تحلیل تکنیکال The_ForexX_Mindset درباره نماد BTC : توصیه به خرید (۱۴۰۳/۱۱/۲۴)

The Long Position Target: $110,357Let’s talk about the significance of the $110,357 level and why I’ve chosen this as the next important milestone in Bitcoin’s price action. Originally, the ultimate target of $114,000 is still valid, but we’re adjusting expectations and bringing it down slightly to $110,357. Here’s why:Why Adjust from $114,000 to $110,357?The $114,000 target represents the broader potential for Bitcoin, but to stay practical and avoid overanalyzing, $110,357 provides a more realistic short-term focus.This level aligns with liquidity zones where the market is likely to pause. It’s a safer point to monitor for a potential pullback rather than waiting for a full extension to $114,000.What Makes $110,357 Significant?Liquidity Measurement: This price represents a key area where stop-loss clusters, take-profit orders, and late trader entries are likely to occur. These factors make it a magnet for price action before any major reversal.Psychological Impact: $110,357 is a natural level below $114,000 that allows for a controlled move without overextending.Dynamic Pinnacle Channels: The dynamic channels I’ve constructed show bearish pressure building at higher levels, making $110,357 a natural point of exhaustion for bulls.Guidance from the Trendline and Wick AlignmentThe dotted white trendline offers a clear directional guide for price movement. It connects wick levels to candlestick body facts, which reinforces the breakout target of $104,369 and, subsequently, the push toward $110,357.Wicks provide confirmation of bullish momentum, showing how price is being guided within the trendline structure.The Role of Dynamic Pinnacle ChannelsThe Dynamic Pinnacle Channels are critical in understanding market sentiment and identifying key levels for price interaction:Bearish Signals: These appear at the top of the channels, highlighting zones where selling pressure dominates. These levels often act as resistance points, where bullish momentum starts to slow down.Bullish Signals: Found at the bottom of the channels, these represent areas of buying interest and market support, helping to pinpoint potential reversals.These channels act as trend dynamics, allowing traders to visualize the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. By watching how price interacts with the channels, you can better anticipate directional moves and prepare for critical moments in the trend.Wick Guidance and Trendline ImportanceThe ray-dotted white trendline provides essential guidance for understanding the current trend and price action:Wick Guidance:The trendline connects the wicks of the candles, providing insight into the market’s true momentum. Wicks often reflect the market's attempts to reach specific levels before retracing.In this case, the wicks highlight Bitcoin’s upward push toward $104,369, signaling the potential for further bullish movement.Candlestick Body Facts:The trendline also aligns with the candlestick bodies, offering confirmation of the prevailing trend. This alignment strengthens the narrative of a breakout toward $104,369 and subsequently $110,357.By connecting the most recent pinnacle to the trendline, we see a clear path that price is likely to follow, reinforcing the overall direction of the market.How Does $110,357 Fit Into the Bigger Picture?The $110,357 level acts as a stepping stone toward the larger target of $114,000. By focusing on this intermediate level, we can make realistic decisions based on current market dynamics.It also helps us manage expectations. Rather than getting caught up in the broader move to $114,000, we’re prioritizing a level that the market can reasonably reach before pulling back.Trading Strategy Around $110,357Long Position to $110,357The breakout from $104,369 is the key confirmation for the move toward $110,357. Traders can aim for this target as part of a continued bullish trend.I recommend using tight trailing stops as price approaches $110,357 to lock in profits and avoid getting caught in a sudden reversal.Watch for the PullbackAfter testing $110,357, a pullback is highly likely. Where this pullback ends will depend on liquidity at that time, and I’ll be measuring those levels carefully to identify potential short opportunities.The pullback could align with the earlier target of $105,252 or stabilize lower, depending on how aggressive the bullish momentum is.Short-Term Focus to Avoid OverthinkingBy focusing on $110,357 instead of $114,000, we prevent overanalyzing or waiting for extreme moves. This ensures a practical trading approach while maintaining flexibility to adapt if the market conditions change.Why Liquidity Matters HereLiquidity zones play a critical role in these price movements. Levels like $99,139, $105,252, and $110,357 are magnets for price action because they hold:Stop-loss orders from shortsTake-profit orders from longsBreakout entries from late tradersFalse breakouts often occur as price overshoots these levels by a small margin (e.g., $1,000) to