PierrePressure

التحلیل الکلی: قبل التعمق فی الجوانب الفنیة، دعونا أولاً نفحص المشهد الکلی الأوسع الذی یؤثر على تحرکات السوق الحالیة، ولا سیما الترکیز على مؤشر أسعار المستهلک (CPI) والنصف Bitcoin: مؤشر أسعار المستهلک (CPI): فی مارس، تجاوز التضخم، المقاس بمؤشر أسعار المستهلک، التوقعات بزیادة قدرها 0.4% مقارنة مع 0.3% المتوقعة. وأثار هذا التضخم المرتفع مخاوف بشأن الارتفاع المحتمل فی أسعار الفائدة، مما قد یقلل سیولة السوق ویؤثر سلبًا على أصول المخاطر. وکان هناک أمل بین المستثمرین فی سیاسة نقدیة أکثر مرونة فی الولایات المتحدة، وهو ما یشیر إلیه انخفاض التضخم والتخفیضات المحتملة فی أسعار الفائدة. ومع ذلک، فإن الارتفاع غیر المتوقع فی مؤشر أسعار المستهلک خفف من هذه التوقعات. Bitcoin النصف: من المتوقع أن یؤدی حدث النصف Bitcoin، الذی یحدث کل أربع سنوات، إلى بدء دورة ربح مدتها 80 أسبوعًا. إن المزید من الموافقات على صنادیق الاستثمار المتداولة BTC، لا سیما فی الولایات المتحدة وهونج کونج، تحمل القدرة على جذب الاستثمار المؤسسی إلى السوق. وسط التحدیات فی أسواق الأسهم والعقارات المحلیة، قد یلجأ المستثمرون الصینیون إلى Bitcoin کأصل بدیل. تحیط المضاربات بتخفیضات محتملة فی أسعار الفائدة فی وقت لاحق من عام 2024، مع خفض بمقدار 25 نقطة أساس بالفعل فی اجتماع اللجنة الفیدرالیة للسوق المفتوحة (FOMC) فی سبتمبر. على الرغم من التأثیر المثبط لمؤشر أسعار المستهلک الأعلى من المتوقع على معنویات السوق، فإن العوامل المتفائلة مثل خفض سعر الفائدة إلى Bitcoin إلى النصف، وموافقات صنادیق الاستثمار المتداولة، والتخفیضات المحتملة فی أسعار الفائدة فی وقت لاحق من العام یمکن أن توفر الراحة. التحلیل الفنی: فی الإطار الزمنی ساعة واحدة، یظهر BTC اختراقًا من قناة موازیة هابطة. على الرغم من الزخم الهبوطی الذی تشیر إلیه الخلفیة الکلیة، باعتباری متداولًا على نمط الرسم البیانی، فإننی أعطی الأولویة لاغتنام الفرص عند ظهورها. وبغض النظر عن المشاعر الصعودیة أو الهبوطیة، فإن الاختراق الهیکلی الذی لوحظ فی 18 أبریل، مع تراجع الأسعار حول 63.5، یمثل نقطة دخول مواتیة. أخطط لبدء صفقة شراء طالما بقی الدعم عند هذا المستوى. ومن خلال التوسع عند 64.2، أنوی الاستمرار فی نشر رأس المال بینما نتقدم نحو اتجاه صعودی مفضل، مع الترکیز على 65.5 کنقطة دخول محتملة أخرى. تعد إدارة المخاطر أمرًا بالغ الأهمیة، وأنا مستعد لسحب متواضع، مع تحدید مستویات جنی الأرباح على النحو التالی: TP1 66.9 تی بی 2 69.1 تب 3 71.2 سی 61.8

