ap769

1. Macro Due to the government shutdown inflation-indexed bond data is delayed, however what we are seeing based on data from Thursday (as shown on the white vertical line) suggests that forward inflation expectations $(US10Y+US03MY)/2-DFII10 may be reverting back to the mean, which is supported by US10Y rising slightly. The long term vs short term yield spread US10Y -US03MY has tightened and is very close to inverting, which was driven by long term yields plunging last week - a rush to safety. Another long-term bond rally could invert the yield curve, often a risk-off signal if it remains inverted and widens. The dollar is finding support near its average and gold is sitting at all time highs (more on gold later). On the commodity side, Oil CL1! continues to slide, aided by fragile stability in the middle east. My ag/industrial gauge $(COPPER1!+ZC1!)/2/DXY is still elevated but lacks momentum. Nothing interesting to glean here other than the fact that higher commodity prices are not significantly affecting forward inflation expectations (for now). Oil’s continued downtrend is certainly playing a factor, however the pause in Fed data could also make any potential inflationary impact more delayed than usual. When it comes to bonds, watch closely and proceed with caution. 2. FX The dollar index is still well below other currency indices for the year but I have all of the charts on this layout indexed to 100 to show recent relative activity. The dollar DXY has recently seen stronger performance compared to other currencies, though the others have been on the uptick in recent days . The important takeaway here can be seen on the 10Y yield comparison chart. Since the beginning of October, aside from Japan, buyers have pushed 10Y yields in the US, Eurozone and Britain down. This may suggest a rush to safety due to economic fears beyond just the US. 3. Risk On the top left chart, you can see that the corporate bond option-adjusted spread average (high-yield & investment-grade) could have either peaked or is on the uptick. Since this data is only available at the end of the day, it’s best to proceed with caution. Next, I want to highlight something I recently noticed when comparing the GOLD chart to its volatility index GVZ . Last week while Gold was reaching all time highs, there was heavy buying of GLD puts (GVZ was up over +20% on Thursday), which has pushed Gold down on the G GOLD/GVZ spread recently. I have included Gold on the bottom chart and marked the points where the ratio fell far below the standard deviation of (1) as shown via the Keltner Channel indicator on all of the charts. Looking at the previous three points where this extremity occurred, there seems to be some alignment with severe underperformance of S&P 500 Futures vs gold and stock market bottoms. Since asset prices are currently seen as elevated and Gold is close to crossing above the ES1! return since January 2020, the message this sends to me is that the gold rally is fear-driven rather than fundamentally-driven. Investors are aware that gold may be overstretched and are buying insurance. Fear without fundamentals can quickly become a buying opportunity for equities, especially when continued rate cuts (which in theory should help both Gold and Equities) are taken into consideration. If nothing fundamentally changes, and investors decide to start dumping gold, it would be expected to see equities catch a bid. I’m also continuing to watch S SPY/RSP (SPY vs equal-weight ETF) and N NQ1!/YM1! to assess risk-on vs defensive bias. Right now the momentum towards risk is flat but the Russell RUT has slid more compared to the other indices recently, suggesting a rotation out of small caps, which supports the bias that both spreads could continue higher in favor of Risk, however that is just an assumption. When looking at specific sectors, despite Consumer Staples ( XLP ) finding support, I’m not yet seeing signs that the market is abandoning tech. All of this shows that recent volatility has not changed the market’s sector positioning in a significant way, however keeping an eye on XLP for now will be very important, as it could signal a risk-off day if X XLP/XLK rises strongly. 