Crypto-Swing

In this study, I take a close look at the Elliot Wave structure of the movement since March 10 to make sense of this crazy consolidation we have been witnessing since March 23, in the 4-hr chart, refining the wave count of the previous study. Currently sitting on the weekly pivot of $28k, I see a corrective wave structure that has developed, that not only includes two successive symmetric triangle formations, but both being part of a complex irregular Double Three (WXY) correction with a price target of c. $24k. Approximately a $14% correction from the current price. A break below the bottom of the triangle support line could be the trigger for a deeper drop. A confirmed break above the upper resistance line of the triangle will invalidate this scenario. What do you think? Will we see a breakdown towards $24k, or a continuation of the rally up over $30k?

With the Price Divergence growing stronger in the RSI, MACD and Volume, the recent peak to $29.1k in BTC looks like a point from which to correct. In this study, I show the convergence at the $25.5 zone of the 0.5 level of the rising channel, the 1W200MA, the 1D50MA, the 0.618 level of the rally to $29.1k and the Unconfirmed Support level at $25.2k. What do you think, are we in for a 10%+ correction to test the unconfirmed support level around $25.2k? Seems so to me.

Considering the similarities between the current recovery from the November 2022 lows and the 2019 recovery, which would you consider the most likely target for this rally:- $33K, $36k, $43k, or $48k? I will point out that the: 1) Current rally is bouncing off a Wave 2 pivot at $19.5k, with Waves 3-4-5 to go. 2) Weekly RSI is above 52 (a condition for every sustained rally). 3) Weekly MACD signal line has a lot of room to rise. 4) 12MA and 20MA have crossed bullish and are offering support; 5) 50% retracement of the bear market move, coincides with both a line of resistance and the 2.382 Fibonacci projection of wave 1. Or do you think it is all about to collapse back to new lows?

As the number of newly transacting Bitcoin addresses continues to surge in the wake of the SVB Bank Run and failure, the price of Bitcoin is showing a clear Sign of Strength in Wyckoff terms, by rallying strongly through the $25k zone of resistance. In more general TA terms, we can see this as a move above the neckline of a large Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. A confirmed close above this neckline will be a major trend reversal signal projecting a price move to around $36k and possibly eventually even higher towards $40k, $43k, or even $48k. In the weekly chart, the Hammer candlestick, finding support on the 1W 20MA, followed by large, green engulfing bar also looks decidedly pivotal. This is all predicated on a close above the neckline in both the daily and weekly views, but there appears to be strong reasons for the Bulls to be confident here. What do you think? Where will Bitcoin stop on its movement higher? Or is it all just another bull-trap and MtGox coins are about to flood the market, driving prices to new cyclical lows? 😊

In this study, I show the Rising Wedge that has broken down, driving the recent drop, with price finding the support line of the Bullish Megaphone structure for a 3rd time. The current challenges in this chart for bulls to overcome are: The break of the Wedge projects a movement below the support of the Megaphone; A Bear Flag is formed The downward Elliott Wave count is 4, with a 5th leg to go; A break below $21,351 means we are going lower; Once $21.3k breaks, the next support levels are $20.4k and $18.4k. On the other hand, if price can find support above 21.4k and rally, then we could be in for an explosion toward $40K. This is because the Wave 5 (marked in Green) would suddenly transform into a minor Wave 1 and indicate a commencement of a wave 3 leg higher. The good news is, whether it’s a rally from $21.5k, $20.4k, or $18.4k, it certainly seems like the trend is up. What do you think? Are we going towards $40k in quick time, falling back towards $18k before rising higher, about to break down completely and sink back into a continuation of the bear market?

In this study I contrast the 2018 bottom and 2019 recovery with the 2022 bottom and 2023 recovery, in the weekly chart, focused on the respective vertical lines. In each case you will note that the 1W 12MA (purple line) has crossed bullish over the 1W 20MA (brown line), while the 1W 50MA (Golden line) offers resistance to the price action. In 2019 this was resolved with a break above the 50MA line after 4 weeks of consolidation, followed by a substantial (176%) rally. Could history repeat again? Is Bitcoin readying to break above the 1W 50MA to set the conditions for posting some significant gains? There are a few similar features of the respective time periods that mark this market as a potential fractal replay of the 2019 market recovery. Price has broken out from the declining channel of the bear market The RSI looks to be in a similar happy place Although this time, the 1W 200MA (dark blue) appears to have taken the place of the 100MA (light blue). What do you think? Time for new lows or are we about to break higher?

Bitcoin rising to a higher-high resolves the prior minor wave forms into an irregular expanded flat correction , completing an atypical Wave 4 to now be in the throws of tracing out a Wave 5. Consistent with the market structure outlined in my post from Jan 25. What do you think? Is Bitcoin commencing a minor Wave 5 for another rally to higher highs, or are the poor Nigerians and other people around the world suffering under inflation (currency devaluation) seeking an independent store of value not going to have any effect on Bitcoin's price?

With price divergences in the daily and hourly charts suggesting a correction of the rally is due, we see an interesting situation playing out with BTC in the weekly chart. A critical support level exists at around $18.4k that, if broken below, eviscerates the bullish case for a continuation of the rally to a higher-high and instead, opens the doors to a new bear market low. This is because we have an 5-3-5 Elliott Wave count so far from the $15.5k low, that could either be the conclusion of an ABC correction, or waves 1, 2 & 3 of a 5 wave impulse higher. The outcome is not resolved. This gives rise to the potential for two very different scenarios as indicated in the chart at the top by the Bullish and Bearish Case labels. What do you think? Is it all-in bullish or time for a pause to watch for a resolution?

In this study I point out a few of the artifacts in the BTC chart that provide a view of the structural weakness in Bitcoin while hinting at a target end of the bear market. The major elements are: A broken uptrend today of the recent rising channel (pink) at the same time as the larger declining channel (black) intersects its support line, demonstrating its dominance, following a bearish inside bar that projects price weakness. A confluence of intersections occurring most interestingly at $12k between December 22 and 23, with 2x of the previously described declining channel (solid blue) with the 0.618 support line of the primary Bear Market declining channel (dotted blue), with the 1x projection of the primary C-wave projection (1x the A-wave ) and a line of untested support from the end of August 2020. The RSI is testing its upward trendline and the MACD is rolling over. (Notably, on every occurrence when both of these have crossed bearish , the market has had a precipitous decline.) Meanwhile, my Elliott Wave count projects that we are in the final minor leg of the last intermediate downward impulse within the C-wave of the primary ABC correction defining the Bear Market. What do you think? Is it just Apophenia on my part, or does the confluence of all these factors demonstrate structural weakness and project that a final decline to the bear market low is imminent?

In this 4-hour chart I consider the Elliott Wave count and what this might mean for the current posture and ultimate low. I also point out a prior line of resistance is as yet unconfirmed support and the break above the neckline hasn't manifested in bullish confidence or volumes. In doing so I feel I might have answered the question I posed in the last post, identifying that the iH&S reversal pattern is more likely a fake-out than a break-out. What do you think? Are we now entering a final wave 5 of the impulse lower, or is my count wrong, support lined don't need confirmation, volume on bullish indicators is insignificant, and BTC is now unstoppable?