الماکرو: مع قضیة Ripple التی تقترب من قرار ، أدخلت XRP راداری على الرغم من عدم الیقین فیما یتعلق بتصنیفها کضمان. استجاب Ripple لرسالة السلطة الإضافیة لـ SEC ، متنازعًا على سابقة الجهة المنظمة القانونیة وزیادة الشکوک حول قابلیة تطبیق الأوراق المالیة Act على التموج. سیتم مراقبة التطورات الإضافیة حول القضیة عن کثب. Recap:* یرد محامو التموج على خطاب السلطة الإضافیة التابعة لجنة الأوراق المالیة والبورصة الأمریکیة (SEC) الذی یشیر إلى سابقة قانونیة یزعم أنها تمنح المسجل للدفاع عن الإشعار العادل. "إن لغة أی قانون جنائی واضحة بما فیه الکفایة لإخطار بموضوعیة حول ما هو محظور" وهی جزء من دفاع Ripple ضد مزاعم SEC فی SEC v. Ripple Paruit. مختلف. حالیا ، XRP فی نمط مثلث متماثل على الأطر الزمنیة العلیا (4HR ، 1D). سأبحث عن اندلاع فوق القمة لدخول موقع طویل أو انهیار للحصول على فرصة قصیرة. الإدخال والأهداف هی کما یلی: الإدخال: .55TP1: .62TP2: .72TP3:. لا تأخذ الاستجابة فی الاعتبار ظروفک الفردیة أو وضعک المالی ، وأی قرارات استثمار تتخذها تستند إلى البحث والتحلیل الخاص بک. یمکن أن یؤدی إعداد الإدخالات على مستویات FIB الرئیسیة إلى تقلیل الإیجابیات الخاطئة وزیادة احتمال النجاح فی أی من الاتجاهین. یجب أن نعطی XRP الوقت لتسویة وإظهار یدها قبل ضبط استراتیجیتنا وفقًا لذلک. یمکننا أن نتعامل مع أی من الاتجاهین بناءً على حرکة الأسعار. لا یزال الدخول الطویل والأهداف کما هو. انظر أدناه للحصول على الدخول القصیر والأهداف إذا کان XRP یعطینا فرصة للاختصار. الإدخال: .49 TP1: .46 TP2: .44TP3: .42MACRO UPDATE: أطلقت Ripple مرکز سیولة للشرکات لسد الفجوة بین العملات المشفرة والفیات ، ولکن XRP تم استبعادها بشکل مدهش من البرنامج التجریبی. أوضح کبیر المسؤولین القانونیین فی Ripple أن مرکز السیولة یستهدف العملاء المؤسسیین بدلاً من مستثمری التجزئة ، وقد تم تصمیمه للوصول إلى جمیع أنواع سیولة التشفیر ، ولیس فقط XRP. إن الافتقار إلى السیولة والوضوح التنظیمی لـ XRP فی الولایات المتحدة هی الأسباب الرئیسیة لعدم إدراجها فی البرنامج التجریبی. ومع ذلک ، فإن Ripple مفتوح لدعم XRP فی مرکز السیولة فی المستقبل ، شریطة أن یوفر تجربة عملاء جیدة ووضوح تنظیمی. مبیعات Ripple التی تبلغ قیمتها XRP جمیعها جمیعًا لعملاء السیولة عند الطلب (ODL) ، مما یشیر إلى الطلب القوی على المنتج على مستوى العالم. HUB فی المستقبل ، شریطة أن توفر تجربة جیدة للعملاء ووضوح تنظیمی* RIPPLE مبیعات XRP جمیعها لعملاء السیولة عند الطلب (ODL) ، مما یشیر إلى طلب عالمی قوی على المنتج. تم تنشیط إدخال قصیر لـ XRP وتم الوصول إلى مستوى الاستیلاء الأول. أتوقع الرفض فی 100 EMA ، والذی یتوافق أیضًا مع انهیار محتمل أسفل نمط المثلث المتماثل السفلی. XRP مستمر فی اتجاهه الهبوطی مع انخفاض التخصصات ، BTC و ETH. فی حالة حدوث أی مسیرات إغاثة ، سأشاهد الانعکاسات على مستویات إعادة صیاغة حاسمة فیبوناتشی ، وتحدیداً 0.5 عند 0.46 دولار و 0.382 عند 0.49 دولار. لا یوجد دعم کبیر عند 0.46 دولار ، لذلک من المحتمل أن یدفع الدببة الزخم بنجاح نحو 0.44 دولار ، وهو سعرنا المستهدف الثانی (TP2). سأحافظ على موقفی وسأضیف إلى موقفنا ونقترب من TP2.LAL MARTS MET. إلى التالی.