4. Bias ( NQ1! ) I have changed my approach to trading to be more short-term, so I will not try to draw any weekly conclusions via this chart, however from Friday’s volatility action (lefthand side), it appears we may have seen a peak in near-term volatility last week. I would expect to se some volatility mean reversion on Monday ( VIX and VVIX -VIX may open higher). If the volatility is absorbed by buyers (price is relatively flat or volatility is quickly absorbed by buyers), I think dealers will sell volatility (puts) and buy futures to raise the price of SPY . On the other hand, when more bearish factors (as described above) are considered, I can’t help but wonder when looking at the ES1! chart if futures are forming a top. I would not have a problem playing the bull side if volatility activity suggests dealers are short puts, however if it shows indecision or short call positioning it may be best to sit out or wait for confirmation. -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- Conclusion: Put simply - I am cautiously bullish on stocks. I think the gold volatility is still mostly implied, so it will take a few more sessions before we find out if it will be realized or provide liquidity for more Gold buying. The extreme put buying has me fairly confident that the gold rally will stall out or pull back from around the 4,200 level. Aside from news-related volatility, the only major threat I’m seeing to stocks is that institutions may start to rotate out of tech mega caps XLK , communications XLC , and consumer discretionary XLY into safer sectors like consumer staples XLP and healthcare XLV . This can be tracked intraday so I will be watching it this week for early clues. X XLK/XLP will be an important gauge to watch, as well as N NQ1!/YM1! and S SPY/RSP for confirmation. I’m not too worried about treasuries either. The lack of data will likely keep yields close to the average, and as I’ve said before, if the US10Y -US03MY curve inverts because 10Y declines while 3M is flat, it’s the less concerning way it could occur. Corporate bond spreads will be important to watch for a potential risk-off continuation, however that data will only be available once per day. Most importantly, if volatility seems to have peaked (at least in the short term) it will solidify the bullish case. As I hope I’ve explained, I think the market is in a confused and defensive state, even if the situation doesn’t necessarily call for it. US economic data is still on hold so dealers are firmly in control of the narrative. Since dealers prefer to be short gamma on puts, that is the only reason why my bias is slightly bullish. On the contrary, if there is a sudden rush into puts that creates a significant Implied/Historical volatility imbalance, I will not hesitate to take the short side.

I decided to go through and consolidate my charts this week to make for easier decision making. Friday’s sell off was a sign of weakness in a market that was already showing strain. While the drop on resumed trade war threats was swift, the rest of the market had a muted response. Heading into this week, we should see another big move and I will try to be open to trading either side depending on how this develops. 1. Macro Gold is still in its uptrend and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. I don’t have it charted here, but Gold’s volatility index GVZ spiked during Friday’s session, however buyers seemed to be absorbing the volatility since it still closed up over 1%. Gold has already made a new ATH today and I do not expect to see the trend change this week. The dollar DXY seems to be near the top of its deviation from the flat EMA. I think we will see the dollar move lower which could boost Gold, Stocks, or both. Next, we saw US03MY remain relatively flat during Friday’s sell off while US10Y moved sharply lower during the session, making the US10Y -US03MY spread very tight once again. Since real yields are still edging up and the 3M bond stayed flat during the panic, that leads me to believe the bond market volatility was contained and may not be indicative of a true risk-off reaction. One reason why US Treasuries will continue to catch a bid is that as forward inflation expectations continue to slide (bottom left chart), the real return is still attractive compared to bonds from other major countries. We’ll see if the renewed trade sparring will change the forward inflation exceptions trend since the data from TIPS is delayed, however for now I’ll continue to base my perception on what I’m currently seeing on the chart. Lastly, Oil is continuing to see an average decline. Hopefully middle eastern peace efforts are successful, which could keep the price subdued. On the bottom chart I have combined the average of COPPER1! and Corn ZC1! into a single line compared to DXY , which aims to show real demand (and/or inflation) pressure against the Dollar’s relative strength. Here we can see commodities took a hit on Friday but the trend is still very strong to the upside. Since forward inflation expectations are down and the dollar is flat, this may be pointing to the presence of real demand, which should be bullish for equities. 