تحلیل تکنیکال Swissquote درباره نماد BTC در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۸/۹

The BTC/GOLD, BTC/S&P 500, and BTC/NASDAQ 100 ratios are defending their major bullish trendlines, and as long as these supports hold, there remains a possibility that the Bitcoin bull cycle linked to the 2024 halving is not yet over. Since the October 6th peak at US$126,000, Bitcoin’s price has been evolving in a consolidation phase that raises questions: is this a simple pause within a broader bullish cycle, or does it mark the end of the uptrend that began in late 2022 and was tied to the spring 2024 halving? To answer this, it is useful to move away from Bitcoin’s nominal price and instead examine its relative performance ratios against other major asset classes. The three main barometers — BTC/GOLD, BTC/S&P 500, and BTC/NASDAQ 100 — are currently near their major bullish trendlines, established from the late-2022 lows. These supports, tested several times over the past eighteen months, structure Bitcoin’s relative dynamics against gold, U.S. equities, and the technology sector. Their preservation is therefore crucial. As long as these three ratios remain above their ascending trendlines, the market structure remains technically bullish in terms of long-term trend. In other words, the underlying move in favor of Bitcoin, which began after the 2022 crash, has not yet been invalidated. The pullback observed since early October could therefore be interpreted as a cyclical support test, or even as an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors. Conversely, a clear and confirmed break of these three supports simultaneously would signal a regime shift — indicating that Bitcoin has stopped outperforming gold and equity indices, opening the door to a prolonged phase of relative underperformance, typical of end-of-cycle behavior. For now, however, buyers are still defending the key levels. The maintenance of the BTC/GOLD, BTC/S&P 500, and BTC/NASDAQ 100 ratios above their bullish trendlines means that, technically, Bitcoin’s bull cycle remains alive. As long as these supports hold, there remains a credible probability that the October 6th peak at $126,000 is not the final top. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. 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