تحلیل تکنیکال bryandowningqln درباره نماد XRP در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۴/۲۴

In the lead-up to the ETF announcement, XRP experienced a powerful rally, surging to fresh highs and demonstrating significant bullish momentum. The token climbed to the $2.85 zone, marking a substantial gain and outperforming many of its peers in the top tier of cryptocurrencies. This impressive run was fueled by a combination of factors, including the broader market upswing led by Bitcoin, growing optimism around Ripple's legal clarity, and the increasing institutional interest that the ETF launch now epitomizes. However, following this strong upward move, a period of price correction was both expected and healthy. Profit-taking from short-term traders and the natural ebb and flow of the market have led to a slight pullback, bringing key support levels into the spotlight. Currently, XRP is trading above the crucial $2.80 mark and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average, indicating that the underlying bullish sentiment remains intact. A key technical feature that has emerged on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair is a bullish trend line with strong support forming at the $2.820 level. This trend line is acting as a critical floor for the price, and as long as XRP continues to trade above it, the potential for another upward leg remains high. The ability of the price to hold above this level suggests that buyers are actively stepping in to defend it, absorbing selling pressure and laying the groundwork for the next move higher. Should the price dip below this immediate support, the next significant level to watch is the $2.750 zone. A successful defense of this area would further solidify the bullish case, demonstrating the resilience of the current uptrend. A break below this level, however, could signal a deeper correction and a potential shift in short-term market sentiment. For now, the price action suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside, provided these key support levels hold firm. The recent price correction, therefore, should not be viewed as a sign of weakness, but rather as a necessary consolidation phase before the next major rally. It has allowed the market to shake out over-leveraged positions and build a more solid foundation for future growth. The focus for traders in the immediate term will be on the interplay between the established support levels and the renewed buying pressure that is expected to accompany the ProShares XRP ETF launch. A ‘Highly Rare’ Setup Eyes a 60% Gain Past $3 Adding to the bullish narrative surrounding XRP is a compelling technical analysis from a veteran trader who has identified a "highly rare continuation compound fulcrum" setup on the weekly price chart. This complex and infrequently observed pattern suggests that XRP is in the process of forming a major price breakout. The resolution of this setup, according to the analyst, could see the token's value surge by approximately 60%, pushing it past the psychological $3 barrier and towards a target of $4.47 in the coming months. The "compound fulcrum" is a sophisticated chart pattern characterized by a complex base formation. It often consists of multiple smaller patterns, such as failed breakdowns, minor ranges, and wedges, that develop over an extended period. This intricate dance of price action serves to confuse the market, shaking out weaker hands while allowing more determined, long-term investors to accumulate their positions. Once this accumulation phase is complete and the balance of power shifts decisively in favor of the bulls, the price is expected to break out with significant force in the direction of the prevailing uptrend. This bullish outlook is further substantiated by XRP's recent market performance. The token has posted its strongest weekly gain since last November, a clear indication of the growing momentum behind it. This rally has been accompanied by a significant increase in the number of "whale" wallets – those holding at least 1 million XRP. The accumulation of XRP by these large holders has reached a record high, signaling a profound and growing confidence among institutional and high-net-worth investors. This is a powerful leading indicator, as these market participants often have a longer-term perspective and their actions can foreshadow major price movements. A break below the support line near $1.80 would invalidate this particular bullish setup. However, given the current market dynamics and the positive catalysts on the horizon, the probability of such a breakdown appears to be diminishing. The confluence of a rare and powerful technical pattern with strong fundamental developments creates a potent recipe for a significant price appreciation. On-Chain Sentiment Transitions to "Belief-Denial" Beyond the technical charts and institutional news, on-chain data provides another layer of insight into the current state of the XRP market, and the picture it paints is overwhelmingly positive. On-chain sentiment analysis shows that XRP is transitioning from the "optimism-anxiety" phase into the "belief-denial" phase. This shift is a crucial indicator of market psychology and often precedes a period of sustained price growth. The "belief-denial" phase is characterized by a growing conviction among investors that the asset's value will continue to rise, despite any short-term corrections or pullbacks. It is a phase where the market begins to price in the long-term potential of the asset, moving beyond the initial excitement and into a more steadfast and resilient bullishness. This transition suggests that the current rally is not a fleeting speculative bubble, but rather a more sustainable and healthy uptrend. Further supporting this view is the Net Unrealized Profit-Loss (NUPL) metric, which gauges the overall profitability of the market. In previous bull cycles, XRP's price corrections have often coincided with the NUPL entering the "euphoria-greed" zone, a sign of excessive speculation and an overheated market. However, the current data shows that the NUPL is indicating rising investor conviction without any signs of panic selling. This suggests that the current rally is built on a more solid foundation and has room to run before reaching a state of market euphoria. The combination of increasing whale accumulation and the shift in on-chain sentiment points to a market that is maturing and gaining strength. The growing institutional confidence, as evidenced by the record number of whale wallets, is a testament to the long-term value proposition of XRP. As more large investors enter the market, they bring with them not only capital but also a sense of stability and a long-term investment horizon, which can help to dampen volatility and support a more sustainable price trajectory. In conclusion, the upcoming launch of the ProShares XRP ETF on July 18 is set to be a watershed moment for Ripple and its native token. This event is not just a symbolic victory; it is a tangible catalyst that is expected to unlock significant institutional investment and propel XRP into a new era of mainstream adoption. The recent price correction, while causing some short-term uncertainty, has served to strengthen the underlying bullish structure, with key support levels at $2.820 and $2.750 holding firm. The technical outlook is exceptionally bright, with a rare and powerful chart pattern suggesting a potential 60% rally to $4.47. This bullish forecast is strongly supported by the record accumulation of XRP by whale wallets and a clear shift in on-chain sentiment towards a more resilient "belief-denial" phase. As the worlds of traditional finance and digital assets continue to converge, XRP is positioning itself at the forefront of this revolution. The confluence of these powerful factors suggests that the stage is set for a significant and sustained upward movement in the price of XRP, making the coming weeks and months a period of intense interest and opportunity for the entire cryptocurrency market.