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رالی USD بالا نیست - 103.5 ورودی هفته گذشته شاهد تثبیت بین 102-102.80 بودیم هفته را با شکستن مقاومت بالای 102.8 آغاز می کنیم. ما انتظار داریم که DXY به سمت 103.5 حرکت کند که فضا را برای افزایش بیشتر دلار در این هفته فراهم می کند.

EURCAD حداقل در این هفته به 1.49 رسید انتظار افزایش بیشتر در این هفته در EURCAD وجود دارد هفته گذشته راه اندازی strong صعودی بسته شد تنظیم شکست و تست مجدد کلاسیک در سطح 1.46 کلید و 1.45 منطقه محوری روزانه (79% اصلاح) به دنبال ورود مجدد در شروع هفته با توقف های زیر ناحیه ابطال 1.45 اهداف 1.49-1.50 برای ادامه مطلب فالو کنید

USDJPY bullish week = more upside Day 47/100 Contrary to popular forecasts, my current USDJPY outlook is leaning to the upside Fundamental Catalysts: - Fed rate hikes - BoJ policy updates Bullish base-case: - Fed remains hawkish using tight jobs markets as reason to continue on "hawkish" path - BoJ will remain dovish // not as hawkish as expected If base-case is wrong, only then I'll be considering further downside Technicals - This week rejecting 138 key pivot area - If it closes bullish this week, more upside is to come; a push back into 145 🥂

Brent to 83 this week Day 46/100 - Clear break of 78-72 range - Retested 78 as support - Expecting more upside into 83 at least by this week Implications on FX - While CAD may be dragged down by USD underperformance, OIL may give it some boost as we expect upside momentum to resume briefly

XAUUSD End of July Outlook Day 45/100 - Facing resistance at 1980 - Expecting rejection and retracement towards 1940 before further upside - If 1980 breaks, will look to enter to target 2040

99 Next for DXY Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 44/100 of our challenge, we will look at where the bearish Dollar will go to next Technicals: - 190-day range broken to the downside - Closure below support - Next key level is 99 - Expecting 99 this coming week but can potentially struggle to close below it Fundamentals: - With a soft inflation print last week and also highlighting decline in inflation across the board, it gives the Fed less reason to follow through on their "two more rate hikes" plan. This will cause the market to reprice "some" of the hope built up on this statement by the Fed and may even continue to reprice the rate cut bets this year. We're bearish on the dollar for the week ahead. Have a nice Sunday ☀️

GBP/CAD to 1.73 today - trend trade Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 43/100 of our challenge, we will look at an update on our previous GBPCAD long idea (based on off-chart data) Technicals: - Break above 1.715 resistance - Created new high at 1.722 - Expecting 1.73 today - Retracement to 1.715 may take place before further upside - Idea invalid on break of 1.705 downside

GBPCAD to 1.73 this week Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 42/100 of our challenge, we will look at GBPCAD long idea (based on off-chart data) Technicals: - Bullish structure with HH-HL forming - Expecting this structure to continue - Looking to go long on 1.715 break and retest - Weekly target at 1.73 - Invalid idea when 1.695 downside is breached PMT: - Seasonality: Bullish - Pattern predic.: Neutral - Trend: Bullish - Retail pos.: Bullish - COT: Bullish That's all for today. Been busy during the week. Will start posting daily again. Have a great mid-week 🥂

USDJPY to 146... But intervention risks? 🤔 Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 40/100 of our challenge, we will look at USDJPY long idea and how we can trade it despite being "overextended" Technicals: - Still in an uptrend - 145 resistance formed - 144.2 support is being tested and holding well - Expecting 144.2 to hold as support - Break and retest above 145 offers more upside into 146 Fundamentals: - Fed has been doing a good job in its hawkish narrative despite many factors going against. Keep in mind that the Fed always did what they said they will. And they're saying 2 more rate hikes left this year. The market has not yet priced this in and is still skeptical about it. Which offers more un-priced opportunities of upside potential. - BoJ has been whispering about FX intervention with JPY's fast-paced depreciation recently. However, reaction on 145 hasn't been as violent. This prompts an idea that the BoJ is willing to give some more downside room before officially acting on the intervention. Additionally, the Fed remains hawkish and inflation relatively sticky - not the most effective time for BoJ to intervene. Anyways, that's quite loaded. Tell me what you think of USDJPY on your end. Wishing you a profitable week as always 🥂

EURGBP Trading the Range - 0.852 conviction Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 39/100 of our challenge, we will look at EURGBP short idea and how we can trade the range Technicals: - Prior to range, structure was bearish - Strongly rejected 0.863 key level - Now retesting middle limit pivot area - 79% retracement rejected as well - Expecting the fill of range bottom at 0.852 Fundamentals: 🇪🇺 Despite ECB remaining hawkish, recent data have been negative in both inflation and labor. This gives ECB less room to be hawkish/raise rates further compared to BoE 🇬🇧 The main downside risk for BoE now is the aggressive pricing in of peak rates by the rate markets. However, BoE has done a great job in meeting expectations lately: surprise hike of 50bp and the lack of push back on aggressive rate markets. The UK has also been seeing positive data recently which gives them more room to raise rates to battle inflation. Now, a hard landing due to aggressive rate hikes is also another risk. But it seems that the market isn't paying much attention to that as much as inflation currently. So that leaves us with the EURGBP short expectations this week. Any changes in catalysts is possible with inflation data from around the world is released. So stay safe, and see you tomorrow 👍