ETH is currently forming an ascending channel in the higher time frame (HTF). Although the position is currently neutral, the lower trend line needs to be respected for the accumulation of long positions at each bounce. A bullish signal can be expected if the price continues to respect the lower trend line. As long as the price advances and trades within the channel, the trend is relatively bullish. However, a break below the lower trend line would indicate a trend change. The desired scenario is a breakout above the channel line with strong volume, which would be bullish and could lead to a strong price advance. A confirmed breakout and retest at $1864 (weekly resistance) is required, followed by a push towards $2030, which involves cracking weekly and monthly resistance.Early entry: 1.8 Entry: 2.0 TP 1: $2345 TP 2: $2718TP3: $2948 Please note that the information provided is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered trading advice or personal investment advice. The response does not take into account your individual circumstances or financial situation, and any investment decisions you make should be based on your own research and analysis.On the 4-hour time frame, we're observing a flag pattern as the price navigates the ascending channel on the 1D time frame, which adds to the confluence of bullish bias. However, it's important to note that the overall trend is still sideways, and the direction of BTC will be a significant factor in determining the trend. Stack odds in our favor before entering the trade.As we wait for BTC to break 28k mark, and move toward our ETH trading roadmap, let's examine the fundamental factors behind ETH and its upcoming Shanghai upgrade, scheduled for April 12, 2023. The upgrade may lead to two contrasting effects: investors may either sell their ETH as they withdraw their staked tokens or buy more ETH as they seek higher yields. The withdrawal process may cause some selling, but it's expected to have a minor impact. The increased rewards and interest in ETH based LSDs may boost their value and attract more funds, increasing their TVL and overall valuation. This could be more bullish trend for ETH-based LSDs as they can withdraw their staked ETH at any time.*Shanghai upgrade for ETH is expected to have minimal impact on selling due to the withdrawal process and limited daily withdrawal limit for staked ETH.*The reduction in the number of validators and the deflationary nature of ETH may boost buyers to hold and stake.*LSDs are experiencing a surge in value pre-upgrade as they offer an easier way to stake without a minimum deposit (32ETH).The breakout of ETH from the Flag pattern in the 4HR chart is a positive indication of a structural shift. We've begun scaling in, but on the 1D timeframe, we've hit the high at 1892 and exited the ascending channel pattern. For those who prefer lower risk, scaling in at the 2k level would be a viable option. Remember to adjust your stop losses, mark your invalidation levels, and avoid getting wick’d out.Nice breakthrough here tapping the high at 1916. Safe to say we've completely left the ascending channel on the daily time frame. I'll look to deploy size during the expected pullback. So far so good.As we anticipated this pullback, I’m adding to my ETH position at these levels leading up to the Shanghai upgrade. I have no intention of reducing my risk exposure as the price is supported by a solid 1845 level and the 4-hour chart shows the price above our flag pattern coinciding with the .382 retracement fib.
