RVN

Cup Formation of Cup. The breakdown took place.

There are 2 formations. 1- Cup Formation 2- Libra Formation (QML) * When the price of the neckline in the cup handle formation is 0.01375, the process is entered. Target Fibonacchi 2 -level price 0.0143. Stop level is Fibonacchi 0.5 level 0.01354 (Candle is not closing below this level. In the Libra formation, there are 2 points for the processing input. When one contacted the yellow channel and the other when the price contacts 0.01338. 1. OBJECTIVE: 0.01368 2. OBJECTIVE: 0.01391 Stop level: The bottom region is 0.01327. (Even if this price is wick at this price, it will be stopped)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mNQRtNHg/ Ravencoin (RVN) has a unique rhythm. Over the past years, its wedge breakouts have not been random: they aligned with Fibonacci time ratios. Even more remarkable: every major breakout gave traders just 4 weeks to capture the majority of profits before fading. In this article, I’ll outline: How RVN wedges have respected Fibonacci in time. Why the majority of profits disappear within 4 weeks. A structured trading strategy to capture those moves. My falsification criteria – when the thesis fails. Fibonacci Timing in Wedges Traders are familiar with Fibonacci retracements in price, but RVN shows a similar respect for Fibonacci in time. Let’s look at three wedges: Wedge 1 (2019): breakout at ~0.75 of apex → close to 0.786 (fib). Wedge 2 (2021): breakout at ~0.625 → near 0.618 (golden ratio). Wedge 3 (current projection): ~0.702 → not classical, but widely used as the “sweet spot” between 0.618 and 0.786. 👉 RVN breakouts consistently happen within the 0.618–0.786 fib timing window. The 4-Week Profit Window Timing the breakout is only half the story. What happens after the breakout is just as important: In 2019, RVN spiked strongly, but the majority of profits disappeared within 4 weeks. In 2021, the same pattern: explosive breakout, then a retrace that erased most of the move in just 4 weeks. The lesson is clear: RVN wedges give traders about 1 month to take profits. Beyond that, history shows the rally fades. Suggested Strategy To turn history into a plan, here’s my structured exit approach: 10% at breakout (~$0.10) → reclaim initial investment. 20% per week → scale out systematically during weeks 1–4. Remaining position → managed by price action (volume surges, momentum exhaustion, bearish candles). This strategy ensures: You lock in capital at the breakout. You systematically capture the 4-week window. You keep flexibility for exceptional moves without holding too long. Invalidation – When the Thesis Fails No setup is complete without a clear falsification rule. For me, this thesis is invalid if: RVN woggles sideways in the red zone (around wedge resistance) instead of breaking out, or Price fails to attract volume and momentum after breakout. In short: if the wedge breakout doesn’t confirm, the “4-week profit rule” cannot be expected to play out. Risks & Counterpoints Wedges are partly subjective; small differences in trendline drawing change apex timing. Market conditions in 2025–2026 may differ from earlier cycles. Fibonacci time zones are not “scientific laws” but empirical tendencies. That said, the repetition across two major wedges adds real weight to the pattern. Conclusion Ravencoin shows a fascinating Fibonacci time structure: breakouts consistently occur between 0.618 and 0.786 of the wedge apex distance, followed by a 4-week profit window. For traders, the rules are simple: Don’t wait months. Take profits fast. Respect the 4-week window. If the next breakout follows the same script, systematic scaling within the first month will once again separate winners from bagholders.