2. Risk Even when looking at the past six months on a line chart, the pullback, Friday’s drop was significant. As I mentioned last week, there are important risk-health items to watch for here. I’m now just charting the High Yield OAS - Investment Grade OAS spread, which was already starting to move up before Friday’s sell off. This data is only reported once per day for the previous session, so the impact on corporate bond yields is not yet known. This will be very important to pay attention to, as it could signal true aversion to risk. Next, the E ES1!/GOLD spread is declining and should continue until Gold enters a re-accumulation phase. Anyone’s guess when that will be so for now I think it’s safe to assume that Stocks will continue to underperform Gold, and if Friday’s drop was any indication of which side is in control, it serves as confirmation that stocks are sensitive to bad news. Buyers seem to be the ones getting absorbed. The third chart on the top shows that although NQ1! has been outperforming YM1! since the market bottomed, the momentum seems to be stalling out. I’ll be looking at the sectors to find any further signs of sustained rotation. 3. Sector Analysis My notes are best explained in the screenshot but my comment is that most of the decline on Friday came from XLK (Tech sector) selling off. Other sectors performed better against SPX, with XLP (Consumer Staples) seemingly breaking out of a decline, however as you can see from the chart on the right, it has still been the worst performer against the other indices over the past three months. One session is not enough to change the trend, however it will be important to watch for continued rotation out of tech and into other sectors. This could cause NQ1! to decline against YM1! as I suggested earlier, and would signal the market is positioning for a more sustained downturn - likely caused by disappointing growth. 4. Bias This is the chart I have tried to condense the most. I have switched to just using Line Break as my main chart for ES, which I found performed better than Renko when combined with my other indicators. On the lefthand side, I am using Session CVD but got rid of my other indicators and made a CVD Momentum indicator, which tracks the momentum of CVD rising or falling over an anchor period (1 week). I’m still using a range chart calculation for this chart, currently set to 20R. On the right, I am using what I’ll call my Volatility Dashboard, however it does not start producing a useful signal until premarket. Based on Volatility, it can be said with certainty that dealers went long on puts right before the sell-off began. From a technical standpoint, the price was in a rising wedge and dumped after it made a higher high that did not reach the upper trend line. Rising channels are generally bullish, however the extent of Friday’s free fall could mean that even if the price quickly recovers, it may be forming a top similar to what we saw last December. This is why risk indicators like corporate bond spreads, sector performance, and changes to the macro structure will be important to monitor over the coming days. — Conclusion For this week, all I can say with certainty is that I think there will be some good opportunities. Here is what I believe can be safely assessed from this analysis: 1. Stocks remain under pressure, however “smart money” will require more time to rotate out of tech, leading to repeated retests of the top of the range. 2. Tailwinds for stocks are potential real demand in agriculture and industrial material that is not impacting the market’s forward inflation expectation. 3. “Smart Money” will sell volatility (puts) into pullbacks if the price is set to be driven higher, or will do the opposite, buying volatility (puts) and selling calls on low volume rips This is why I will be looking for more confirmation before taking a side, as the market’s goal now is to clear out liquidity. When it comes to the larger trend, I tend to think that stocks do not seem to be showing strength over the larger macro structure, however that does not necessarily dictate that the index will come down another 8%. Instead, I think at the very least we will stay in a flat range for the time being. I do not think the market is ready to go on a bull run, nor do I think the environment is showing a risk-off bias that is strong enough to warrant stocks going straight down. If we meet resistance near the top of the range, I’ll look at volatility positioning and CVD for the signal to go short. Conversely, if we make a higher low I will go long on calls to the top of the range. Good luck to all and thanks for reading!

