Faux_Hubris

BTC continues to show we are in an ending diagonal BTC is clearly in a wave A leading diagonal. Price should slowly rise through the summer through a series of overlapping waves, until it reaches about 36k. I am short term long.

ADA will Lag and then catch up in a hurry Everything in crypto appears to be in a diagonal. Ada is no different. The angle of ADA's diagonal is less than BTC and most other cryptos. This means that ADA will probably not break 50cents before BTC has its first major correction of the cycle. But when BTC corrects ADA should actually fair better. After the correction ADA will have its moment.

BTC's Bull Market Best Fit Wave Count This is the only wave count that really fits the data.

S&P is in a leading diagonal. Leading diagonals are subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3. This is clearly a leading diagonal, setting up to be wave 1 of a strong impulse to the upside taking the S&P 500. I am neutral at the moment, looking to enter a long position in the leading diagonal's wave 2 correction. Always remember diagonals have an increased chance of a truncated 5th wave so wave 5 may not ever reach the top of the diagonal.

Bitcoin is about to break reisistance After a leading diagonal wave 1 and a running flat wave 2, bitcoin's wave 3 will likely hit the 1.618 fib level taking it beyond resistance and setting it up to have a massive third wave through the first half of the summer that ultimately brings Bitcoin within the range of 58-64k

Gold shows deflation is coming Technicals: Looking at this chart reminds me greatly of Bitcoin’s top in 2021. After a 5-wave move down there was an ABC to new ATHs just overshooting wave 5, before a massive C wave. I have this as a grand supercycle wave 4 correction. It is setting up to be an expanded flat correction with a deep C wave. So my target for my C-wave is the 1.618 fib level of wave A. After the 5-wave move (Primary green) down from the ATH reached in 2011 red supercycle wave A was completed. What followed was a clear 5-wave move in a leading diagonal, creating wave A of red supercycle wave B. An ABC correction followed, and then an impulsive 5-wave move to complete red supercycle wave A. Since the completion of the red supercycle wave A, there has been a wave 1 and an expanded flat correction retracing nearly 100% of wave 1. And now we are beginning the third wave of this red supercycle wave C which will be the most bearish. My Target for gold is 763.769 If price breaks above 2075.282 This wave count is invalidated. Fundamentals: According to Truflation, the real rate of inflation is now at 3%. This number is updated daily. The government number is believed to be lagging behind Truflation’s number by about 3-4 months. So if this is the case, the very crowned gold long trade will become unattractive as we reach the Fed’s target of 2%. Of course, the repercussions of their rapid rate hikes will continue to increase disinflation until it crosses the line to disinflation. My assessment is shorting gold is likely the best trade out there at the moment. There is a 6 to 1 risk reward ratio.

Bitcoin Roadmap Here are the three prevailing wave counts out there for BTC 1. The COVID-low is wave 2 and the Nov 2021 High is a B-wave for an ABC 2. The COVID-low is part of the previous impulse's correction creating a Running flat where the Nov-2021 high is wave 5 of the 2020-2021 bull market. 3. The COVID-low is wave 2 of the bull market and the Nov 2021 high is wave 5. I won't spend a lot of time talking about option 3 as it is nearly impossible when digging into the sub-wave counts. I suspect anyone arguing for this wave count hasn't gone beyond just eyeballing the chart. Option 2 has a similar issue. For the Nov 2021 high to be a wave 5, you must get 3 waves down and it just doesn't work. You get 5 down and 3 up. So in order to get a 5-wave move for the 2020-2021 bull market the COVID-low MUST be wave 1. But what if they are all wrong? As so often is the case with Elliott Wave Theory, the obvious is staring you right in the face. Without doing any analysis, just looking at the chart, the COVID-low is a textbook running flat. That means it takes the shape of a running flat. The same is true for the Nov 2021 high. It is a textbook overshooting B-wave. But everyone dismisses both of them as not being part of the bull market because that would make getting a 5 wave move impossible. But what if Elliott Wave Theory had an option where the COVID low could be part of a running flat and the Nov 2021 high could be part of an overshooting B wave? It does. Let me introduce you to ending diagonals. And ending diagonal comes in 5h waves or C waves. It can come in any lower degree 5th wave or C wave. What it is, is a series of overlapping (usually) waves most often subdivided into 3-3-3-3-3. This allows both the obvious running flat and overshooting B wave to be what they want to be. What will be challenging for a lot of people is that this diagonal will start off a lot like anyone would expect the bull market to start off. We will get 5 waves up and a deep 3 waves down, giving us a what looks like a 1 and 2 of the bull market. Because this wave 1 (as people will call it) will be so powerful, people will be calling it an obvious sign of a super-cycle. This will be my A and B wave of wave 3. Wave 4 will be another deep correction, and many will be calling this wave 1 of wave 3. Something you always need to be aware of in diagonals is the real possibility of a truncated wave 5. The odds of wave 5 truncation go up quite a bit in diagonals. The way way we will be able to figure this out is by looking at the sub-wave counts. If they seem weak and confined it will likely lead to truncation. I do believe truncation is highly likely as a weaker bitcoin could lead to money flowing into altcoins. But only time will tell which it will be. Breaking the Nov-2022 will negate this wave count, but more realistically, breaking March 2023 low will effectively negate this wave count. But this will lead to a more bearish wave count where we are going to get a deeper combo correction. This is highly unlikely at the moment. If we get a higher-than-expected move up through the summer to 55-64k, this will really validate my count. The reason is, a wave 1 of this magnitude would lead to astronomical projections for an impulsive 5-wave move. There will be many trading opportunities within this diagonal. More detailed analysis is required near the highs and lows of this diagonal to find good targets with strong risk-to-reward ratios. Ultimately my target for Bitcoin is between 98k-105k before we get a cataclysmic correction back down below 10k. This correction will present great opportunities as well as it will likely be some kind of flat where wave b retraces a substantial part of wave A before extending slightly beyond the end of wave A.