Ravencoin (RVN) is now standing at one of its most critical levels since 2021. On the weekly chart, we clearly see a Descending Triangle pattern: Lower Highs pressing the price down for years. Strong demand zone around 0.00712 – 0.0130 USDT still holding as the last defense for buyers. Price is now sitting right at the triangle’s apex, which means a major move is coming soon — either breakout or breakdown. --- 🔎 Technical Breakdown Main pattern: Descending Triangle (statistically bearish, but positioned at strong demand). Historical support: 0.00712 – 0.0130 (tested since 2021, sign of strong accumulation). Descending trendline: rejected every rally since 2021, still intact. Key resistances ahead: 0.0190 → 0.0237 → 0.032 → 0.050 → 0.128. Major high: 0.2929 (far above, but valid long-term target if structure flips bullish). --- 🟢 Bullish Scenario Trigger: Weekly close above descending trendline + successful retest, or breakout above 0.0190 USDT. Additional confirmation: Strong volume breakout + weekly RSI reclaiming 50 or showing bullish divergence. Upside targets: 1. 0.0190 (first resistance) 2. 0.0237 (historical barrier) 3. 0.0322 (trend reversal confirmation) 4. 0.0503 (major breakout level) If momentum holds → potential extension toward 0.128. Takeaway: A clean breakout could mark the first long-term bullish trend reversal for RVN in years. --- 🔴 Bearish Scenario Trigger: Weekly close below 0.00712 USDT with strong volume. Consequence: Breakdown from multi-year support → “last fortress” of buyers destroyed. Downside target: Retest 0.0071 (historical low). If lost, RVN may enter deeper price discovery zones. Invalidation of bearish case: Price reclaiming above 0.0190. Takeaway: Losing this demand zone could trigger a strong continuation to the downside. --- ⚖️ Big Picture RVN is at a make-or-break point: Breakout above → long-term trend reversal and new bullish cycle. Breakdown below → bearish continuation with risk of new lows. This is not just a technical setup; it also reflects overall crypto market sentiment. Bitcoin’s next major move will heavily influence RVN. --- 🎯 Strategy Conservative traders: Wait for weekly close confirmation (breakout or breakdown). Aggressive traders: Consider entries inside the demand zone with tight stops below 0.0070. Risk management: Crucial! Weekly setups often bring big moves. --- 📌 Conclusion RVN/USDT is “squeezed” at the apex of a descending triangle right on a multi-year demand zone. Bullish case: breakout → 0.019 → 0.023. Bearish case: breakdown < 0.0071 → opens the door for new lows. Whichever direction plays out, a major RVN move seems very close. --- #RVN #Ravencoin #RVNUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #DescendingTriangle #Altcoin #PriceAction #ChartPattern #CryptoTrading

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YVMMnkxf/ (NOTE: click on this link to get the correct Chart) 🔑 Idea Summary RVN wedge breakouts align with Fibonacci time ratios (0.618 – 0.786). 2019 breakout (~0.75) → profits gone in 4 weeks. 2021 breakout (~0.625) → same 4-week window. 2025 projection (~0.702) → points to another fib-timed breakout. 📌 Key Rule: The majority of profits vanish within 4 weeks. 👉 Take profits fast, respect the 4-week rule, and don’t expect long rallies to hold. Ravencoin (RVN) wedges don’t just respect Fibonacci in price, but also in time. 2019 breakout at ~0.75 of apex → profits gone within 4 weeks. 2021 breakout at ~0.625 of apex → same 4-week pattern. 2025 projection points to ~0.702 of apex. Strategy: ✅ Take 10% at breakout (~$0.10). ✅ Scale 20% per week during weeks 1–4. For me: week 2 to 4 25% I like to take more risk/reward ✅ Manage the remainder with price action. 👉 Don’t wait months — with RVN, the clock starts at breakout.You systematically capture the historical 4-week window. You keep flexibility for extraordinary moves without holding too long. Falsification No pattern is guaranteed. Wedges can be drawn differently, and markets sometimes defy history. But the fact that RVN repeated the same time behavior twice in a row adds weight to the hypothesis. Conclusion Ravencoin offers a rare Fibonacci time structure: wedge breakouts near 0.618–0.786 of the apex distance, followed by a 4-week profit window. For traders, the implication is clear: Don’t wait months. Take profits fast. Respect the 4-week rule. If the next breakout follows the same script, those who scale out systematically in the first month will once again be the ones keeping the profits.