Technical analysis by GoldNest_by_Lovewell about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (12/18/2024)

News: On Wednesday (December 18), the market focused on the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the related economic outlook. The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, which would be the third rate cut in a row, which will affect the trend of the US dollar in the short term and have an indirect impact on other market assets. The market is now broadly expecting the Fed to slow the pace of rate cuts further in 2025. Even though the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut tonight, the market is still concerned about the future interest rate path. If the Fed's dot plot predicts a slowdown in rate cuts in 2025, the US dollar could continue to strengthen, thus putting downward pressure on gold and silver. For gold, the strength of the US dollar will make it more expensive against other currencies and suppress its demand. On the other hand, if the Fed's rhetoric is more moderate, suggesting that the pace of future rate cuts may be slower, precious metals may rally. Gold trend analysis: Gold closed yesterday with a long alt shadow and a small shadow, which combined with Monday's pattern to form a small "friction pattern." If this pattern is at a relatively high level with a sustained rise or at a relatively low level with a down wave, this is a reversal signal. will be strong; if it is in the middle of an up or down wave, it will continue to rise. The probability of a continued decline may be higher; from the current perspective, after two major negative prints last Thursday and Friday, this is just a continuation now, so the probability of a continued decline will be higher; at the same time, the 5-day moving average is turning in the following direction: if the market pulls up first today, it will easily fall to the 5-day moving average and below; of course, if there is another continuous sideways movement in a certain range, such as November 26 - December 6, this may weaken the downward momentum; Currently, the 5-day moving average resistance is 2655, the 10-day moving average resistance is 2662. If it rises, it will still maintain a short-term downward correction. For support, continue to pay attention to the path of the last parallel channel alt and the path of a previous ascending channel alt, corresponding to 2628-26 and 2609 respectively; only if it effectively breaks 2609 and closes well below this position, it may open more downside space; At the 4-hour level, the general movement of the Asian and European sessions today is very small. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate announcement and Powell's speech in the second half of the night; continue to pay attention to the gains and losses of the 10-day moving average. If it closes far from or below this moving average, the general pattern of a slow decline is still maintained; only a large positive close above it can effectively break it, but the next resistance is not far away, just at 2655; therefore, in the short term, gold is still under great pressure. Although there are some signs of bottom deviation, the recovery power is still not great; it looks weak below 2650 and volatile below 2664. Short-term short orders can be intervened around 2650 in the evening. Unless the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates, do not consider any long orders before the event, and only consider the ultra-short-term long order wave. And if the Fed decides not to cut interest rates, then you can open a short position for gold and make short-term plans at the midline level. If the overall movement range is not large, it can still fluctuate between 2680-2600;