تحلیل تکنیکال tradecitypro درباره نماد ARB در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۳/۵

👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!Today we have a deep research analysis on the Arbitrum project, and in this review, I’ll fully break down the project for you. First, let’s take a look at the project’s information, and then we’ll analyze the ARB coin from a technical perspective.🌉 What is Arbitrum?Arbitrum is a Layer 2 scaling solution for Ethereum that leverages Optimistic Rollups to enhance the network’s speed, scalability, and cost-efficiency. By offloading the majority of computation and data storage to off-chain processes, Arbitrum significantly reduces transaction fees while increasing throughput — all without compromising Ethereum’s security and full compatibility.The network’s native token, ARB, plays a central role in governance. With the launch of the decentralized organization Arbitrum DAO, holders of ARB can participate in critical decision-making related to protocol upgrades, treasury allocations, and electing members of the Security Council.🛠 Development and RoadmapArbitrum is developed by the U.S.-based company Offchain Labs. The 2023 roadmap introduced several key developments:The launch of Orbit, a Layer 3 frameworkStylus integration, allowing smart contracts to be written in Rust, C++, and other popular languagesIncreased inclusion of institutional validatorsEnhanced decentralization of Arbitrum OneOn March 16, 2023, Arbitrum announced that 12.75% of its total ARB token supply would be distributed via airdrop to early users and DAOs in its ecosystem. The token generation event (TGE) was executed on March 23, 2023.👥 Founders of ArbitrumArbitrum was founded by three computer scientists from Princeton University:Ed Felten, Professor at Princeton and former U.S. Deputy CTO under President Obama — Co-founder and Chief ScientistSteven Goldfeder, Ph.D. in Computer Science — CEOHarry Kalodner, Ph.D. candidate — CTOIn 2021, Offchain Labs raised $120 million in a Series B funding round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, resulting in a $1.2 billion valuation. Other participants included Polychain Capital, Pantera Capital, and Mark Cuban.🧬 What Makes Arbitrum Unique?Arbitrum sets itself apart through its implementation of Optimistic Rollups, delivering several distinct advantages:Full EVM Compatibility: Ethereum apps can run on Arbitrum without code changesHigh Throughput: Capable of processing thousands of transactions per second with low feesDeveloper Flexibility: Stylus allows for smart contract development in Rust, C++, and moreTrue Decentralization: Transactions are validated by a distributed set of validators, without relying on centralized sequencersArbitrum supports a dynamic ecosystem that includes projects like GMX, Treasure (MAGIC), Camelot (GRAIL), Radiant Capital (RDNT), Vela Exchange, ZyberSwap, Dopex, PlutusDAO, and Jones DAO.As of the latest data from DeFiLlama, Arbitrum reached a peak TVL of $3.2 billion in November 2021 and currently maintains around $1.85 billion, making it the largest Layer 2 network by total value locked.💸 Token Supply and AllocationThe ARB token has a total fixed supply of 10 billion. It is not used for gas payments — transactions are settled in ETH or other supported ERC-20 tokens — but serves solely as a governance asset.The distribution breakdown is as follows:DAO Treasury: 42.78%Offchain Labs team and advisors: 26.94%Investors: 17.53%Airdrop to users: 11.62%Airdrop to DAOs: 1.13%ARB holders participate in governance over both Arbitrum One and Nova, voting on upgrades, resource allocation, feature integration, and treasury decisions.🛡 Network SecurityArbitrum’s security is anchored in Ethereum. Transactions are executed off-chain and posted in batches to Ethereum’s mainnet via Optimistic Rollups. These batches are assumed valid unless contested during a designated fraud-proof window, during which challengers can submit cryptographic evidence of invalidity.💱 Where to Buy ARBARB is available across a wide range of trading platforms, including:Centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, KuCoin, Bybit, Kraken, and BitfinexDecentralized exchanges: Uniswap V3 (Ethereum & Arbitrum) and SushiSwap (Arbitrum)Fundraising and Token VestingSince its inception in 2019, Offchain Labs has completed three major fundraising rounds totaling over $143 million.The Seed round raised $3.7 million from Pantera Capital and Compound VC. In April 2021, the company secured $20 million in a Series A round led by Lightspeed and supported by Mark Cuban. The most significant round, Series B, came in August 2021, with $100 million raised and a valuation of $1.2 billion.Approximately 17.5% of ARB’s total supply was allocated to these investors, subject to a one-year cliff followed by monthly vesting. These funds provided the financial foundation for ecosystem growth, DAO development, and further decentralization.