12.08.2025 tarihinde sembol BTC hakkında Teknik Ox_kali analizi

__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling just below a major pivot (119.8k) while buyers defend 118k, with CPI likely to act as the catalyst. Higher time frames stay constructive, but the HTF supply cap is compressing momentum. Momentum: Sideways with a slight bearish tilt until 119.8k is reclaimed on closes. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 119,800 (multi‑TF pivot), 122,300–123,300 (D/240 cluster). - Supports (HTF): 118,000 (active 1H–12H demand), 115,800–116,000 (240 pivot low), 111,980 (W Pivot High). Volumes: Normal on HTF; moderately elevated on 2H in recent sessions. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H up but capped under 119.8k; 4H/2H neutral‑bearish; 1H/30m/15m bearish with pressure testing 118k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE → a cautious “risk-on” backdrop, aligning with the difficulty to push through resistance without a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: HTF trend still constructive but capped; trade conditionally around 119.8k/118k. Global bias: Neutral to slight short bias below 119.8k; bullish above 120k. Key invalidation: 4H/D close above 120k. Opportunities: - Breakout buy: Long on close/retest hold >119.8k/120k → target 122.3k then 123.3k. - Defensive buy: Long on clean reaction at 118.0k (wick + confirmation) → 119.8k. - Tactical sell: Short on clean rejection at 119.0k–119.8k or 118.0k breakdown → 116.0k. Risk zones / invalidations: - 2H/4H break below 118.0k opens 116.0k; below 116.0k, extension risk toward 111,980. - Strong reclaim >120k invalidates range shorts and favors 122.3k–123.3k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - US CPI today; USD firm into the release → expect volatility and directionality for BTC. - RBA signals “likely” cuts but meeting‑by‑meeting → feeds a global easing narrative if CPI cooperates. - US–China 90‑day tariff truce → tailwind for risk, though tech decoupling risks persist. Action plan: - Breakout long: Entry 120.0k–120.3k / Stop <119.4k / TP1 122.3k, TP2 123.3k, TP3 trail → R/R ~2.5–3.5. - Range long: Entry 118.0k (1H–2H confirmation) / Stop <117.6k / TP1 119.3k, TP2 119.8k → R/R ~2–3. - Breakdown short: Entry on 2H close <118.0k (retest) / Stop >118.6k / TP1 116.0k, TP2 112.0k (111,980) → R/R ~2–5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher time frames are constructive yet capped, while lower time frames lean defensive into 118k. 1D/12H/6H: Uptrend intact, firm cap at 119,800; above it, 122.3k–123.3k opens if volume confirms. 4H/2H: Neutral‑bearish; 118k–119.8k range compression; a 118k break exposes 116k. 1H/30m/15m: Micro downtrend (LH/LL), intraday selling pressure; watch for defended reactions at 118k. Confluences/divergences: 119,800 is the key multi‑TF pivot; ISPD neutral → wait for close/volume confirmations. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro flow (CPI) dominates near term, with a background of gradual easing and growing institutional BTC exposure. Macro events: - US CPI due today, USD firm; hotter print likely weighs on risk, softer print favors an upside break. - RBA: “likely” cuts with a meeting‑by‑meeting stance → supports global easing narrative. - US–China tariff truce (90 days) → risk tailwind despite tech decoupling risks (Nvidia H20 in China). Bitcoin analysis: - BTC near 119k; 122k–123k resistance; failure above 122k risks a double‑top akin to mid‑July. - Institutional flows: Metaplanet +518 BTC (total ~18,113 BTC); ETFs + treasuries ~2.4M BTC (~12% supply). On-chain data: - Short‑term holders +~220k BTC since Jun 21; Realized P&L near average → rotation without extreme overheating. - ~$135M short liquidations and ~2,655 BTC moved off Binance → ongoing repositioning. Expected impact: - Soft CPI = validates break >119.8k/120k toward 122.3k–123.3k; hot CPI = risk of 118k flush to 116k/112k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Market is balanced under 119.8k with 118k as the immediate line in the sand into CPI. - Overall trend: Neutral with a slight bearish tilt below 119.8k; turn bullish above 120k. - Most relevant setup: Confirmed breakout >119.8k/120k toward 122.3k–123.3k; alternatively, tactical short on 119.0k–119.8k rejection or 118k break. - One key macro factor: US CPI today; likely the catalyst for the range break. Stay patient, trade confirmations, and manage risk tightly around the print. ⚠️ __________________________________________________________________________________