Hello everyone - it has been a while since I have posted an Idea. I tried to come up with a template for recurring posts earlier in the year that just became too time-consuming so I decided to wait until I worked out something different. Lately, I have been moving away from purely focusing on technical analysis and more towards building a framework that helps me assess the overall market structure to set my bias before then looking to technicals and other indicators to find trade entries. My current approach utilizes three dashboards for market structure, which I call Macro, FX, & Risk. From there, I have a specific layout on Futures that helps me track order flow and momentum. When I feel like I have a good read on the market and am ready to make a trade, I then look at the 0DTE options chain and SPY intraday chart to determine support/resistance and good entry points. I’m still working on improving using this style of trading, but will try to journal my bias on a weekly basis from here forward if possible, which can help me determine areas where I am succeeding and others that could use improvement. For today, I will try to briefly run through each of my layouts with brief notes about how I am perceiving the market’s activity in context. I’ll look at this on a shorter scale in the future, but for now I am going to look at roughly the last 12 months, going back to October 2024. Layout 1: Macro On this layout, the goal is to gauge the overall market backdrop. Here, we can see that DXY declined until July where it began to flatten. It’s still moving down slightly on average but the slope is not as steep, however I would not yet call this a bottom as the current candlestick setup makes me think more downside is still a possibility. The next two panes show a comparison of • US03MY (risk-free short term yield); black • US10Y (risk-free short term yield); white • DFII10 (10Y real yield: US10Y minus inflation expectations from TIPS); blue indexed to 100 and the “Inflation Gauge” which is the difference between the average nominal US bond yield ((US10Y+US03MY)/2) minus the 10Y Real Yield, which provides a rough estimate of inflation expectations. Here we can see that nominal and real yields have been on the decline since June. In the first part of this phase, the inflation gauge was rising, suggesting true risk-on behavior. Fed policy remained unchanged while there was a modest rise in inflation expectations, yet investors did not pile into gold, so equities were the preferred risk asset during this period, especially since the dollar remained flat as previously mentioned. On the righthand side, inflationary commodities (namely Oil CL1! and Corn ZC1! ) have mostly been suppressed during this calendar year, however Oil has remained in a flat range since June and Corn has been on the rise since the middle of August. Copper COPPER1! , which is more of a signal of industrial demand, has been on a steady rise since markets bottomed in April 2025 and may even be accelerating. Since inflation expectations have been falling, the rise in Copper and Corn may be more of a demand signal, however if something causes Oil or the other two commodities to surge too quickly, these could turn into inflation drivers. For now, the picture I’m seeing here is that the market’s risk-on appetite may be waning, in favor of safer bets like US Treasuries and Gold, even when inflation expectations are taken into account. Commodities and the Inflation Gauge will be important to keep watching, as correlation to the upside could quickly change the economic backdrop. Layout 2: FX Here, I am seeing that US nominal yields remain higher than most other major countries (Germany and Italy are both Blue to match EXY and are the solid and dotted lines, respectively) while the Dollar has seen a steep decline compared to other currency baskets over the same period. The message this sends to me is that investors are demanding a higher return on US debt while betting that monetary policy will ease, growth will slow, or both. Layout 3: Risk On this layout I am keeping track of the following Top Left: Option adjusted spread (OAS) of corporate High Yield bonds/Investment Grade bonds Top Middle: S&P 500 Futures/Gold spread Top Right: VIX and MOVE overlay Bottom: Stock index comparison (SPX, NDQ, DJI, RUT) I should have mentioned earlier that I’m trying to keep the start/end of the arrows on all of the charts aligned. The takeaway here is that the last time