تحلیل تکنیکال Swissquote درباره نماد BTC در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۷/۳۰

Has Bitcoin entered a bear market since its all-time high of $126,000 on Monday, October 6? This is the key question among crypto analysts, especially after the flash crash of altcoins during the Friday, October 10 trading session. From a historical and cyclical perspective, we are indeed approaching the end of the post-halving year — the period during which Bitcoin has typically marked its final cycle top. But can we state with certainty that October 6, 2025 marked the final high? 1) The Current Bitcoin Cycle (Linked to the 2024 Halving) Is Now Longer Than the Previous One but Could Extend Until the End of November The current Bitcoin cycle, initiated after the April 2024 halving, may already have reached maturity. According to correlation data from previous cycles, it has surpassed the duration of the 2020 cycle, which peaked roughly 546 days after its halving. The present cycle has now reached 550 days, suggesting that the market top may have already been reached or could be imminent. However, analyzing the average duration of past cycles also points to late November 2025 as a plausible timeframe for the end of this bull cycle. Two main scenarios therefore coexist: •Either the market top has already been recorded in early October, •Or a final expansion phase could continue until late November 2025, making this cycle as long as the 2016 halving cycle when measured from peak to peak. 2) Bitcoin Bear Market: The Key Technical Pivot Lies at $100–102K On the monthly chart, the $100,000–$102,000 zone stands out as a critical threshold. As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains intact, and the market can still aim for new highs. However, a decisive break below $100,000 would confirm a major trend reversal, marking the start of a multi-month bear market. This technical level therefore acts as the dividing line between the end of the bull cycle and the beginning of an extended corrective phase — historically averaging 13 months in duration. 3) Global M2 Liquidity and Gold as Leading Indicators Suggest a Potential Bullish November If Bitcoin regains its historical correlation with global M2 liquidity, a bullish rebound could take shape as early as November. Historically, M2 money supply growth has preceded or accompanied Bitcoin’s expansion phases, reflecting a favorable liquidity environment for risk assets. Recent signs of monetary easing and financial market stabilization further support this possibility. If this macro trend persists, Bitcoin could experience a strong upward movement in November, supported by improving global liquidity conditions. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.