MarcPMarkets

Bitcoin: 28,450 Take Profit? Bitcoin has generated a new buy signal off the double bottom and bullish pin bar reversal that confirmed between Thursday and Friday. The entry would have been 26,650. I missed this confirmation and had not shared the idea, but some students have bought into this. For a swing trade, a reasonable stop loss would be 25,450 and take profit 28,450. Buying this at current prices is NOT a good idea, because the R:R is much less attractive. Recent price action across the board has been confusing, especially if you are the logical type. There are some interesting explanations out there that have to do with bond auctions and the use of government lending facilities, etc. but after all of this fancy fundamental talk, no one can tell you how this situation will play out. My suggestion: use price structure, levels and price action to estimate probabilities of RISK. The swing trade time frame is ideal in this environment because of its short term nature. Do NOT get caught in the hype ESPECIALLY when only a handful of stocks are driving the ENTIRE market. Nasdaq moves of this nature are unsustainable. Now let's talk about Bitcoin. The 25K to 26K AREA is a major support within a broader bullish structure that has been in play since the beginning of the year. Within bullish trends, support levels are more likely to hold which means shorting into the 25K 26K areas is HIGH risk. Having this perspective will provide you with the insight you need to better select trade setups. To give you an example, my trade scanner recently generated a short notification from the 26,850 area. We know now that this trade would have not turned out well BUT if you had applied the simple perspective I mentioned earlier, you would have known that this would be a notification to IGNORE. Price locations can imply probabilities if you evaluate them in terms of price structure. These are concepts that I review regularly with students and followers. As long as 25K stays intact, it is within reason to see a test of the 30K AREA over a few weeks. If you missed the bottom of this move, do NOT chase it. Either WAIT to see if a better price comes along (like a mini higher low) OR consider working on a day trade time frame. Logic and opinions will not help you be consistent in a game that is highly random. We only assume that we know "why" price is moving after we read some news or listen to some "expert". Meanwhile, it does not matter why, what matters is what's most likely to be NEXT. This type of relevant information can only come from actual measures of sentiment or price action itself. Conventional logic will only lead you to a shrinking account. Tomorrow is a market holiday and I will not be conducting my usual analysis stream. Will continue next week. Enjoy your holiday everyone! Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin: Waiting For Signal 25K. Bitcoin is now poised to retrace into the 25K key support area. In my previous article I shared a long swing trade idea from the 27,150 level. While this idea started off in the green, it has since produced a conflicting signal and I have suggested to those who took the position to mitigate risk by breaking even or taking a small loss. I do NOT pretend to know where the market is going, I only evaluate probabilities and adjust to new information. In this article I will explain what I am anticipating for the coming week in terms of price action. As a quick note, in my previous stream I shared an ETH SHORT swing trade idea from the 1815 level. This idea came straight from my trade scanner two days after I called Bitcoin long. Together with participants in my stream we put together what the entry, stop loss and take profit should look like. Since this signal, the trade scanner has also called Bitcoin short. I will be reviewing the management of these ideas in my next stream, particularly in the area of conflicting signals. As far as this week's price action: I am anticipating follow through of the potential sell signal developing at the moment. The 25K support zone is significant and provides a potential high probability location for a swing trade long. The trade itself totally depends on the type of price action that presents itself in the specified area (see lower blue rectangle). Keep in mind that markets are MOSTLY random and this scenario is just one of an infinite number. A bullish reversal from the 25K's can see a rally attempt back into the 28K area. At this point I would NOT be much more optimistic than that. This movement from low to high can take a week or two to develop (see line illustration on chart). An important thing to keep in mind in this environment: There is a LOT OF ECONOMIC DRAMA in the news. And when there is drama, the fake gurus and "experts" capitalize on this further by offering their "valuable" opinions. All of this leads to planting seeds of bias or opinions which you MUST AVOID if you want to get through this with your money still in your account. The first thing "smart" people are likely to do is apply logic. Meanwhile markets are driven by emotions. This is why you can have a Nasdaq pushing yearly highs while the U.S. Treasury is unable to pay back its lenders. Don't attempt to make sense of it. Price behaves how ever it wants, NOT how you THINK it should behave. This is where technical analysis shines. TRUST PRICE NOT PEOPLE. Using price structure, levels and context, you can better determine how price is more LIKELY to behave over shorter time frames. And an adequate level of proficiency can be achieved while being completely IGNORANT of the news and other useless information offered everywhere for free. Most retail traders fail not because they are incapable, but because they consume and react to the same information as EVERYONE ELSE. As long as Bitcoin can stay within the 25K to 30K range, I will consider it generally bullish because that is what the structure implies. IF 25K is cleared, then that calls for an adjustment of broader expectations. