تحلیل تکنیکال SiDec درباره نماد BTC : توصیه به فروش (۱۴۰۳/۱۲/۸)

Bitcoin recently broke below a 105‐day trading range, anchored by the critical 90K level. After the breakdown, it found support around 80K, prompting a sharp rebound back toward the previous range. This rebound, however, was short‐lived: BTC tested 95K, then quickly retraced, only to rally again toward 90K, where it trades at present.Overview of BTC’s 105‐Day Range Break and Retest:Yearly Open at $93,576: This is the single most important level to watch. Price currently sits below the yearly open, suggesting that, for now, bears hold the upper hand. If bulls cannot reclaim this threshold, the yearly candle remains vulnerable to turning red.90K–95K Resistance Zone: With Bitcoin failing to sustain gains above 95K, this band becomes a natural focal point for potential short entries. Bears are expected to defend this region aggressively.The question: Where do we go next? Let’s break down both the resistance (short setup) and an upcoming support zone (long setup), incorporating a variety of confluences—from volume profiles and trend lines to Fibonacci retracements and pitchfork alignments.1. Resistance Analysis & Short Thesis1.1. Double Top Target at $72,800A double top pattern has formed, suggesting a measured‐move target near $72,800. While not a guaranteed endpoint, this target serves as an early directional clue. Price could still find support at higher levels, so we use this only as one piece of a larger puzzle.Double Top Pattern with $72,800 Target:1.2. The 105‐Day Trading Range & RetestBitcoin spent over 100 days ranging between roughly 90K and 105K. The downside break turned that prior range into a new resistance zone—specifically 90K–95K, with an even stronger cluster up to $96,418 (Point of Control from that range).Fixed Range Volume Profile: The POC (Point of Control) from this 105‐day period lies at $96,418.05, further extending our resistance zone. Price retesting anywhere between 90K and the POC around 96K sets up potential short entries.Fixed Range Volume Profile Showing POC at $96,418.05:Stop Loss Guidance: Given the possibility of wicks or “stop hunts,” a safer invalidation point sits above 98K. That buffer allows the trade room to breathe without prematurely stopping out on minor spikes.1.3. Daily & Weekly Moving AveragesIn addition to the above factors, both the daily 21 EMA/SMA and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA are converging in the 90-92K region, acting as additional resistance.1.4. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork AlignmentBearish Trend Line: Connecting the all‐time high at $109,588 and the swing high at $106,457.44 yields a downward sloping line. This trend line has already acted as resistance near 100K on February 21.Pitchfork (Modified Schiff): Anchoring from the all‐time high (109,588) to the swing low (97,777.77) and back up to 106,457.44 confirms the same bearish trajectory, aligning neatly with the trend line around 95K.Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Convergence Around 95K:1.5. Monthly Order Block & Fibonacci ConfluenceMonthly Order Block: Spanning from the yearly open (93,576) up to the POC (~96,418), this monthly order block forms a substantial supply zone. Price often gravitates toward the median line of an order block, which sits near 94–95K.Fibonacci Retracement (0.786): From the swing high at 99,475 (Feb 21) down to the low at 78,258.52, the 0.786 retracement is at 94,934.67—almost exactly the median line of the monthly order block.Monthly Order Block, Median Line, and 0.786 Fib at ~94,934.67:When price rallies swiftly to the 0.786 for the first time, it often presents an ideal short entry—especially under a confluence of bearish signals:2. Short Trade Setup: Laddering In & Out2.1. Scaling In (Entries)We allocate $25,000 (from a $100,000 account) and ladder our entries from 89,736 up to 96,206:Short Trade Laddered Entries:Stop Loss: $97,560 (slightly below the higher “breathing room” area of 98K).Max Risk: Approximately $1,028.16 (about 4.11% of the 25K position, or 1.03% of the 100k account).2.2. Scaling Out (Exits)We plan to take profits in increments as price drops, aiming for an average exit around $79,822.10:Potential Profit: Approximately $3,704.16 on a $25,000 position, which is +14.82% (or +3.70% of the 100k account).Risk‐to‐Reward Ratio: 3.60, an attractive R:R for a swing trade.3. Support Analysis & Long ThesisHaving addressed the downside retest and short scenario, let’s turn to potential support where Bitcoin might reverse for a long trade.3.1. Double Top Target & 5‐Wave StructureThe double top projected target near $72,800 aligns with a broader Elliott Wave possibility, where BTC may have completed a 5‐wave structure from the low at $15,476 to the all‐time high at $109,588.A typical Fibonacci retracement of this 5‐wave move suggests the 0.382 level at $73,637.22, which sits near a notable swing high of $73,777—coincidence?5‐Wave Structure & 0.382 Fib Retracement at ~$73,637:3.2. Monthly Bullish Order Block & Further Fib ConfluenceMonthly Bullish Order Block: Located around $71,280, historically a place where buyers have stepped in.Fib Retracement (49K to 109K): The 0.618 retracement lands at $72,144.62, adding further confluence around the 72–73K zone.Taken together, we begin to see a support band forming between $73,777 and $71,280.Monthly Bullish Order Block & 0.618 Fib ~$72,144.62:3.3. Fib Speed Fan & Bullish Trend LineFib Speed Fan (0.7): On higher timeframes, the 0.7 fan lines up with the same 71–73K region if BTC dips this month.Bullish Trend Line: Connecting the lows at 49K and 52,550 also aligns with this zone, reinforcing the idea that a cluster of support awaits if price slides that far.Bullish Trend Line & Fib Speed Fan ~$71–73K:3.4. Potential Long Trade SetupEntry Range: Ladder in from 76K down to 71K (or adjust according to personal risk appetite within that 73–71K zone).Stop Loss: Below 70K, providing sufficient buffer.Target: At least the monthly open ($84,350), or higher if momentum supports a stronger bounce.Risk‐to‐Reward (R:R): Aim for 2:1 or better, depending on exact entries and the final target.4. SummaryShort Trade:Resistance Zone: 90K–95K, extending up to $96,418 (POC) and with the daily/weekly 21 EMA/SMA acting as additional resistance in the 90-92K region, plus a stop‐hunt buffer above 98K.Laddered Entry: 25K allocated, averaging around $93,706, with a stop near $97,560.Scaling Out: Average exit near $79,822, netting a +14.82% gain on the position (+3.70% on account).R:R: 3.60—solid for a swing setup.Long Trade:Support Zone: Between $73,777 and $71,280, with multiple Fibonacci and structural confluences.Laddered Entry: Potential DCA from around 76K down to 71K, with a stop under 70K.Target: At least $84,350 (monthly open), likely offering a 2:1 or better risk‐to‐reward.Sharp moves up or down have been the norm lately, often gravitating to the 0.786 fib retracement on each leg, so remain vigilant for sudden volatility.Ultimately, flexibility is key. If Bitcoin reclaims the yearly open at $93,576 and pushes decisively above 95–98K, the bearish case weakens. Conversely, a significant drop below 80K brings the deeper support zone near 73–71K into sharper focus.Always be prepared for shifts in market conditions—confirm each setup with multiple indicators and chart patterns before entering any trade. Stay up to date with evolving market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly.Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next technical analysis.I forgot to mention, there's a bullish butterfly pattern setting up, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 73,637. Another confluence.