:The increases seem to be getting smaller and smaller with each cycle, and the decreases also tend to be less severe. This shows diminishing returns on increases and a reduction in market volatility.Estimate for the next increase:Given this pattern, the next percentage increase could be significantly smaller than the last one (2,000%). If we apply a progressive reduction coefficient, as was the case in previous cycles, the increase could be around:~300%-500%.This would mean a maximum increase of 5x from the low of the last cycle, and currently we have an increase of over 600%, that is, 6x. Is this ATH in this bull market?To estimate the duration of the next Bitcoin uptrend, we can analyze how the duration of these uptrend cycles has evolved over time:Historical data:240 days730 days850 days1050 daysNotes:The increase in duration between cycles is not uniform, but follows a general trend of extending duration.The duration increase intervals were:From 240 -> 730: +490 daysFrom 730 -> 850: +120 daysFrom 850 -> 1050: +200 daysAnalysis:The duration extension appears to be accelerating moderately, with an irregular but generally increasing trend.If this pattern continues, the next cycle could add between 200 and 300 days to the previous duration (1050 days).Estimate:The duration of the next cycle could be:~1250-1350 days.This estimate corresponds to a natural extension of Bitcoin cycles, reflecting wider adoption and lower volatility as the market becomes more mature.