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/C9VYs2Ue/ RVN – 5 Reasons Why the Moon May Not Arrive 🚫🌕 “Science is not about proving a thesis — it’s about trying to falsify it.” (Karl Popper) ⚖️ In short Ravencoin bulls see Fibonacci time zones and fractals pointing to late 2025. But: No adoption narrative, Miner sell pressure, Bearish momentum, Weak volume, Macro risk… …all cast doubt on the “moon” scenario. Sometimes, the strongest trade is accepting that price tells the real story, not the narrative. With Ravencoin, the bullish case is easy to make: fractals, Fibonacci time zones, compression. But good analysis also asks: what if the thesis is wrong? Here are five serious counter-arguments against the moon scenario. 🌌 Fundamental arguments 1. No strong adoption narrative Unlike BTC (ETF adoption) or ETH (DeFi + staking), Ravencoin currently lacks a widely embraced use case that could attract large inflows. Without a narrative, price may simply drift sideways. 2. Mining sell pressure RVN is GPU-mined. Whenever price rises, hash rate follows, and miners sell block rewards. This creates a constant headwind that can absorb rallies and flatten parabolic attempts. 📊 Technical arguments 3. Bearish oscillators Long-term RSI and Stochastic still point downward. That signals momentum exhaustion and suggests a final flush is more likely than immediate liftoff. 4. Lack of volume confirmation So far, no “elephant candles” of absorption have appeared. Without volume expansion, the market has not shown real commitment to a new cycle. 5. Macro market risk RVN doesn’t move in a vacuum. If Bitcoin dominance stays high or macro shocks hit (Fed policy, ETF flows, geopolitics), altcoins can be crushed regardless of individual fractals. 🔄 Countering the Bear Case Every bearish argument is valid — but none is decisive. 1. No adoption narrative → Narratives often follow price. In 2021 RVN had no strong narrative either, yet it rallied x20. 2. Mining sell pressure → This has been true since 2018, and it didn’t prevent past parabolas. When demand kicks in, miner supply is easily absorbed. 3. Bearish oscillators → RSI and Stoch are lagging. They often look bearish right until the reversal. Deep oversold can be the “springboard.” 4. Lack of volume confirmation → True now, but one elephant candle can flip the picture overnight. Volume is a trigger, not a long-term forecast. 5. Macro market risk → Outliers can run even in adverse macro conditions. Plus, RVN’s Fibonacci timing lines up with the post-BTC-halving altseason of 2025–2026. ⚖️ Final takeaway: The bear case explains today’s weakness — but not necessarily tomorrow’s breakout. That’s why both sides of the thesis must be tested.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Np0lrx6/ In short: RVN’s breakouts lined up with Fibonacci time counts before. Zone 1 → 2019 breakout. Zone 3 → 2021 breakout. Zone 8 → Oct 27, 2025? If history rhymes, Ravencoin may be preparing its next moonshot right on schedule. 🚀 Ravencoin’s launchpads have followed a surprising Fibonacci rhythm. ⏳ The Time Structure Zone 1 (2018–2019): From genesis until the bar just before the first breakout (Feb 2019). Zone 2: Skipped. Zone 3 (2020–2021): From bottoming until Jan 2021 — again, the bar just before breakout. Zone 5: Skipped. Zone 8 (2025): If the same rhythm holds, we are now approaching the next critical launchpad. 📌 By extrapolation, the Fibonacci sequence (1–2–3–5–8) suggests the next breakout window opens around 27 October 2025. 🧩 Why it matters RVN’s history shows not just price fractals, but time fractals. Each parabola was preceded by a Fibonacci-timed compression phase. Skipping intermediate numbers (2, 5) makes the hits at 1, 3, and now 8 stand out even more. 🎯 Projection Breakout could ignite in late October 2025. Potential parabola similar to 2019 and 2021 cycles. Target range: $0.25 → $0.50 if structure repeats. 📉 Bearish gift scenario The current chart still carries a bearish bias. A dip to $0.010–$0.009 cannot be excluded. Instead of invalidating the setup, such a move would act as a final spring. For long-term holders this is a gift — a last clean add opportunity before liftoff. 📚 Educational sidebar: Why Fibonacci often aligns with market cycles The Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…) is not mystical — it’s structural. Nature & growth: Plants, shells, galaxies, all grow in Fibonacci ratios. Human behavior: Financial markets are driven by collective psychology. Fear, greed, and crowd timing often cluster around these proportions. Markets: Traders unknowingly reinforce these rhythms by using Fibonacci retracements, extensions, and time zones. 👉 The result? Market cycles often “breathe” in Fibonacci counts — not perfectly, but frequently enough to create repeating patterns.