For those who have been tracking the BTC trade idea, the prolonged consolidation may reach a resolution with the March CPI data scheduled on April 12th, coinciding with the Shanghai/Cappella upgrade. As a result, I don't mind padding long positions here until the price sweeps through my invalidation levels. On April 12th, the macro spotlight will be on the following: Inflation rate MoM, core inflation rate MoM, core inflation rate YoY, CPI, and FOMC minutes.ETH is closely tracking the initial momentum of BTC. A positive sign of a strong uptrend towards the Shanghai upgrade in 48 hours would be a test above our prior peak of 1943. Despite analysts' repeated assertions that the upgrade will not have a significant impact on the market and has already been priced in, I believe there is still a considerable amount of potential for growth. This surge is a sneak peek of what may be in store.The price of ETH reached 1939, falling short of our previous high of 1943. Nevertheless, this demonstrates positive momentum above the 1900 level. I'll monitor the market for consolidation at this level, as we approach the Shanghai / Capella upgrade and the publication of CPI data within the next 24 hours. On the downside, bears may have created a double top (1st top 1943 and 2nd top 1939) with a neckline at 1825, attempting to push the price lower. We can hold off increasing our risk exposure due to the upcoming macroeconomic events. Reminder, we want to observe, validate and confirm P/A before adding to our risk.Moving forward, we should keep an eye on two scenarios. Firstly, a bearish trend (4HR chart) with a double top forming and a potential breakout below the neckline at 1825. Secondly, a bullish trend with consolidation above 1900 and the potential to leverage positive macro sentiment to surpass the previous high in 1943. Taking our the previous high is our signal for uptrend continuation.Post Shapella / EIP 4895 Update: Following the Shapella upgrade, over 1.3bn worth of Ether has been withdrawn with an average of 380mn per day. Additionally, there are currently 17.5mn Ether staked, accounting for roughly 15% of the total Ether supply. This data highlights the high demand for Ether and the continued interest in Ethereum's proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, which in my view could provide a sustained rally. Lastly, considering the amount of ETH being sold in the market, it is probable that there will be a surge in selling pressure in the short run. However, this should be seen as a minor correction due to the withdrawal limits.CPI and FOMC minutes Update: See BTC trade idea for added reference.ETH invalidated the double top on the technical front, and bears are attempting to push the price toward the neckline at 1825. Despite this, ETH is exhibiting stability above the 1900 level and consolidating on a bullish trend line. It has been printing higher lows starting from 1687, 1764, 1824, and 1856. Keep an eye on these P/A bounces off our bullish trendline. Still waiting on confirmation for the price to attack the most recent high at 1943. Although it's worth noting we've made several runs at this level in 1939 and 1934. Holding here.ETH has surged past its previous high 1943 (third times the charm) and reached a new high of the day (NHOD) at 2131 post-Shappella upgrade, in line with the potential rally highlighted earlier. While the bullish thesis has great optics, it's important to note that ETH has gone through 12 bars, 2d in 426k volume, which could indicate a correction in the short term. Nevertheless, the next crucial step is to look for a S/R flip above the key level of 2030 to sustain momentum. Open position up 14% from entry. Stay the course. Nuance: Short-term consolidation leading to a massive bullish candle can be a strong signal, but it's important to analyze the broader market context and underlying fundamentals to determine if the price action is sustainable. Be patient and let the trade come to you, no need to be trigger-happy, the correction will come and we'll snipe bearish wick to pad our position.Despite experiencing a 9% drop from its previous high of 2142, ETH has shown signs of a potential correction with a short period of consolidation and breakout referenced earlier in this thread. While the bears are currently driving the momentum down, from a structural perspective, ETH is still maintaining higher lows along the top of our initial ascending channel pattern. If the bears continue to push the price down and breach 1832, our position will be invalidated. To mitigate our risk, we have deployed tight stops and will break even on this trade if the decline persists. We are also hedging against bearish momentum with our XRP trade idea. It's important to note that our position is still open, and we can let it run until it breaks higher lows, given our scaled-in position. Open pos 2% in the black.