we saw ES1! sharply fall against GOLD , it provided an early signal for an equity sell off. The sell off Feb-April was a true risk-off event since both High Yield and Investment Grade bond yields surged and there was a simultaneous spike on VIX and MOVE. So far in September, we have seen stock volatility while bond volatility has remained flat. While VIX and MOVE were not leading indicators before, at the very least this indicates that equities are not yet ready to sell off. Still, I cannot stress the point enough that Gold is very important to watch right now, especially as it relates to stocks since it can suggest that investors view it as the better risk asset, which cold lead them to dump the other (stocks) if an event makes it seem warranted. —————————— Put simply, I think the market is saying the following: 1. More rate cuts are expected 2. Slower growth may be the bigger fear than inflation (at the moment) 3. Inflation worries are still present, yet diminished 4. Hedging with safe assets (bonds, gold) may be more attractive than stocks 5. Recent stock declines do not have risk-off confirmation Next, I will take a look at my Bias chart, which right now mostly covers September thus far. Layout 4: Bias There’s a few things going on here that not everyone may be familiar with, so I’ll break it down pane-by-pane, as I have found this layout for Futures ES1! to be very effective Top Left: 50R chart with indicators only. CVD Daily (blue), CVD Weekly (black), Fisher Transform (y-axis log scale), Anchored OBV (daily) Bottom Left: ES1! Line Break (3 lines, 1h) Center: ES1! Renko (ATR, 15m) Right: VIX (1h) I’m using a 50R chart on the top left pane to filter time-based noise and to provide more data to be calculated into each bar on the CVD indicator, which gives more conviction to each move. CVD is the most important indicator here and I have found that comparing Daily and Weekly CVD becomes more effective as the week progresses and often shows hidden order-flow divergences. Line Break creates a new line when the price closes in the same direction of the trend. Reversals only occur when the price crosses above or below three lines in the opposite direction. Successions of small boxes (like we see here) are easy to reverse than several long boxes in a row. Renko is similar to line break but it is filtered by ATR and new boxes only have to clear the filter before a reversal prints. On this layout, we can see that there was a battle last week on the order flow but buyers ended up finishing on top. Volatility was climbing for six sessions straight but ended up getting dumped on Friday (9/26). Futures are currently climbing back towards ATH on Sunday night, however the print on the Line Break chart has me cautious about if this will be quickly reversed. I’d like to see at least one long bar print heading into Monday if I’m going to go long, as Line Break must be aligned with whichever direction I trade in. —————————— Conclusion: I’m approaching this week with a good deal of caution. While I do not think that we will see a true risk-off event until the market approaches a point where policy tightening is getting priced in (i.e. Fed is too dovish and accelerates inflation, leading to a quick policy reversal). Still, the market’s defensive positioning and relative waning of interest in stocks cannot be ignored. With Q4 being traditionally strong, the market may sell into the weakness in order to reposition for a bullish end of the year, even if the broader outlook is starting to signal trouble ahead. I’m not confident about trading either side on Monday, so it could be a volatility rebalancing day. What I will watch for, however, is VIX finding support and whether or not Futures reach new ATHs before pulling back. ATH before a pullback would be the best bullish scenario, while a failure to make new highs could lead to a flat distribution or re-accumulation range. In which case, order flow and daily options positioning will be important to watch. If this becomes a weekly thing I will definitely not be explaining all of my charts and indicators each time, and will opt to keep it brief but wanted to at least explain it all once in case anyone ends up following along. Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions on how I can sharpen my analysis. Thank you for reading - AP.

