تحلیل تکنیکال mertenes3 درباره نماد BTC : توصیه به خرید (۱۴۰۴/۳/۷)

The foreign-exchange (FX) market and the cryptocurrency market both rely on “market makers” and large “suppliers” to provide liquidity and facilitate trading—but the two systems operate on vastly different scales, under different rules, and with very different participant incentives. As crypto’s total capitalization races toward—and potentially beyond—\$5 trillion in the next major bull run, global markets will be increasingly exposed to crypto’s profit-maximizing whales and automated liquidity pools. Unless these structural differences are recognized and addressed, dramatic swings in crypto could spill over into traditional finance.Definition of RolesA market maker is an entity that continuously quotes buy and sell prices, profiting on the spread while absorbing order flow. In FX, these are predominantly regulated bank trading desks (J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, UBS, etc.) that together handle roughly \$7.5 trillion in daily turnover. They operate under capital requirements, central-bank oversight, and risk-management frameworks designed to cap extreme volatility.In crypto, “market makers” include professional trading firms on centralized exchanges (e.g. Jump Trading, Wintermute) and code-driven Automated Market Makers (AMMs) like Uniswap, where any token holder can deposit assets into liquidity pools in return for fees. Unlike banks, AMM suppliers have no regulatory obligation to maintain quotes or hedge risk; they earn yield only when trading volume persists.A supplier (or “liquidity provider”) is any large holder whose stock of currency or tokens affects the supply available for trading. In FX, major commercial and investment banks also act as top suppliers, but they balance client flow management with broader fiduciary and policy considerations. Central banks even step in to smooth markets.In crypto, a tiny fraction of addresses control outsized shares: over 1.86 percent of addresses hold 90 percent of all Bitcoin, and whales with more than 1 million ETH own roughly 32 percent of Ethereum’s supply. These holders—driven by profit and market-timing motives rather than system stability—can on a whim remove or inject vast amounts of liquidity.Comparative Scale and BehaviorLiquidity depth: FX’s interbank pool absorbs massive trades with minimal price impact. Crypto spot volume on top exchanges averages around \$60–80 billion per day—just one-one hundredth of FX volume. Many altcoins trade at volumes measured in single-digit millions, where a single whale order can move prices by double-digit percentages.Volatility and risk: FX volatility is largely driven by macroeconomic data and policy decisions. Crypto volatility is often directly caused by whale transactions: large accumulations off-exchange tighten supply; sudden sell-offs flood order books and trigger crashes. Traders routinely monitor whale wallet movements as a gauge of impending price swings.Market-making obligations: FX banks must quote two-way prices under regulatory frameworks. Crypto AMMs have no quote obligations; liquidity can vanish if token prices diverge from incentives, and CEX market-maker programs can be switched off if profitability erodes.Growing Crypto Caps and Global ExposureOver the past bull cycle, crypto’s total market capitalization surged from roughly \$1 trillion after the 2022 crash to more than \$3 trillion by late 2024. In a mature next bull rally—driven by factors like retail adoption, institutional investment via U.S. ETFs, and on-chain growth—analysts project total cap could reach \$5–10 trillion, perhaps even higher if adoption hits one billion users by 2030. In November 2024 alone, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw over \$3.5 billion of net inflows in a single week, signaling growing institutional interest.As crypto cap grows, profits accrue to whales who then have two options: reinvest in more crypto or deploy capital into traditional assets—equities, bonds, real estate, venture capital. When profit-maximizing whales move funds back into mainstream markets, they become new large suppliers in those markets. Their behavior—driven by short-term returns and unregulated by banking rules—can introduce episodes of excessive risk-taking, sudden mass reallocations, and cross-market contagion. A 30 percent price rally in crypto could translate into tens or hundreds of billions of dollars of buying power flowing into stocks or commodities, inflating asset bubbles. Conversely, a swift whale-led crypto sell-off could generate forced deleveraging in other markets.Risks and Recommendations1. Opacity of supply: Unlike regulated banks, crypto whales and AMM pools operate pseudonymously. Policy makers should require greater transparency around large-wallet activity, potentially via on-chain reporting thresholds.2. Market-making standards: Exchanges and AMM platforms could adopt minimum commitment obligations—analogous to FX banks’ two-way quoting—ensuring liquidity does not collapse when whale incentives shift.3. Surveillance and circuit breakers: Crypto venues should implement robust guardrails—time-outs, price bands, and anomaly detection—to prevent cascading liquidations by large holders.4. Cross-market safeguards: As crypto intersects with ETFs, pension funds, and corporate treasuries, regulators must recognize the systemic linkages and prepare macroprudential policies to mitigate spillovers.ConclusionCrypto markets will never mirror the deep, regulated interbank systems of FX. But as total crypto capitalization approaches and exceeds several trillion dollars, its profit-seeking whales stand poised to exert outsized influence not only on token prices but on the broader global economy. Recognizing the unique behaviors and incentives of crypto market makers and suppliers—and enacting tailored transparency, liquidity, and supervision measures—will be essential to contain the risk that tomorrow’s crypto bull run could unleash today’s market crisis.