I am waiting for price action to confirm my bullish bias in the ascending triangle set up on the daily chart for BTC. I will enter the trade at 25.3, which is a major resistance level, after a breakout and retest. The potential upside is 22% with target profits at 26.6, 28, and 31.6. To mitigate risk, I will implement a trailing stop loss as I reach each profit target.ENTRY: 25.3 TP1: 26.6 TP2: 28 TP 3 31.6Update: Solid breakout here BTC hovering at 25.6, need a restest for confirmation and we're off.Update: BTC broke weekly resistance at 26.6, expect momentum towards 1MR. Adjust S/L for high downside wicks hunting stops.Update: TP1 and TP2 have been attained. To safeguard gains on bearish wicks, adjust the stop losses. Although it will be demanding to reach TP3, which is the monthly resistance, the market structure has not yet been disrupted.The long position is still active, but I am waiting for tomorrow's FOMC meeting to observe the market's response. In the event that the FOMC generates a positive sentiment and encourages risk-taking in equities, we can expect the ongoing trend toward value drive to lead to taking profits at 31.6. However, if the market experiences a sudden drop and the FOMC signals bearishness, I will close this position and likely open a short position. Both scenarios offer valuable trading opportunities. It's important to note that bearish price action is beginning to form in the LTF, as its price is currently following an ascending wedge pattern.+50bps flip bearish +25bps continuation TP3We are currently maintaining our position, as the Fed appears to be favoring a more cautious approach. The market's response has paused and is receiving backing at our weekly 26.6 structure. It's probable that we'll experience volatility until we obtain a substantial directional inclination. We shouldn't consider switching to a short position until we breach the 26.6 support level. Despite the price moving downwards out of the ascending wedge, those with a bearish outlook should note that the 50 EMA and weekly support are providing support.Recap of FOMC: * Economic indicators stronger than expected* No longer anticipate ongoing rate increases appropriate due to the banking crisis* Recent banking events may result in tighter credit conditions impacting the economy and response* Incoming data and effects of tighter credit conditions are closely monitored and used as the basis for decisions* Projections, not a plan, the path will adjust as appropriate* Meeting-by-meeting decisions based on the totality of data* Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growthCurrently, the price of BTC is ranging from a top range of 28k and a bottom range of 26.6. It is difficult to determine whether there is an uptrend or downtrend at this point. For those who are familiar with ADX, the current reading is at 19.12, indicating a weak trend via chop. For those who are not familiar with ADX, it is an oscillator that measures the strength of a trend on a scale of 0-100. A reading below 20 indicates a weak trend, while a reading above 50 indicates a strong trend. Unlike stochastics, ADX doesn't determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish; it simply measures the strength of the current trend. ADX is a useful tool for identifying whether the market is ranging or experiencing a strong uptrend or downtrend based on price action.To check the ADX, locate the indicator tab and look for it.Holding here and watching the above levels as mentioned. Until then, patience is the name of the game.I am eager to observe BTC's daily closing price. BTC is currently testing the lower range at 26.6, but it is worth noting the presence of a low-volume node. We should be well-prepped for that BTC low range as we've been highlighting the lows on this thread.Bulls have made an impressive recovery from Monday's bearish candlestick, regaining control. We're waiting for a clear breakthrough and retest of the 28k ceiling before adding to our position. Our long position is active, with a target of TP3 for a potential 12% increase. Stay committed to the plan as we've already gained 11% from our entry at 25.3. The trend is range-bound, but momentum favors the bulls.BTC pushing here, hello $29,190. Our strategy is to wait for confirmation of a sustained rally, keeping a close eye on the 4-hour and 1-day time frames to ensure the price closes above the 28k zone. Once we receive confirmation, we can increase our position and maximize our risk-reward ratio. It's important not to bid at the 28s level as it could lead to a decrease in our risk-reward ratio if this movement turns out to be a false breakout. Our approach should be to observe, validate, and confirm before taking any action. Never compromise our R:R based on a single bullish candlestick. Instead, we should focus on identifying sustained rallies.BTC has formed a rectangle top pattern on the 4-hour chart after reaching its third peak on the 29th and experiencing a shortfall on the 30th. There is a 47% chance of a breakthrough above the upper boundary, according to Bulkowski's research on rectangle top patterns. For the pattern to be valid, it must have three peaks, two valleys, and a shortfall. The price closed above the 50 EMA on the 30th at 21hrs and never came near the lower limit at 26.6. A breakthrough above $28,650 could allow us to exceed 29k and add to our position, but it's important to note that this is just a forecast and nothing is certain.The market has failed to break out of the upper boundary of the rectangle top 4H, causing the price action to remain range-bound. We should continue to observe the market and wait for a clear rally in either direction. If we break above, we can add to our risk and ride to 31k. Alternatively, if we break and retest below 26.6, we can short and ride the momentum to 23.9. I will share the short levels when the time comes. We should avoid scalping at levels where the price is ranging with small risk-to-reward ratios and instead position ourselves to maximize our hits.Bitcoin's price saw a temporary setback after reaching a high of 29,190, but the indicators remain optimistic on the higher time frames. The RSI remains above 50, indicating that the bulls are still in control, and the MACD lines are also well above the zero lines, reinforcing the bullish