متاسفم که نتوانستم دفترچه معاملاتم را در پایان هفته گذشته به‌روزرسانی کنم و قصد دارم این هفته در این مورد بهتر عمل کنم. تلاش کرد این پست‌ها را مختصرتر نگه دارم تا بتوانم ثابت قدم بمانم و به هدفم که ایجاد جدول زمانی دقیق از معاملاتم است، برسم. برای این هفته، با تمایل صعودی کمتر از a وارد بازار می‌شوم که در نمودار قیمت (Price Action) برای QQQ بهتر از SPY پشتیبانی می‌شود، بنابراین به جای SPY، آن را معامله کرد. قیمت در حال حاضر در معاملات شبانه 0.60% کاهش یافته است که قیمت را به نزدیکی کف محدوده (550 دلار) می‌رساند که خارج از کانال است. در این ساختار ثابت، یا شاهد شکست قیمت به سمت بالا پس از a آزمایش نقدینگی (فنری) بود یا شاهد شکست به سمت پایین در a برگشت واقعی نزولی. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ تحلیل بی‌طرفانه رنکو (Renko): رنکو به عنوان نمودار اصلی من، به وضوح هر دو سناریو را نشان می‌دهد که با خط white (صعودی) توپر و خط نقطه‌چین (نزولی) نشان داده شده است. برای ایده صعودی، قیمت پس از a شکست کاذب به سمت پایین، تعداد a قابل توجهی خریدار پیدا کرد. من از اندازه‌های جعبه سنتی به ATR (14) فیلتر شده تغییر کردم و همانطور که می‌بینید، رالی خودکار (AR) پس از اوج، اصلاح a قابل توجهی نداشت. ما شاهد a آزمایش مجدد بخش بالایی محدوده که بتوان آن را a آزمایش ثانویه (ST) در نظر گرفت تا مدتی بعد نبودیم و زمانی که این اتفاق افتاد، قیمت به اوج خود بازگشت که نشان می‌دهد خریداران هنوز قدرت دارند. از آنجا، قیمت در فاز B در حال نوسان بوده است و پیشرفت چندانی به سمت پایین نداشته است که احتمالاً در روز دوشنبه در اثر form شکاف a رو به پایین به آن رسید. علاوه بر این، کانال صعودی که منجر به این عقب‌نشینی شد نیز الگوی a قوی است، بنابراین این عقب‌نشینی باید به عنوان تجمیع مجدد احتمالی تلقی شود. اگر قیمت نتواند دوباره وارد کانال شود یا پس از a شکست به زیر محدوده به اوج برسد، احتمالاً از آنجا سقوط کرد. نمودار 200R: نمودار بازه (Range) نیز از این ایده پشتیبانی می‌کند که آزمایش ثانویه، آزمایش مجدد بالای کانال بود، a نشانه احتمالی قدرت. قیمت هنوز بسیار بالاتر از میانگین متحرک 200 (200MA) است، بنابراین به نظر می‌رسد روند صعودی قوی است. یک منطقه مهم که باید به آن توجه کرد، شکاف حجم از 548 تا 549 دلار در پروفایل حجم است. اگر گاوها نتوانند از این شکاف دفاع کنند، این می‌تواند a نشانه احتمالی ضعف باشد. نمودار 500R: من این نمودار را اضافه می‌کنم زیرا دلیلی a برای احتیاط در مورد عقب‌نشینی a یا حتی معکوس شدن a ارائه می‌دهد. قیمت در بالای کانالی قرار دارد که در 9 آوریل آغاز شده است. آخرین باری که قیمت مرز بالایی را آزمایش کرد، یک سقف a موقت تشکیل داد و عقب‌نشینی کرد که می‌توانیم دوباره شاهد وقوع آن در اینجا باشیم. کندل‌های حجم نیز از 13 می علاقه بسیار بیشتری را نشان می‌دهند. این می‌تواند به دلیل افزایش علاقه از سوی خریداران یا توزیع سهام باشد که برای افزایش move قیمت به تلاش بیشتری نیاز دارد. نمودار روزانه: در اینجا نمودار دیگری وجود دارد که نشان می‌دهد اولین movement آزمایشی که می‌توان آن را a آزمایش ثانویه در نظر گرفت، آزمایش مجدد بالای محدوده بود. قیمت از VWAP ماهانه (Monthly Volume Weighted Average Price) در حال جهش است و Fisher Transform در منطقه بالایی ثابت باقی مانده است. ما در نمودار روزانه کندل a نزولی با قصد ندیده‌ایم. اینها همگی کندل‌های دوجی (Doji) ثابت بوده‌اند. اختیار معامله (Options): برای این بخش، نمی‌توانم تحلیل a خوبی از اختیار معامله‌های سر به سر (On-the-money options) ارائه دهم زیرا احتمالاً قیمت با شکاف (Gap) رو به پایین باز می‌شود. من 7/15 اختیار فروش (Put) با قیمت اعمال 550 دلار را اضافه می‌کنم زیرا احتمالاً قیمت در حدود آن سطح باز می‌شود و برای افزایش move قابل توجه حق بیمه (Premium) باید به زیر قیمت اعمال (Strike Price) برسد. قیمت این قرارداد در یک کانال نزولی a بزرگتر قرار داشت و برای نشان دادن نزول بیشتر برای QQQ، به یک شکست a قوی بالای بالای کانال (2.15 دلار) نیاز دارد. بر اساس محاسبه‌گر اختیار معامله من، این امر مستلزم کاهش قیمت دارایی پایه (Underlying Price) به زیر 551 دلار برای یک دوره طولانی است. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ اهداف اختیار خرید (Call): باز کردن در 549 دلار؛ بستن در 557 دلار؛ توقف ضرر (Stop Loss) زیر 548 دلار اختیار فروش: باز کردن در 550 تا 552 دلار؛ بستن در 544.50 دلار؛ توقف ضرر بالای 555 دلار من بزرگترین حرکت move روز را به این دلیل از دست دادم که منتظر بودم قیمت دارایی پایه در QQQ قبل از انجام معامله a از محدوده خارج شود. متوجه شدم که نمودار اختیار خرید ITM (In-the-money calls) در آستانه verge خروج a از بالای کانال نزولی قرار داشت. تصور می‌کردم که حرکت صعودی در QQQ به حدی قوی شد که قیمت را به بالای محدوده (بیش از 557.25 دلار) برساند، اما در عوض حرکت خود را از دست داد و پتانسیل صعودی اختیار خریدها را محدود کرد. تنها نکته مثبتی که امروز به دست آمد این بود که در اولین فرصتی که معامله شروع به حرکت بر خلاف من کرد، از آن خارج شدم که منجر به سود a کم به جای a سر به سر یا ضرر شد. من نمودار اختیار خرید را در زمان واقعی در زنگ آغاز (Opening Bell) تماشا نمی‌کردم، اما اگر مرزهای کانال رو به پایین را تماشا می‌کردم، می‌توانستم پس از جهش از حمایت (حدود 1.10 دلار) وارد معامله شوم که به من حداکثر a فرصت سود تا 200 درصد را می‌داد. دوست دارم فردا شاهد ادامه a صعودی باشم که بر اساس این خروج (Breakout) اختیار خرید ساخته شود. اگر بازار بالاتر باز شود، ممکن است مایل به ورود به اختیار خریدها در زنگ آغاز باشم. به امید روز بعد.

