تحلیل تکنیکال David_financial_analyst درباره نماد PAXG : توصیه به خرید (۱۴۰۴/۲/۱۷)

Gold and the US dollar market showed cautious fluctuations on the eve of the Fed's decision this week. The US dollar index (DXY) hovered between the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band at 97.1389 and the middle track at 101.2661. MACD showed that the short-selling momentum was weakening, and RSI (14) 40.9644 suggested a possible rebound in the oversold area. Spot gold was quoted above the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3297.03. MACD fast and slow lines converged, and RSI (14) 61.45 reflected a mild dominance of bullish momentum.The market focused on the Fed's interest rate decision. Policy uncertainty and the latest economic data made the trend of gold and the US dollar full of variables.Background of the Fed's decision: policy fog and data divergenceThe Fed's meeting this week has attracted much attention. The market generally expects that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until before the July 29-30 meeting. Well-known institutions quoted Fed officials as saying that the central bank needs a clearer economic outlook before deciding on the next interest rate adjustment. However, since the last meeting, economic data has been mixed, and policy uncertainty has further increased. Steve Englander, head of North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered, said bluntly: "The current data is not enough to force the FOMC to make a clear statement. Remaining silent and waiting is a safer choice, especially in the context of high uncertainty in fiscal and tariff policies." This cautious attitude reflects the complex choices faced by the Fed: on the one hand, the contraction of GDP in the first quarter and the decline in consumer and business confidence provide a basis for interest rate cuts; on the other hand, strong employment data, healthy consumer spending and expected tariff-driven inflation pressure support staying put.Inflation signals are complex, gold is under pressure but still supportedInflation data is the core variable of this round of resolutions. The PCE price index preferred by the Fed slowed to 2.3% in March, the lowest in nearly six months, which ostensibly opened up room for interest rate cuts. However, the core inflation rate excluding food and energy is still as high as more than 2.6%, indicating that potential price pressures are tenacious. More importantly, the market expects that tariff policies may push up prices in the coming months, and the Fed needs to judge whether this wave of price increases is a short-term adjustment or a persistent risk. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, warned: "Powell has made it clear that if inflation rebounds, he will prioritize ensuring inflation is under control rather than rushing to cut interest rates." This position puts short-term pressure on gold, as high interest rate expectations may further push up the dollar and compress gold's upside.Nevertheless, gold's safe-haven properties remain attractive in the current uncertainty. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, pointed out: "Soft data (such as business surveys and news uncertainty index) have fallen to the level of the early stage of the epidemic, far exceeding the typical event-driven recession, reflecting market concerns about policy shocks." This "ugly" market sentiment provides support for gold, especially when the US dollar index has not broken through the 200-day moving average of 104.3585 and momentum is weak. If gold can hold the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3297.03, it may challenge the upper track of 3469.82 due to the rebound in safe-haven demand after the resolution.Employment and growth: short-term resilience and long-term concernsThe employment market data provides a reason for the Fed to stay put. In April, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2%, close to full employment. This data weakened the market's expectations for an immediate rate cut, and the US dollar was supported. However, Hatzius reminded: "Hard data often lags in event-driven downturns, and the sharp deterioration of soft data has sent warning signals." The Fed's latest "Beige Book" mentioned "general uncertainty", and companies' concerns about rising prices, layoffs and slowing investment have intensified, suggesting that job growth may soon slow down.In terms of economic growth, GDP unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, mainly dragged down by a record trade deficit. Market analysts believe that this may be related to companies importing in advance to avoid tariff expectations. If imports fall in the coming months, GDP may passively rebound, but if consumption slows due to expectations of rising prices, economic momentum will be limited. This complex outlook makes the Fed more inclined to wait and see rather than rush to adjust its policies. The US dollar index may fluctuate in the range of 97.1389-101.2661 in the short term, and the long-term trend depends on the degree of policy clarity. Gold may maintain a high-level shock pattern due to the interweaving of expectations of economic slowdown and risk aversion.Market sentiment and technical aspects: the focus of the game between gold and the US dollarMarket sentiment is currently highly sensitive. The news uncertainty index soared to the level at the beginning of the epidemic, and corporate uneasiness about tariff policies inhibited recruitment and investment decisions. This contradiction between the deterioration of "soft data" and the resilience of "hard data" has attracted much attention to the wording of the Fed's resolution. If Powell reiterates the priority of anti-inflation at the press conference at 3:30 am on May 8, the US dollar may strengthen in the short term, testing the middle track of the Bollinger Band 101.2661 or even the 200-day moving average of 104.3585; if it releases concerns about economic slowdown, gold may break through the $3,400 mark due to safe-haven demand.From a technical perspective, the US dollar index is supported at the lower track of the Bollinger Band 97.1389, but the MACD short signal has not completely subsided, and the short-term rebound momentum is limited. The MACD fast and slow lines of spot gold converge, indicating that the long-short game has intensified, and the upper track of the Bollinger Band 3469.82 is the key resistance. Traders need to pay attention to whether gold can stand firm in the rising channel since the 200-day moving average of 2765.87 after the resolution, and whether the US dollar can break through 101.2661 to establish a rebound trend.Long-term logic: cautious outlook under policy uncertaintyLooking ahead, the Fed's policy path is still full of variables. The market expects interest rates to remain unchanged at least until the end of July, but the profound impact of tariff policies on inflation and growth may gradually emerge in the second half of the year. If inflation continues to exceed expectations due to tariffs, the Fed may postpone interest rate cuts or even consider raising interest rates. The US dollar will be significantly boosted, and gold will face the risk of a correction. However, if the economy falls into a downturn due to slowing consumption, expectations of interest rate cuts may be rekindled, and the long-term upward trend of gold will continue. Englander concluded: "Before the fiscal and tariff policies become clear, the Fed tends to say less and watch more, and the fluctuations in market asset prices will be more event-driven."This week's Fed resolution is a watershed in the short-term trend of gold and the US dollar. The current market is trying to find a balance between slowing inflation and potential price pressure, employment resilience and growth concerns. The wording of the resolution and Powell's statement will directly affect market sentiment. The US dollar index may fluctuate in the 97-101 range in the short term, while gold will consolidate at a high level in the game between risk aversion and high interest rate expectations. Traders need to pay close attention to the resolution results and technical breakthrough signals, and be wary of market fluctuations caused by policy uncertainty. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD