التحليل الفني ThetaNomad تحليل حول رمز BTC: شراء (25‏/11‏/2025) مُقتَرَح

Traders, Bitcoin might be preparing a short squeeze. Let’s walk through the flow, structure, math, and correlations step-by-step so you understand what is happening and why it matters. 1. What Happened Bitcoin dumped from 96k → 80.6k last week. Price then bounced and is now trading around 87k. Under the surface: Stablecoin-Margined Futures (USDT-M) Since 27 Oct: OI increased from 225k → 280k contracts That’s +55k contracts (~24% increase) CVD went down, not up Meaning: These new positions were mostly shorts The market added leveraged short exposure during the dump Interpretation: USDT-M traders attacked the move lower aggressively. Increasing OI + dropping CVD = new sellers dominating, not buyers. Coin-Margined Futures (BTC-M) Since 27 Oct: OI and CVD both dropped from 7.41B → 5.90B BTC-M is usually “higher conviction” demand A drop in BTC-M CVD means Longs closing Capitulation Reduced bullish positioning Interpretation: Native BTC longs stepped aside. Short-term leverage traders pressed the downside. Spot + Futures CVD (27 Oct → 21 Nov) Spot CVD ↓ Futures CVD ↓ Price ↓ All making lower lows and lower highs This was a clean, correlated downtrend. 2. The First Major Shift: Spot CVD Divergence Since 21 November: Spot CVD: Higher highs Higher lows Rising together with price Indicates real demand stepping in Stablecoin Futures (USDT-M): Still making lower lows Still pressing shorts Still fighting the spot buyers This is the key: Spot = real money Futures = leveraged speculation Rising spot CVD vs falling futures CVD = absorption pattern Meaning: Strong hands buy Weak shorts keep selling Price rises anyway The pressure builds Shorts eventually run out The squeeze begins This is one of the cleanest pre-squeeze structures you can get. 3. The Math: Fibonacci Rotation Logic Let’s break down the structure. (A → B → C Structure) A = 116k (27 Oct) B = 98.710 C = 107.403 (retracement) The retrace sits at 0.5. The reciprocal extension is 2.0 The 2.0 extension lands exactly at the 21 Nov wick (~81k) This is a perfect harmonic rotation. (X → Z → A Extension) X = 06 Oct high Z = 18 Oct low A = 27 Oct high Fibonacci extension from X → Z → A: 1.618 extension = 80.544 It matches the 2.0 from the ABC structure It matches the 0.886 retracement on the HTF Three independent mathematical signals hitting the same level. This is extremely rare and confirms the 81k zone as a rotation completion. 4. Structure Break Since the 10 Nov low: 4H is making higher highs & higher lows The descending trendline from 11 Nov is broken Trend shifted from controlled downtrend → early reversal Structure now favors continuation upwards as long as higher lows hold Interpretation: Sellers who relied on the trendline no longer have control. 4.5 Intermarket Correlation: Why Bitcoin Dumped When ES Dumped Another important factor: Bitcoin dumped because ES dumped. From 12 Nov → 21 Nov: S&P500 (ES) Dropped from 6900 → 6525 –5.43% correction Bitcoin: Dropped from 107k → 80.5k –24.77% correction BTC acted as a ~4.5× levered version of ES. BTC acted as a ~4.5× levered version of ES. Correlation Data: Rolling BTC/ES correlation increased from 0.38 → 0.74 Meaning BTC traded almost in sync with equities during the selloff Why? Risk-Off Mechanics When ES sells off: Equity funds de-risk Macro algos rotate out of high beta Volatility spikes Systematic funds reduce exposure Crypto is treated as “high beta tech” BTC amplifies the move by a factor of 3–5× Bitcoin didn’t dump because crypto was weak — It dumped because macro markets were risk-off. Why this matters now ES has stabilized BTC stopped following ES lower Spot demand started rising BTC/ES correlation is dropping again (from 0.78 → ~0.55) USDT-M shorts didn’t adjust This is exactly when short squeezes start on BTC: Macro stabilizes Crypto regains independence Shorts remain positioned for risk-off Spot buyers take control Price accelerates upward This is a classic intermarket correlation unwind. 5. USDT Dominance (USDT.D) Confirms Risk Rotation USDT dominance has turned down, which means: Traders are deploying capital Less stablecoin sitting idle More risk-on appetite Historically aligns with BTC beginning new legs up after HTF rotations When USDT.D falls at the same time spot CVD rises, the market is shifting capital into crypto. 6. Targets: 118.5k → 124k These are the next liquidity magnets. Target #1: 118.5k Confluences with: 1.141 extension of the 11 Nov → 12 Nov move First major liquidity pool First real “decision point” for the market Target #2: 124k Confluences with: A weak high that will be swept 1.618 extension of the same 11→12 Nov move Natural squeeze exhaustion zone Perfect location for a Swing Fail Pattern Rotation Logic Shallow retraces → larger extensions (1.618 → 2.0) Deep retraces → smaller extensions (1.272 → 1.414) BTC currently fits the shallow retrace profile → favors strong extension 7. Other Pivot Points Marked on the chart: Minor LVNs Minor-imbalances CME Gaps Expect reaction at each point. 8. Invalidation & Bearish Pathway My invalidation is clear: Trading below 80k invalidates the squeeze setup. Below 80k, the absorption breaks. If 80k is lost, the downside extension levels become: 74k 70k 64k These levels are: The natural downside extension pathways from the 11 Nov → 21 Nov swing They form the mirrored rotation of the bullish structure Final View We dumped because macro went risk-off Bitcoin amplified the ES selloff Shorts loaded heavily into the move Spot buyers stepped in first A clean absorption pattern formed Mathematical rotation completed at ~81k Structure flipped Risk metrics like USDT.D turned down Correlation with ES is now unwinding If Bitcoin continues to hold above 80k and spot keeps leading, the squeeze toward 118.5k → 124k becomes the most likely path. Abbreviation List BTC – Bitcoin ES – S&P500 E-Mini Futures OI – Open Interest CVD – Cumulative Volume Delta USDT-M – Stablecoin-Margined Futures BTC-M – Coin-Margined Futures HTF – Higher Timeframe LVN – Low Volume Node AVWAP – Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price PRZ – Potential Reversal Zone SFP – Swing Fail Pattern Fib – Fibonacci CTA – Commodity Trading Advisor (systematic trend-following funds) VIX – Volatility Index Beta – Sensitivity of an asset’s movement relative to a benchmark Risk-Off – Market environment where investors reduce exposure to risky assets Risk-On – Market environment where investors increase exposure to risky assets ----- If you enjoy this type of deep, data-driven breakdown—spot vs futures, CVD flow, intermarket correlation, and rotation math—drop a like and leave a comment. It helps me see whether these higher-level analyses bring value, and it motivates me to keep sharing them for free.Order Flow Data: ibb.co/Z642YLNm ibb.co/prLWKp63Another key signal: Aggregated funding across all perp exchanges flipped heavily negative after the last low. This almost never happens. Why it matters -> Shorts are paying big to stay short -> Longs are getting paid to hold -> Market is heavily skewed short This usually happens at or near bottoms, not tops When funding nukes this hard while price stabilizes, BTC has almost always squeezed upward afterward (2021, 2023, even the COVID crash). -> Deep negative funding + rising spot demand = Classic pre-squeeze conditions.Price broke out of the local structure. 91930$ is the next important level to watch.I closed all my long positions. Economic events around the world might take SP500 and equities lower, which will take Crypto down as well. Be Cautious.