سلام به همه. من قصد دارم تفسیرهای معاملاتی خودم را به جای Minds به قسمت Ideas منتقل کنم تا بتوانم در طول روز متمرکز بمانم و همچنین از مزیت تحلیل گذشته‌نگر نیز بهره‌مند شوم. من BTC معامله نمی‌کنم، اما اخیراً قیمت آن را دنبال کرده‌ام و معتقدم که در حال آماده شدن برای یک حرکت بزرگ است. ساختار فعلی بر اساس الگوی توزیع وایکوف، که قیمت به طور دقیق از آن پیروی کرده است، از یک دیدگاه نزولی حمایت می‌کند. اگر این الگو ادامه یابد، من معتقدم که Bitcoin وارد یک روند نزولی شد. برای شاخص‌ها سعی می‌کنم ایده‌هایی را برای دیدگاه‌های صعودی و نزولی ارسال کنم، اما برای این پست سریع در مورد بیت‌کوین، می‌خواهم به سمت نزولی پایبند باشم. با استفاده از نمودار رنکو (سنتی، اندازه پنجره 500 دلاری) به عنوان نمودار اصلی خود، می‌توانید ببینید که قیمت پس از اوج در 22 می (اوج خرید) از یک روند صعودی قوی خارج شده و وارد یک الگوی توزیع بالقوه شده است. تست ثانویه (ST) band پایین‌تری از منطقه مقاومت را تعیین کرد، که قیمت تا به امروز آن را آزمایش و رد کرده است. برچسب‌ها ذهنی هستند، اما آنچه می‌توانیم تأیید کنیم این است که قیمت از محدوده پایین‌تر (نشانه ضعف یا فنر) عبور کرده است، اما نتوانسته است از بالای محدوده عبور کند. یک فشار رو به بالا/شکست جعلی بالاتر از بالای محدوده، یک سطح کلیدی برای ورود به موقعیت فروش بود، زیرا این امر آخرین خریداران باقی‌مانده را از بین می‌برد، با این حال ادامه یافتن قیمت در زیر مقاومت می‌تواند نشانه‌ای از ضعف مداوم باشد. رد شدن در اینجا نشان می‌دهد که ما در فاز C هستیم، جایی که شتاب در سمت فروش ایجاد می‌شود و در نهایت قیمت را از پایین محدوده عبور داده و به یک روند نزولی می‌کشاند. از آنجایی که رنکو روان‌ترین نمودار است، من همچنین از نمودارهای محدوده‌ای (کمتر روان) و نمودارهای کندل استیک استاندارد (بیشترین نویز) برای تجزیه و تحلیل تنظیمات نزدیک‌تر استفاده می‌کنم. در نمودار محدوده‌ای (20000R یا 200 دلار)، به نظر می‌رسد که قیمت در یک الگوی فنجان و دسته معکوس قرار دارد، که اگر حفظ شود از این ایده حمایت می‌کند که ما در فاز C الگوی توزیع هستیم و قیمت نمی‌تواند دوباره بالاتر از محدوده شکسته شود. حجم نشان می‌دهد که علاقه کمی در سطوح بالایی وجود دارد، که منجر به کاهش قیمت در روز جمعه شد. ممکن است پس از یک دوره دیگر کم‌توجهی در سطح بالا، شاهد فشار دیگری به سمت پایین باشیم. در نهایت، نمودار شمعی 1 ساعته نشان می‌دهد که قیمت از 25 ژوئن نسبتاً ثابت بوده و توسط یک گره حجمی بزرگ در پروفایل حجم پشتیبانی می‌شود. حجم خرید زیادی در سطح پایین‌تر وجود داشت، بنابراین اگر قیمت بتواند بالای این گره (تقریباً 106700 دلار) باقی بماند، شانس خوبی وجود دارد که به بالای محدوده رانده شود، با این حال اگر