Ravencoin’s launchpads have followed a surprising Fibonacci rhythm! 🚀🌕 In short: RVN’s breakouts lined up with Fibonacci time counts before. Zone 1 → 2019 breakout. Zone 3 → 2021 breakout. Zone 8 → Oct 27, 2025? If history rhymes, Ravencoin may be preparing its next moonshot right on schedule. 🚀 Ravencoin’s launchpads have followed a surprising Fibonacci rhythm. ⏳ The Time Structure Zone 1 (2018–2019): From genesis until the bar just before the first breakout (Feb 2019). Zone 2: Skipped. Zone 3 (2020–2021): From bottoming until Jan 2021 — again, the bar just before breakout. Zone 5: Skipped. Zone 8 (2025): If the same rhythm holds, we are now approaching the next critical launchpad. 📌 By extrapolation, the Fibonacci sequence (1–2–3–5–8) suggests the next breakout window opens around 27 October 2025. 🧩 Why it matters RVN’s history shows not just price fractals, but time fractals. Each parabola was preceded by a Fibonacci-timed compression phase. Skipping intermediate numbers (2, 5) makes the hits at 1, 3, and now 8 stand out even more. 🎯 Projection Breakout could ignite in late October 2025. Potential parabola similar to 2019 and 2021 cycles. Target range: $0.25 → $0.50 if structure repeats. 📉 Bearish gift scenario The current chart still carries a bearish bias. A dip to $0.010–$0.009 cannot be excluded. Instead of invalidating the setup, such a move would act as a final spring. For long-term holders this is a gift — a last clean add opportunity before liftoff. 📚 Educational sidebar: Why Fibonacci often aligns with market cycles The Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…) is not mystical — it’s structural. Nature & growth: Plants, shells, galaxies, all grow in Fibonacci ratios. Human behavior: Financial markets are driven by collective psychology. Fear, greed, and crowd timing often cluster around these proportions. Markets: Traders unknowingly reinforce these rhythms by using Fibonacci retracements, extensions, and time zones. 👉 The result? Market cycles often “breathe” in Fibonacci counts — not perfectly, but frequently enough to create repeating patterns.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WbTrHGhe/ In short: Ravencoin is repeating its 2020–2021 launchpad. Strong base at ~$0.012. Possible final dip to $0.010–0.009 (a “gift” add opportunity). Breakout window: Oct–Nov 2025. Projection: $0.25 → $0.50 if parabola plays out. Fractals aren’t certainties, but RVN is following its own proven roadmap. RVN – Copy/Paste Fractal 2020 → 2025 Fractal overlay method: same coin, same launchpad What you see here is not a random fractal from another asset — it’s Ravencoin’s own parabola from Nov 2020 → Feb 2021. That launchpad has been copy/pasted directly onto the current chart. 🔑 Important note on timeframe: The 2020–2021 sequence was built on weekly candles. The current chart is 2-day candles. That means 1 old candle ≈ 7–8 current candles. In other words, the same structure now plays out at a slower pace — stretched in time. 🧩 Structural similarities Support: Both cycles established a strong base at ~$0.012. Spring dip: Fake breakdown under support → recovery. Compression: Weeks of tight sideways action inside a channel. Breakout trigger: Once the red diagonal breaks, the parabola begins. ⏳ Timing roadmap 2020–2021 launchpad lasted ~3 months. Adjusted for the slower “7–8x candle speed,” the current launchpad could extend until Oct–Nov 2025. That lines up perfectly with the ongoing channel compression. 📉 Bearish bias scenario The current timeframe still carries a bearish bias. That means a final washout toward $0.010 or even $0.009 cannot be excluded. Instead of invalidating the fractal, such a move would actually strengthen it: It would act as the “spring” flush, identical to 2020. For long-term holders, this would be a gift — a last, clean add opportunity before parabola ignition. 🎯 Potential projection First breakout target: $0.25. Stretch potential: $0.50 (if the parabola mirrors 2021). ⚠️ Key takeaway Fractals aren’t predictions, they’re roadmaps of market psychology. The shapes rhyme — but amplitude and timing can shift. Still, Ravencoin is repeating its own proven playbook.