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin: New Buy Setup. Bitcoin is now starting to meet the setup criteria for a new swing trade long based on my strategy. As you can see by the illustration on my chart (squiggly line) I am anticipating a test of the 30K resistance AREA over the following week or two. In this article I will explain the trade idea further. Keep in mind this "manual" swing trade strategy is NOT the same strategy that my Trade Scanner is based upon. That is why the scanner will NOT call Bitcoin long here, but I will. This has to do with short term price momentum vs. longer term structure. My Trade Scanner is programmed to identify momentum reversals on the side of the trend. If the "trend" is in question as a result of a steep retrace, the scanner will WAIT until the momentum and structure realign. That can take a few days or longer. One great advantage to using something like this is it forces you to wait for a generally more favorable environment. I am calling this as a swing trade long because of the high probability support area just above the 25K historical support (see lower blue square on chart). The fact that price is attracting buying activity in this area is in line with market intent: support areas are likely to hold, resistances likely to break. Since the 25 to 26K AREA is what I consider a "fake out" zone, there is a better chance that price retraces from here and attempts to retest the 30K area. This is a perspective that the scanner is not able to account for because of its limited scope. Along with the attractive price location, there is also an attractive reward/risk. It is within reason here to use 1500 points of risk, and a 3000 take profit expectation. The orders would look something like this: Buy Stop: 27,150 Stop Loss: 25,650 Tale Profit: 30,150. Keep in mind, only you can determine how to manage the risk associated with this. This is NOT about HOW MUCH YOU CAN MAKE. This is about minimizing your loss if the trade goes red, while aiming to maintain a high PROBABILITY of exiting for a profit. Markets are HIGHLY random, and things can change fast. If you get long, the next step is to watch for conflicting signals and adjusting orders to reduce risk further. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin: Buy What You Can't See? Bullish consolidation developing between the 28K and 30K AREA. Highly random price action, within a general resistance area. This unfolds after a week of heavy economic events. The fact that general bullish bias is still intact in terms of price structure is telling. There are a variety of ways to capitalize on this in terms of strategies. One such way is to WAIT for a high probability location and setup. Many are going to obsess over the price pattern, "wedge" or "pennant" or whatever. You can listen to Captain Obvious if that makes you happy. I prefer to WAIT for what is NOT obvious or present on the chart. I don't react to what I see, instead I anticipate a narrow range of scenarios that the market may or may not present. The particular scenario I am waiting for is this: price probing into the mid to low 27Ks, possibly lower and then presenting a clear reversal pattern. Such a scenario offers a high probability opportunity for a very attractive reward/risk ratio. Such reversals are common within consolidating markets and has to do with the orders that are caught on the wrong side of the market. Since the broader trend is BULLISH, looking for the long scenario offers a better probability than trying to short the same setup but on the bearish side. That would be the failed high in the low 30K area (upper blue square on chart). At this point I am using the upper blue square as a potential profit objective. My criteria is very strict and the market may not present me with the opportunity that I am describing. Or the market may test my prices, and break for WHATEVER reason. Markets are HIGHLY random and I trust the price because it accounts for all the known information in the world so that I don't have to. My trade scanner on the other hand has less strict criteria than me and IF a break out is developing at less than ideal prices, it is likely to generate a notification. I will be open to this since it is based on a specific type of momentum based reversal but I will have to compensate for the less than ideal prices by taking a smaller position. When it comes to day trades or swing trades, you have to be intimately familiar with the type of market behavior you are attempting to exploit. And most important of all, you have to be able to recognize everything in terms of the risks, NOT the profits. By accepting the random nature of the market, I am better prepared to capitalize on opportunities before they are obvious to the herd. I am able to plan and prepare for what I can't see and I don't need any other information than what is on my charts. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin: Watch For 30K Fakeout? Price has reversed off the high probability support zone that I wrote about on here a week earlier. The complex reversal setup that I described in that article (two days earlier) appeared and confirmed on Tuesday at 28K. I shared the specific trade orders privately Tuesday evening when Bitcoin was pushing 28,400. That swing trade idea produced a 1500 point profit if it was managed properly. If you missed that, and wondering if NOW is a good time to buy, the answer is NOT at these levels because of the sharp increase in risk. Let me explain. First, there is an important lesson to learn about the order placement that I specifically called at the 28K level. By t he time I was able to send out the entry price, stop and take profit, Bitcoin was at 28,400 which was 400 points more than the system entry. What to do in these situations? Place a market order and get in at a worse price and adjust your position size to compensate for the increase in risk? That is one possibility which I mentioned specifically but that is a decision that only you can make. The other more conservative choice was using a limit order below the market in an attempt to capitalize on price noise. While I mentioned the first choice was adequate (but up to you), I went with the second choice with a buy limit at 28K. Often this technique will result in a missed trade because if price momentum is strong, it never retraces. While many fret over missed trades, there is NOTHING wrong with them since there are always more trade opportunities. So which one of these choices was better? IF you had taken the 28,400 price with a market order, and stuck to the take profit of 29,500, this trade resulted in 1000+ point profit. IF you chose the limit order at 28K, initially it looked like you missed the move UNTIL the next day when for some random reason, Bitcoin sold off, went below 28K and then back above the 29,500 take profit level (where it is now) without stopping out. Both trades generated a decent profit, but the more conservative trade offered a greater profit for less risk. And for those most enamored with greed, if you were really on top of these orders, you actually could have taken both trades since one occurred one day before the other. The lesson here is this: when it comes to relatively smaller time horizons (like a few days), this is really a game of probabilities vs. risk. Proper order placement is key when it comes to maximizing the PROBABILITY of profit, NOT the amount of profit while at the same time optimizing risk. Most novices take order placement for granted and do not realize that you can improve your probabilities this way because it minimizes "YOU' from the equation. In my recent streams, I have been talking about using tools like the ATR to better determine stop and take profit prices to further improve this part of your process. As far as Bitcoin trades now: Price is probing the 30K RESISTANCE AREA. In terms of probabilities, it is reasonable to anticipate that selling activity is more likely here. That means LOW expectations for longs over the next week. At the same time, shorts are also considered aggressive because they are counter to the broader BULLISH trend which is still intact. The upper blue square on the chart represents a high probability AREA for a bearish reversal or failed high. The two choices I would consider now are: stay small with low expectations or stay out. Most people (particularly frauds) obsess with forecasting the future. Price will be "HERE" by some specific time. If you instead took the time to understand what efficient markets means, you will quickly realize there is NO WAY to accurately forecast the future especially for longer time horizons. LESS is more in this game. All the information you need to make reasonable judgements exist on a simple price chart. You just have to learn how to value the relevant information that is available and evaluate it from a perspective of probabilities. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin: Buy Zone But No Setup. Bitcoin has rejected the 30K resistance area, as I warned about in my previous article, even though there WAS a buy signal there. Price is now fluctuating within the first relevant support AREA which means I am looking for swing trade setups to go LONG. This location fits my criteria in terms of probability and reward/risk but with NO setups confirmed, there is NO reason to justify assuming risk at the moment. IF price is going to confirm a signal, it is likely to do so in the next couple of days BUT IF no confirmation appears AND current momentum stays intact, a test of the 25K support may result. Before I get into more explanation, just wanted to thank the Tradingview team and the community for recognizing me as a "wizard". With my newly acquired magical powers, I can now attempt to build a "magical oscillator" that can compete with all the other magical oscillators out there that no one makes any money with (except for the developers). Mine should work though because I'm a wizard! Before I became a wizard, I actually built a trade scanner (not an oscillator) that has shown some very interesting results. In fact I shared an ETH trade idea that was generated a week ago, which offered some profit potential before it got stopped out. As I have been trying to tell people, the key to using this tool is knowing how to adjust to the risk by assessing the probabilities around the locations where it generates ideas. The ETH trade idea was generated around a notable resistance area (like BTC 30K). KNOWING THIS means you adjust expectations IF you should decide to take such a higher risk idea. The system is unable to recognize context, that is the part you need to be able to judge yourself. More about this on my next stream. Using elements like price structure and levels can help you better estimate probabilities around particular price locations. These are the first two steps that I teach students and are the most important besides the confirmation step (step 6). This is how I estimated the position of the swing trade buy zone on my BTC chart (blue square) weeks BEFORE. The 27K to 28K area has recent history in the form of a consolidation (look back a few weeks on chart). The fact that price is now in the vicinity of that consolidation structure while the over all price structure is still within a broader bullish trend increases the chances that at least one more test of the recent high is likely. This all has to do with the population of traders (order flow) that are caught short versus potential for new longs to enter the market upon a retrace within a bullish trend. In theory, price should attempt to go for a new high (33K) over the next week or so. While this sounds encouraging, I have found it is BETTER to have a more conservative expectation (like retest of 30K area) because markets ARE highly RANDOM and things can change VERY QUICKLY. Especially when the bond market has not exactly been the most supportive of broad and sustainable market rallies. IF Bitcoin can produce a complex reversal structure (like a mini double bottom) within the current buy zone, it will prompt me to share a new swing trade long idea. Otherwise there is nothing for me to do except watch (and wait for the scanner to call something). Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Since the 30K break out, it would be wise to adjust relevant support levels. The 28K AREA is the new zone of support that I am watching for the possibility of a new SWING trade long (the previous level was 25K). As you can see from the forecast line that I illustrated on my chart (a week ago), Bitcoin appears to agree with the break out scenario that I outlined in my previous article. The question is: what to do from here? Here is my suggestion. As an interesting side note, my trade scanner called Bitcoin long 3 days before the 30K break out (talked about this in my recent stream). While I suggest a reward/risk of 1.5:1, this move delivered 2 or 3:1 at least if your stop was placed at a proportional level. I mention this because my system chart is potentially setting up to generate a new buy signal over the next few days. While there is no guarantee that it will, or that it will work, its track record so far has been compelling. The signals are based on trend following criteria and will not generate any counter trend signals. As illustrated on my chart, price is now hesitating around the mid point between the 28K support and 33K resistance zone. The 30K break out confirms the bullish structure and increases the probability of 33K being tested over the next two weeks. These facts suggest that shorting at current levels is NOT favored in terms of my SWING trade strategy. For the contrarians, the lower risk alternative is to work on smaller time frames and do NOT expect an outsized retrace (like 25K). A move into the mid to low 29s is somewhat reasonable. At the same time, price is still NOT at an attractive level for swing trade longs EITHER. This situation is common and same as the short side, longs should be considered on smaller time frames only, along with proportional expectations. What separates the two scenarios is: the broader structure IS bullish which means catalysts are more likely to take price to the next resistance (33K). The key to navigating this is: adequate RISK parameters. STOP obsessing over news, and other frivolous information. My trade scanner is ignorant to news, opinions, emotions, gimmicks and retail nonsense. It simply WAITS for criteria to be met. The IDEAL SWING trade scenario would be a retrace into the 28Ks (see blue square on chart) followed by a long setup with a take profit expectation in the 33Ks. IF price finds support earlier (low 29Ks or even low 30Ks), look for intraday setups with proportionally tighter stops (500 to 1K points is within reason). 33K is NOT a guarantee, it is a potential objective. The reward/risk ratio offers a more effective mechanism to determine exiting positions. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin is on the verge of a consolidation break out into the 30Ks, but what is the most effective way to manage the risk presented in this scenario? Price location plays a very important role in shaping trade expectations. Let me explain. You will notice a path that I have illustrated on the chart. Like I explained a few weeks earlier, this is NOT an absolute forecast, instead it is one possibility out of infinite possibilities. It is NOT about WHEN the market will follow this path, it is about IF it chooses to do so. We are followers in this HIGHLY RANDOM game and the only ability we have is to manage risk. Here are the factors to consider: 1. The broader price structure continues to support the bullish argument. 2. Price has been consolidating between 26,500 and 29K for weeks. 3. Bitcoin appears to be less correlated to the broader markets in recent weeks. 4. All it needs is a catalyst to set it off and shorts will be forced to cover. So the bullish break out is favored statistically, the problem is: the LOCATION is FAR from ideal and presents a much higher risk in terms of my swing trade strategy. Even my newly setup trade scanner has been calling longs in the high 27K area which offered potential profits of a couple of hundred points IF managed carefully. The key to this is using the market context to SHAPE expectations in a way that optimizes RISK. The way I go about doing this is simple: If I am seeing buy signals in a bullish context that are NOT aligned with a major support, then I have much LOWER expectations of the outcome. This translates into 1) focusing on smaller time frame strategies. 2) Looking to take profits as soon as risk is justified. 3) Time horizon expectations are limited to 1 day or less. This mind set allows me to participate in scenarios that have a lower probability of following through. So where is the ideal price for a swing trade with greater probability and reward/risk potential? 25K (see blue square on chart). Otherwise, watch for a break of the 29,500 area and momentum follow through into the low 30Ks during the week. Also be prepared for a fake out and conflicting signal. This is NOT a game of opinions, it is a game of adjusting to NEW information as the market presents it. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. Happy holidays to everyone.

