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XAUUSD Gold: Targeting 4500 Amidst Geopolitical Uncertainty! Why is Gold Rising? (Fundamental Drivers) Before we delve into the technicals, it's crucial to understand the fundamental tailwinds propelling Gold higher. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, thrives on uncertainty and acts as a hedge against various global risks: Geopolitical Tensions: Heightened global instability, particularly from conflicts (e.g., the Israel-Hamas conflict, lingering geopolitical frictions), fuels demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Investors seek security in times of crisis, parking capital in assets perceived as less volatile than equities or other risk assets. Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflationary pressures, even as central banks hike rates, often drive investors towards gold as a store of value. While higher interest rates can increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, the fear of future currency devaluation pushes capital into the precious metal. Central Bank Demand: Many central banks globally have been net buyers of gold, diversifying their reserves away from traditional fiat currencies. This consistent institutional demand provides a strong underlying bid for gold prices. Anticipation of a Fed Pivot/Dollar Weakness: While the US Dollar has shown resilience, market participants often anticipate a eventual pivot from the Federal Reserve towards less aggressive monetary policy or even rate cuts in the future. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, boosting demand. Technical Momentum: Once a strong uptrend is established, technical buying pressure often kicks in, as traders follow the trend and push prices further up. Technical Analysis (4H Timeframe): 4-hour chart for XAUUSD paints a clear picture of a controlled ascent within an ascending channel, indicating a healthy uptrend. Strong Uptrend & Higher Lows: Gold has been making consistent higher highs and higher lows since mid-October, signaling strong underlying buying interest. We can clearly see a strong impulse leg, followed by a correction, and then another impulse leg higher. Key Support Levels: Dynamic Trendline Support: The green ascending channel acts as dynamic support, guiding the price upwards. The current pullback is finding confluence with this trendline. 4300 Current Support (Green Zone): This is a critical horizontal support zone. It represents a previous resistance level that has likely flipped to support, aligning perfectly with the lower boundary of our ascending channel. This area is where we expect buyers to step in. 4200 Deeper Support (Green Zone): Should the 4300 level fail, the 4200 zone stands as a robust deeper support, acting as a strong psychological and technical floor. Immediate Resistance at 4400 (Red Zone) : The price recently encountered resistance around the 4400 level (highlighted by the red circles), leading to a pullback. This level represents the immediate hurdle that bulls need to overcome for further upside. The Path Forward – Target 4500 : As per our projection (white dotted line), we anticipate Gold to find strong support at or around the 4300 level and the lower trendline of the channel. From there, we expect a bounce that will push the price to retest and ultimately break above the 4400 immediate resistance. Once 4400 is cleared, the path opens up for a significant move towards our 4500 Target within the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Trading Outlook: Bullish Bias: Our outlook remains firmly bullish as long as Gold respects the ascending channel and key support levels. Entry Strategy: Look for confirmed bullish price action (e.g., strong bullish candlesticks) at the 4300 current support level, especially if it coincides with a touch of the lower channel trendline. Initial Target: 4400 resistance. A break above this level would be a strong bullish signal. Main Target: 4500, aligning with the top of our ascending channel and potential price extension. Risk Management: A stop-loss order placed just below the 4300 support zone or ideally below the 4200 deeper support would be prudent to manage downside risk if the bullish structure fails. Conclusion: With strong fundamental drivers and a clear bullish technical setup on the 4H timeframe, Gold (XAUUSD) presents an attractive long opportunity. Keep a close eye on the 4300 support level for potential entry signals. Should buyers step in as anticipated, a run towards the 4500 target looks increasingly probable. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.