Ravencoin – My Risk Management and Entry Strategy 🔎 In short (My Trading Plan) Max RVN exposure: 20% of capital (not fun but tolerable even if setup fails). Entry split: 50% in launchpad ($0.012–0.020), 20% on confirmed breakout (2–3× volume), remainder only if breakout holds. Risk scenarios: Fail = –10% to –20%; Success = asymmetric upside. Note: this is my plan - this works for me, my personal situation & risk tolerance - you must do what works for your risk tolerance & situation. Wisdom: Loss is real, profits are air — and while BTC may 2× RVN’s asymmetry could reach 200×. Risk management is more important than any setup. Rule #1: Don’t lose money. Rule #2: Go back to Rule #1. That means: never risk what you can’t afford to lose — not rent, food, tuition. Only deploy capital that you can carry through a complete failure of the setup. 🎯 Maximum Position Size For me, the absolute maximum position is 20% of my total free available capital in RVN. This is the most I can justify, mentally & economically because even in a complete failure the loss remains tolerable. 📈 Entry: Spreading the Risk The key decision is not if to enter, but how. Early entry → cheaper price, but if the setup fails, you are immediately underwater. Breakout entry (“the elephant”) → higher price, but confirmation through volume and structure. The solution: the golden mean. 🧭 My Allocation Plan 50% accumulated around $0.012–0.020 (launchpad zone). 10% 20% added on breakout in increments of 2 days if confirmed by 2–3× volume and if the second daily candle does not collapse back into the wedge. Remainder added only if the breakout holds and develops strength. If price leaves without me → No problem at all! I am happy to keep the position smaller because chasing a higher entry destroys risk–reward. ⚖️ Risk Scenarios If RVN breaks out on high volume but immediately fails → 20% risk. If RVN never breaks out and collapses from the launchpad → 10% risk. If the setup succeeds → asymmetric upside, multiples of the risk taken. 💡 Core Wisdom It is wise to look first at the potential loss, not to get carried away by possible winnings — because at this stage, profits are still only air. Loss is real, profits are not yet realized. For Bitcoin, maybe a 2× remains possible in a mania. For Ravencoin, the asymmetric potential is closer to 200×. That is why discipline on the downside matters most. 🎯 Reducing Risk Even Further To make sure risk stays under control, I take 10% off the table immediately at $0.15. This early profit is enough to cover the entry cost. From that point forward, the remaining position is effectively “house money”. Psychological benefit: less stress, more patience to ride the parabola. Strategic benefit: downside becomes negligible, while upside remains open. ✅ Core Principle Once the entry is repaid, the trade is no longer about survival, it’s about opportunity. If RVN fails after that, the trade costs me nothing. If RVN succeeds, the remainder of the position compounds into asymmetric gains. ✅ Conclusion Risk is always real. But by defining a maximum position size and staggered entries, I ensure that failure means a contained loss, while success means life-changing reward. That’s why risk management is not an afterthought — it’s the core of the trade. Final Note “Risk is real, profits are air — discipline pays.”