28K resistance still in play in the face of a dramatic stock market rally over the previous week. This is a sign of relative weakness and speaks volumes about the balance of order flow. The 25K support AREA (see blue square) is the price location that I am WAITING for in order to put on a new SWING trade long. As a market technician focused on short term movement, I am not concerned with why a market is acting the way it is, I am only concerned with price structure, levels and confirmations. My only purpose is to manage risk and evaluate probabilities, it does NOT get any more complex than that. With that being said, what is relative strength and why is it so important to be aware of? First, it has NOTHING to do with the RSI. Relative strength is the comparison of one market against a parent market or index. In the case of stocks for example, you would compare the price behavior of your stock to the S&P or Nasdaq. If the S&P rallies, and the stock in question hardly moves, that is a sign that selling activity or at least an absence of buying. Once the S&P becomes weak, the stock in question is likely to outperform on the bear side. This means it would be a good idea to consider short possibilities and avoid any longs. Bitcoin is an index that I use in comparison to alt coins, but when it comes to comparing Bitcoin, the parent would be the S&P. The correlation fluctuates over time, BUT there has been plenty of instances where these markets generally move together over the short term (this is all relative to the Dollar). So if S&P rallies hard like we have seen over the previous week, Bitcoin should have also. Instead, Bitcoin can't get out of its own way. This implies NO ONE is buying, or if they are, they are being absorbed by greater selling activity. For this reason, I anticipate once the weakness reasserts itself in the stock market, Bitcoin will correct into the 25K support area. This can take a week or two. In my previous article I described a price scenario of retracing to 25K and the market briefly agreed before it presented another scenario. Perhaps this was the stock market effect. As you should know by now, I don't pretend to know the future, I consider potential scenarios. I adjust with the market because markets are HIGHLY random. Based on the current position of the bond market (10 Yr Note), the S&P while interesting, has still not proven any sustainability in terms of "bull market". The next retrace will be very telling. No major resistance levels have been taken out yet. This translates into: very high risk for long term stock and Bitcoin/alt positions. The game plan is still the same: wait for retrace to relevant support, measure risk and WAIT for confirmation before taking a position. This does NOT apply to smaller time frame strategies. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin is NOT in an ideal location for potential swing trade longs in terms of risk (even with the current buy signal in progress). The 28 to 30K AREA is a historical resistance that is still relevant. In this article I will explain the scenario that I am anticipating that will prompt me to share a new swing trade long idea with members. First I want to point out: after the FOMC meeting during the previous week, a bearish engulfing candle appeared off the 28K resistance. Instead of REACTING to it (like 99% of the experts on here) I shared a counter trend swing trade idea utilizing a sell stop order which has yet to be activated. This method minimizes ME from the equation and lets the MARKET determine if the trade becomes active or not. As a result, the trade is still inactive, and helped to avoid getting caught in this potential bullish break out. While the short side still has some potential, people who over react as a result of opinions or other irrational nonsense now have to worry, and watch countless Youtube videos to appease their confirmation bias. While this entry method is not perfect, it helps to reduce noise and many would be stop outs. To be clear, I still do NOT short Bitcoin but I do provide ideas for those who are willing to take that risk. The next long scenario: On my chart, I have laid out one of infinite scenarios (markets ARE mostly RANDOM). This is an illustration of what I want to see to prompt a new swing trade long. A retrace to the 25K support, followed by some form of price action confirmation. From there, targeting the 28 to 30K resistance is within reason. It is also possible that a break out toward the 33K resistance can follow. These are the reference points I will use to determine the reward/risk. I do NOT pretend to know the future (fake gurus), which is why I do NOT hold ANY opinions and maintain and open mind. The scenario on this chart is just a possibility that the market will have to confirm. As I have pointed out many times before, Bitcoin does NOT trade in isolation and we should consider the macro economic environment to help better gauge general probabilities. To consider the macro, look no further than the bond market. While there is a sharp rise in short term bond prices (banking drama), the weekly time frame still favors a bearish trend. IF the bonds cannot sustain this rally over the next few weeks, the bearish trend can reassert itself and right now bond prices are at vulnerable levels. If bonds sell off over the coming weeks, it would not be wise to expect much more bullishness from Bitcoin and the stock market. No opinions, LET the bonds provide clarity. Either way, if you are unsure about these variables, its better to trade smaller and manage expectations on smaller time frames to keep risk within reason. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.