outlook. However, bearish signals are starting to emerge in the lower time frames.The market has been consolidating for 16 days, which may indicate a stronger level of support or resistance at a certain price level, potentially leading to a stronger breakout in either direction when the consolidation period ends. A strong move above or below the key level of $28.6K or $26.6K could occur.On the macro front, inflation numbers set for April 12th could provide clarity on the trajectory of market sentiment. Reports on March CPI, FOMC minutes, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence will offer further insight into the state of the consumer. These indicators, combined with our key levels, may better indicate where the market is heading.BTC pushing here and testing 29,190. I'm looking to pad our longs once this closes above our key level.Looking closely at LTF, we can see a positive rebound from our crucial level. Added 29166.BTC hit the 30k mark which is a significant phych level, with only 4% left to reach TP3. We're anticipating a boost on Wednesday to help us surpass this hurdle, but it's crucial to manage your risk-reward ratio as selling pressure may increase due to profit-taking from spot traders.Just a friendly nudge, if you haven't already, it's advisable to adjust your stop loss upwards now. This is how we protect our profits as the market continues to rise. It's worth noting that we're currently operating with profits already secured. Additionally, it's worth considering that the breach of the 29,190 price level has broken resistance on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes, which adds some nuance to the trade.BTC price rose above 30.5K on the back of a soft CPI YoY and MoM, in line with our bullish outlook. Spot traders are booking profits at these levels, as expected. With the FOMC Minutes due, a soft inflation report is increasing selling pressure on the US dollar, which could provide further insights into the Fed's rate outlook and impact on BTC's continued rally as risk assets are supported.Recap CPI: *US CPI YoY and MoM both came in below market expectations, supporting Bitcoin's bullish thesis.*BTC climbed past the 30.5K level ahead of the release, indicating the potential for continued gains.*The US Dollar's selling pressure has increased, which is positive for risk assets for the majors. Nuance: *Nearly all cryptocurrencies in the top 30 assets have yielded gains in response to the US CPI data release.We're awaiting the FOMC minutes to confirm the Fed's "dovish" outlook and forecast their next steps on rate hikes for the rest of the year, which will be published at 11:00 AM PST.FOMC Minutes, Update: The FOMC's recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4¾ to 5 percent, increase the interest rate paid on reserve balances, and raise the primary credit rate could potentially indicate a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, which may tighten financial conditions and impact risk assets like BTC. However, the Committee remains attentive to inflation risks and is willing to adjust its approach if necessary, so the impact on BTC and other risk assets remains uncertain.On the other hand, the soft CPI numbers from the recent release suggest that inflation may not be rising as quickly as previously feared, which could ease some pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates. This could be viewed positively for risk assets like BTC, as it may decrease the risk of inflation eroding their value. Additionally, if the Fed continues to be accommodative, it may motivate investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets like crypto in general.Now we have a backdrop on the macro— let's dive into the charts. BTC tested and held the 29.6K support level and is currently trading above it and the 100 EMA. BTC could see a strong increase if it closes above the resistance zones at 30.3K and 30.5K previous high on the hourly, with immediate support at 29.8K and the next major support at 29.6K. In summary, BTC is currently trading within a narrower range, and breaking either the upper or lower boundaries will provide clarity on its momentum.On 30.9, BTC reached an NHOD (new high of the day). Currently, we're 2.5% away from TP3. It is advisable to maintain the course and start taking profits. Reducing position size here and moving up our S/L in a tighter range.BTC is currently deviating from its new range with a high of 30.5 and a low of 29.6, which has caught the attention of bears. They have an intention to continue their momentum towards the key S/R flip at 29.1K. However, because we have reduced our position size and took healthy profits, there is no need to worry about how this will play out. Our 25.3 triggered entry already secured a 22% upside potential with a target of 31k. Moving forward, we need to observe how BTC plays out and monitor the crucial support level at 29.1. If the bears manage to break down this support, we can expect to see a new level where the previous range lows will be swept, creating a new opportunity for a short position. I'll share further details on this in a new idea stream and will close this out if P/A invalidates the bullish thesis. Until then stay patient as we trade this level by level.Trade concluded. Our position was stopped out since bears successfully drove the price below the critical S/R flip at 29.1. Due to the strong downward momentum, tight stops were employed. Ultimately, we managed to maximize gains on this swing trade, achieving the initial target of a 22% upside. Congrats, on staying the course. On to the next!