🔓 Token Unlocks and Vesting StatusAs of May 2025, the ARB token distribution is as follows:Unlocked: 4.278 billion ARB (42.74%)Locked: 2.378 billion ARB (23.72%)Untracked: 3.356 billion ARB (33.54%)Market Cap of Unlocked Tokens: ~$1.708 billionThe majority of remaining tokens will unlock monthly until March 2027. Most of these allocations pertain to the team, advisors, and early investors.Current token distribution by role:Team, future members, and advisors: 40.53%Investors: 26.38%DAO Treasury: 13.91%Arbitrum ecosystem DAOs: 1.70%Individual wallets: 17.48%On-Chain Activity – May 2025 SnapshotAccording to DeFiLlama’s latest figures, Arbitrum remains one of the most active and liquid Layer 2 environments. Key indicators include:TVL: $2.63 billionStablecoin market cap: $2.76 billionBridge-in value: $14.02 billionTreasury balance: $21.26 million24h active addresses: 286,46724h network fees: $33,41524h protocol revenue: $33,03224h dApp revenue: $92,96624h DEX volume: $513 million24h derivatives volume: $299 million24h capital inflow: $163.4 millionARB price: ~$0.40Circulating market cap: ~$1.92 billionFully diluted valuation (FDV): ~$3.96 billionRevenue PerformanceArbitrum has maintained a steady and upward revenue trend throughout the past year. On average, the network generates around $2.7 million per month in protocol revenue — primarily from transaction fees. dApps on the network contribute substantially as well, especially through DEXs, derivatives, and lending platforms.With daily protocol revenue averaging $30,000–$35,000, the data reflects ongoing, high-frequency use by both end-users and developers. This recurring income stream enhances the network’s long-term sustainability.🎁 The ARB AirdropOn March 16, 2023, Offchain Labs announced the ARB airdrop as a core component of decentralizing network governance through the creation of the Arbitrum DAO.A total of 12.75% of ARB supply was distributed:11.62% to early users1.13% to DAOs contributing to the Arbitrum ecosystemEligibility was determined via a point-based system that rewarded meaningful engagement — such as using Arbitrum bridges, interacting with dApps, and providing liquidity. The eligibility cutoff date was March 1, 2023.The token generation event took place on March 23, 2023, with ARB going live on major exchanges the same day. Unlike ETH, ARB does not serve as gas; instead, it is used solely for governance.✅ ConclusionOver the past two years, Arbitrum has become one of the most essential infrastructure layers in Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem. Leveraging Optimistic Rollup technology, it has successfully delivered scalability, speed, and cost-efficiency to both users and developers. From a tokenomics perspective, the total supply of ARB is capped at 10 billion, of which over 4.2 billion have already been unlocked. Approximately 2.3 billion tokens remain locked under a structured vesting program set to continue through 2027. A significant portion of these tokens is allocated to the core team, advisors, and early investors.On-chain data further supports Arbitrum’s leading position: with over $2.6 billion in total value locked (TVL), more than $2.7 billion in stablecoin market cap, and over $14 billion bridged into the network, it has firmly established itself among the most robust Layer 2 platforms. This is backed by more than 280,000 active daily addresses and substantial volumes in both decentralized exchanges and derivatives markets.Economically, Arbitrum generates an average daily protocol revenue of $30,000 to $35,000, while dApps on the network collectively bring in over $90,000 daily. On a monthly basis, network revenue exceeds $2.7 million — ranking Arbitrum second only to Base among Layer 2 networks in revenue generation.In summary, Arbitrum stands strong not only in its technical foundation but also in its economic sustainability. With a stable revenue cycle, progressive token unlocks, and consistent user engagement, the network is well-positioned to expand its ecosystem, strengthen DAO governance, and reinforce its competitive edge in the evolving Layer 2 landscape.Now that we’ve reviewed the project, let’s go to the chart and analyze it technically.📅 Weekly TimeframeAs you can see in the weekly timeframe, after the token was listed in mid-2023, and following a correction, the price made a bullish move up to a high of 2.0997. After that, ARB entered a downtrend. There was a very important support level at 0.8038, which was the most critical support for ARB, but during the sell-off, this level was broken. The price formed a new low at 0.4844, then made a pullback to 1.2115 before continuing its decline and reaching a new low at 0.2618.The RSI oscillator during this downtrend remained below the 50 zone, except for when price pulled back to 1.2115 — indicating that the overall momentum has been bearish. For a trend reversal and bullish confirmation, if the RSI makes a higher high and higher low above the 50 level, we can take that as a momentum confirmation.As for price confirmation, the 0.4844 zone is a good reference — the price is currently interacting with this level and ranging just below it. If this level is broken and price consolidates above it while forming a higher high and higher low, we will get confirmation of a trend reversal.This can also be used as a trigger for spot buying. However, it’s better to wait for Bitcoin dominance to turn bearish and then look for a trigger on this chart.📅 Daily TimeframeIn the daily timeframe, we can better observe the price movements. As shown, after rebounding from the 0.2618 bottom, price formed a higher low and higher high, and is currently building a base at the 0.3747 level after reaching the 0.4844 resistance.For long positions or spot buying, given that the trend has turned bullish in the daily timeframe, we can enter if price reacts positively to the 0.3747 support. The main trigger remains the breakout of 0.4844.RSI has been able to stabilize above the 50 level during this cycle. If this continues and RSI stays above 50, the likelihood of a sustained bullish trend significantly increases.The main confirmation of ARB’s bullish reversal will come from breaking 0.4844. But if the price fails to break this level and instead prints a lower high, we could consider a short position with a break of 0.3747.The key support level for ARB is 0.2618. For the broader trend to return to bearish, this level must be broken. If that happens, we’ll likely see some very sharp downward moves.❌ Disclaimer ❌Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.