02.09.2025 tarihinde sembol PAXG hakkında Teknik Swissquote analizi

The evolution of gold prices by the end of 2025 will largely depend on the monetary policy decisions taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). After a year marked by a weaker dollar and falling rates that supported the precious metal, market attention is now focused on the next three key Fed meetings: September 17, October 29, and December 10. Five main scenarios can be considered, each with distinct implications for the trend of gold. 1.No Pivot: Bearish Scenario for Gold In this first case, the Fed keeps its policy rates unchanged throughout 2025. This choice would stem from inflation returning toward 3%, prompting Powell and the FOMC members to remain restrictive. The absence of a pivot would support bond yields and the US dollar on the FX market. Historically, both factors exert downward pressure on gold. Thus, this scenario would imply a bearish trend for the metal, with most of this year’s gains having been fueled by the dollar’s decline. 2.Technical Pivot Linked to the Labor Market: Moderate Support The second case corresponds to a single rate cut in September or October, driven by labor market weakness. This would not constitute a true easing cycle, since inflation would remain too high to justify a series of cuts. The impact on gold would be relatively neutral to slightly bullish. On one hand, a stable dollar would limit gold’s upside. On the other, persistent concerns about growth and employment would provide some support. This scenario would result in a trendless evolution with phases of volatility. 3.Real and Healthy Pivot: Measured Increase A third scenario assumes the Fed engages in a true pivot from September or October, initiating a series of rate cuts. This decision would be enabled by confirmed disinflation around 2%, combined with a controlled labor market. In this context, the impact would be bullish but measured. Falling rates and a weaker dollar would support gold, but a stable labor market would push flows toward risk assets such as equities, limiting the extent of gold’s rally. 4.Unhealthy Pivot: Strong Rise in Gold A more critical scenario would see the Fed forced into a pivot by labor market deterioration, despite inflation persisting around 3%. Such cuts would be perceived as defensive, increasing risk aversion. In this environment, gold would benefit massively: weaker dollar, lower yields, and, above all, safe-haven demand amid rising unemployment. The impact on gold would be strongly bullish. 5.The “Fed Put”: Explosive Scenario for Gold Finally, the extreme case corresponds to an emergency Fed intervention. Faced with soaring unemployment and a confirmed recession in the US, the central bank would launch massive easing, combining rapid and steep rate cuts. This situation would trigger a sharp fall in the dollar and bond yields. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, would then experience a spectacular surge to new all-time highs. The scale of the move would be amplified by the recessionary backdrop, pushing investors away from risk assets. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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