فروشندگان بتوانند آن را از این سطح حجم بالا عبور دهند، کاهش بیشتر می‌تواند به دنبال داشته باشد. به همین دلیل است که پیشنهاد می‌کنم قبل از ورود به معامله، صبر کنید تا ببینید آیا این سطح حفظ می‌شود یا خیر. یک شکست جعلی صعودی (بالای 112000 دلار) یک منطقه safe برای ورود به موقعیت فروش بود، زیرا یک تنظیم با کیفیت با ریسک/پاداش خوب بود. اگر قیمت در فاز C باشد و نتواند بالاتر از محدوده شکسته شود، یک تنظیم فروش کمتر ایده‌آل بود، زیرا بازار می‌تواند در هر زمان فشاری به بالای محدوده وارد کند تا خریداران را پاک کند. اگر این اتفاق بیفتد، ترجیح می‌دهم منتظر تأیید بیشتر بمانم. برای جمع‌بندی، ایده من در اینجا این است:فروش (خط توپر): شکست جعلی بالاتر از 112000 دلار (ترجیح داده می‌شود) یا زیر 107000 دلار (ریسک بالاتر)خرید (خطوط نقطه‌چین): شکست واقعی بالاتر از 112000 دلار (ترجیح داده می‌شود) یا برگشت 103000-98000 دلار (ریسک بالاتر)از اینکه مطالعه کردید متشکرم و نظر خود را به من بگویید. ایده‌های بیشتری در راه است.

مدتی است که ایده ای منتشر نکرده ام و برای کسانی که پست های من را دنبال می کنند، متاسفانه معاملات خود را به موقع با چرخش نزولی هماهنگ نکردم، بنابراین یک قدم به عقب برداشته ام و اکنون شاهد تحولات جالبی در بازار هستم. در حال حاضر، مختصر می گویم. می خواستم یک تحلیل سریع از طلا قبل از تصمیم گیری نرخ بهره با استفاده از عناصر روش وایکوف و امواج الیوت منتشر کنم. اگر یک ماه پیش از من می پرسیدید که فکر می کنم طلا به کجا می رود، می گفتم بالاترین سطح تاریخ - و در حالی که این هنوز هم می تواند اتفاق بیفتد، من در نمودار امروز ضعفی را می بینم که شایسته توجه است. برای شروع، موج A عقب نشینی را در یک الگوی معمولی 3 موجی ایجاد کرد که بیشتر در داخل کانال باقی ماند. شکست صعودی دو بار آزمایش شد، بنابراین من آن را صعودی تفسیر می کنم - با این حال، حرکت مسطح بعدی و رد شدن در مقاومت نشان می دهد که افزایش از 14 می ممکن است قدرت خود را از دست بدهد. قیمت فعلی (3382 دلار) در یک سطح خنثی قرار دارد. از اینجا، می توانیم چندین سناریو را مشاهده کنیم. یک شکست صعودی کاذب، یک شکست صعودی واقعی، یا یک شکست زیر کانال برای آزمایش مجدد تقاضا. خروج از کانال می تواند نشانه تغییر شخصیت (CHoCH) باشد و می تواند نشان دهد که پول هوشمند در یک الگوی مسطح توزیع می شود. اگر قیمت سطح کلیدی حمایت را بشکند، در نشانه ضعف (SOW) بود، که با خطوط امتداد یافته کانال موج A همپوشانی دارد. اگر قرار باشد طلا به بالاترین سطح تاریخی برسد، من هنوز هم فکر می کنم که ابتدا باید به عقب برگردد تا حجم خرید زیادی را در وسط کانال وایکوف (اشعه های سفید) پیدا کند. دید که امروز چه اتفاقی می افتد، اما به نظر می رسد که خرس ها در اینجا دست بالا را دارند.