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Gold: The Eternal Story of Greed and Fear. How to Stop Believing in Fairy Tales and Look at the Market Objectively?For centuries, gold has been considered a safe-haven asset used by investors worldwide to protect capital from economic and geopolitical turmoil. But does gold truly deserve this status, or is it just an established myth? What is its real value in today’s market conditions?Recently, gold has reached record highs. This is undoubtedly linked to global uncertainty, fears of trade wars between the US and China, and economic instability. However, how stable is gold’s position as a safe-haven asset in the long run? Let’s analyze this in detail.The Historical Role of Gold in Crisis PeriodsGold traditionally rises during economic instability and political turmoil. Historical cycles confirm this: when markets face a crisis, capital flows into gold. However, like any other asset, gold follows cyclical patterns—once tensions ease, its price stabilizes or declines.Now, in 2025, we are witnessing the rapid growth of institutional cryptocurrency funds, which, in terms of capitalization growth, are becoming a serious competitor to gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset. The key question is: when will the trend reverse, and what factors will trigger the decline in market fear, leading to a gold correction?Factors That Could Shift Gold’s TrendTrade War Risks: Reality or Speculation?Gold’s recent rally has largely been fueled by expectations of an escalating trade war between the US and China. However, analyzing Trump’s administration’s policies reveals a pattern: he often prefers making deals over engaging in real conflicts. In the past, he has backtracked on sanctions against Mexico and Canada. A similar scenario is likely with China, reducing market fears and undermining gold’s bullish momentum.Moreover, trade tensions are often used as leverage in negotiations. Investors tend to overreact to aggressive rhetoric in the media, but real economic deals are usually much more moderate. If the US and China reach an agreement, market sentiment could shift rapidly, leading to capital outflows from gold into riskier assets.Current Capital Structure and Its MovementAt present, the stock market is showing limited growth, the cryptocurrency market is in consolidation, but gold continues to rise. This indicates that fear currently outweighs greed among traditional investors. However, in the crypto sector, we see a different trend: institutional investors are accumulating Bitcoin through Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum via Ethereum ETFs. This shift suggests that gold’s dominance as a safe-haven asset may be challenged by digital alternatives.In addition, central banks of several nations are diversifying their reserves. While gold remains a key component, the increasing interest in digital assets and other alternatives, such as tokenized commodities, suggests that the financial landscape is changing. The traditional narrative of gold being the ultimate store of value is being re-evaluated as new technologies reshape investment strategies.Gold vs. the Dollar: What Really Drives Its Price?Gold is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge. However, its recent rally is largely driven by the weakening US dollar rather than genuine demand. Given the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, interest rates are likely to decline in the near future, injecting more liquidity into the market. Historically, this has fueled asset price inflation. However, unlike in previous cycles, gold now faces real competition from digital assets, which are also attracting institutional capital.Additionally, with a more dovish Fed approach, the weakening of the US dollar may not provide the same bullish momentum for gold as it did in previous years. Investors now have access to a much broader range of inflation-hedging instruments, including commodities like lithium and rare earth metals, which are becoming increasingly valuable in the high-tech and energy industries.Medium-Term Gold OutlookBased on the current macroeconomic landscape, gold appears to be at the peak of its growth cycle and may face a correction soon. The main factors that could trigger a reversal include:Partial or Full Lifting of Sanctions on RussiaPolitical shifts in this direction could reduce global geopolitical risks, weakening demand for gold as a protective asset. The easing of tensions in Eastern Europe would also signal to investors that geopolitical risks are receding, making riskier assets more attractive compared to gold.A US-China Trade DealHistorically, the US administration has always prioritized economic benefits. A trade agreement between the two countries is highly probable, which would lower market concerns and decrease gold’s appeal as a safe-haven. If this happens, funds currently allocated to gold could start flowing back into equity markets and emerging economies.The Rise of Alternative Safe-Haven AssetsAnother critical factor affecting gold’s future is the emergence of alternative safe-haven assets. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, have been increasingly perceived as "digital gold" by institutional investors. The rapid adoption of Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum-based investment vehicles shows that institutional capital is gradually diversifying away from traditional assets like gold.Moreover, central banks are exploring digital currencies (CBDCs), which may reduce the reliance on physical assets as a store of value. If CBDCs gain broader adoption, gold’s traditional role in financial reserves may be diminished.Conclusion: Gold Is No Longer UnrivaledDespite its centuries-old status as the ultimate safe-haven asset, gold will face serious competition in the coming years. Its capitalization is immense, and capital redistribution is inevitable, with new assets such as cryptocurrencies gaining prominence.At the same time, the traditional drivers of gold’s value—geopolitical instability and inflation—are no longer exclusive to this asset. Investors now have a wider range of options to protect their wealth, including digital assets, commodities, and alternative investment vehicles.Of course, if a global crisis erupts, gold will reclaim its defensive role. However, in the medium term (3-4 months), its growth potential appears limited. We are likely to see either a trend reversal or a prolonged period of price stagnation, as capital flows shift from traditional assets to emerging alternatives.In a world of evolving financial instruments and digital assets, gold is no longer the only fortress against uncertainty. Investors who fail to adapt to these changes risk being trapped in outdated narratives—believing in a safe haven that may no longer provide the ultimate security it once did.