grab liquidity. For example, Bitcoin could push slightly above $110,357 before reversing, trapping late buyers. This is why it’s crucial to stay vigilant at these key levels.Final ThoughtsPay close attention to the Dynamic Pinnacle Channels, as they continue to provide valuable context:Bearish signals appear at the top of the channels, indicating selling pressure is building.Bullish signals at the bottom show where buying strength is concentrated.Additionally, the white dotted trendline remains a critical guide, showing how price action aligns with both wicks and candlestick bodies.For now, the focus remains on $110,357 as a realistic and achievable target. Once we reach this level, we’ll reassess liquidity and market sentiment to determine the next steps, whether it’s preparing for a short position or waiting for a pullback to stabilize.I’ve laid a copy over the original chart, so please ignore the dates from the original chart. The prices are nearly aligned, so the focus should remain on the overall analysis rather than specific dates. For Viewing the Chart Copy Clearly (with Dates and Prices, if needed): •On Mobile Devices: Rotate your screen horizontally and use a browser to view the chart. This will allow you to move the copy around for better visibility. •On PC or Laptop: You can manually adjust the overlay by dragging it to explore the chart in greater detail. Chart Compression: The copied chart may appear slightly compressed, but it is closely aligned with the original chart in terms of price structure. Any minor discrepancies in alignment should not affect the overall analysis. This idea is intended to highlight patterns and provide insights, not to pinpoint exact dates or price levels. Use these visuals as part of a broader, flexible strategy rather than fixed predictions or outcomes.The price movements are unfolding as expected within this channel. There’s no need for panic; stay composed and let the market play out.Next target- $98,323There’s capital which has shifted into Shiba.Whales seem to be driving the price upward—could this mark the start of the bull run? Interestingly, my coded candles are forming with a threshold that appears uneven relative to the volume.A 2% positive price movement can serve as a strong signal that bullish momentum has taken hold in the market. Here’s a detailed breakdown: 1.Price Action Confirmation: A sustained 2% upward movement often indicates buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. When this happens during a significant trend or near a key support/resistance level, it suggests that market participants (including institutions or whales) are confident in further upward price action. 2.Market Sentiment: Such a price surge often aligns with increased optimism among traders and investors. It reflects a shift in sentiment, with more participants expecting prices to rise, thus reinforcing the bullish trend. 3.Technical Validation: In many cases, a 2% gain can break through psychological or technical levels (like resistance zones), which further solidifies the bullish case. Traders look for confirmation of trends through consistent follow-through, and a move like this could validate that the market is “loose” in favor of the bulls. 4.Volume and Participation: A positive drive accompanied by strong volume reinforces the legitimacy of the move. It shows that the price action is supported by genuine market interest rather than thin liquidity or manipulation. 5.Bullish Indicators: If technical indicators (like moving averages, RSI, or volume-based signals) align with this upward drive, it adds another layer of confirmation. For instance, crossing above a key moving average can signify that the market has transitioned into a bullish phase. 6.“Loose” Bull Description: The phrase “the bull has been loose” implies that bullish forces are now in control of the market, potentially leading to sustained upward momentum. This could signify the start of a more significant rally or continuation of an existing trend. In essence, the 2% drive acts as a tipping point, marking the beginning or reinforcement of a bull market, especially if other factors like volume, sentiment, and technical alignment support the move.Based on this analysis, be cautious—there is significant resistance at $99,139. It’s advisable to hold off on entering a trade for now. Waiting for a pullback could present a better opportunity, with the next potential target being $102,000 but first let’s deal with $98,323With many traders entering late into the trade, patience is now key. The short position is currently set at $96,519, so the focus shifts to observing the next price movements closely ☢️. The next long position is at $98,245.Target hit for $96,519Short position updated to $96,266. It’s a possibility. Right now I’m dealing with $96,519.This analysis highlights an intriguing scenario in the cryptocurrency market, signaling the potential onset of an altseason, where altcoins outperform Bitcoin. Here’s a detailed breakdown: 1.Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum: •Bitcoin is showing strength and is “primed for a bull run.” This means BTC is gaining positive momentum, likely moving upwards due to increased demand, positive sentiment, or favorable market conditions. •A strong Bitcoin is generally good for market stability as it builds confidence across the cryptocurrency market, often attracting new capital. 2.BTC Dominance (BTC.D) Declines: •BTC.D measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. When BTC.D declines during Bitcoin’s rise, it indicates that capital is flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins. •This dynamic often happens during the early phases of altseason, where investors seek higher returns by diversifying into smaller-cap cryptocurrencies. 3.TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 Rising: •TOTAL2 represents the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, while TOTAL3 excludes both Bitcoin and Ethereum. •When these metrics rise while BTC.D falls, it suggests a significant inflow of capital into altcoins. This is often a clear sign that the altcoin market is heating up, potentially leading to substantial gains. 4.Altseason Signals: •The metaphorical “ring bell” indicates that altseason is approaching. As BTC.D continues to drop and TOTAL2/3 rise, the market could see a major shift where altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin. •Traders often prepare for this by identifying strong altcoin projects that are positioned to benefit from this shift in market dynamics. 5.TOTAL2 Preparing for a Breakout: •A breakout in TOTAL2 means that the total market cap of altcoins is set to breach a key resistance level, potentially leading to rapid growth. •If TOTAL2 does break out, it could mark the beginning of an explosive altseason, where altcoins experience significant upward price movement. 6.Call to Action: •The final statement, “If so, be ready,” urges traders to prepare for potential opportunities. This means closely monitoring the market for confirmation of the breakout and planning trades accordingly. In summary, the combination of Bitcoin’s bull run, a decline in BTC dominance, and rising altcoin market caps suggests that altseason is near. Savvy traders should stay alert, watch for breakouts in TOTAL2 and TOTAL3, and position themselves for the potential opportunities ahead.If you’re considering entering the trade, I would advise against it. My risk tolerance is nearing its limit, and this phase of Bitcoin’s movement is highly volatile. For short-term traders, it’s crucial to set a tight stop-loss, as Bitcoin appears to be entering a phase of significant manipulation. This manipulation often precedes a massive bullish breakout, but it carries a high level of uncertainty and risk. Proceed with caution and prioritize risk management in this unpredictable environment.$98,323 needs to get filled before a pullbackFOREXX NEWS UPDATE: Stay tuned as I dive into Bitcoin’s bull run. This bullish momentum has arrived as anticipated, and the potential for even higher targets is on the horizon. Don’t miss the details!Let me share a little secret with you all—this isn’t the bull run I’ve been referring to. Stay tuned, and I’ll reveal the full details soon.A Shift in Smart Money’s Game Plan Smart money knows the world is expecting prices to crash down. Everyone’s anticipating a major downturn, but it seems to me that smart money might have shifted its strategy to the upside. Last week, I mentioned we’d see a bull run before the end of 7 days, and so far, 3 days have passed. I was patting myself on the back thinking, “Way to go!” But no, this can’t be the bull run I was talking about—it’s incomplete. Let me explain why. The Role of USDT.D Right now, USDT.D (Tether Dominance) is in the middle of what’s known as a pump-and-dump cycle. Currently, it’s still in the "pump" phase. This is critical because until USDT.D finishes pumping and starts its dump, the real bull run can’t begin. Here’s the timeline I’m watching closely: USDT.D’s 2-week timeframe closes this Sunday (2/16/25) at 4:00 PM PT. Once the new 2-week timeframe begins, the dump phase for USDT.D kicks off. When that happens, the big bull will finally go loose. What Happened Today: Junior the Bull Let’s talk about today’s price action. What we saw was not the big bull I’ve been waiting for—it was Junior, the bull’s son. The real bull is still locked up in its cattle trailer. Why? Because smart money restrained it. They’ve put it to sleep to keep it under control, preventing it from running wild up the candles. So, whatever Bitcoin is doing now? Think of it as a taste—buffalo wings compared to the steak dinner that’s coming. This is just a teaser of what’s ahead. The Bullish Block & The Missing Piece Now, I want you to take a good look at the bullish block on the chart. Do you see the empty space to the right of it? That’s the missing piece. I left that space because that’s where the new 2-week timeframe begins after 4:00 PM PT this Sunday. That’s the bullish candle I’m waiting for. Until then, Bitcoin might still tease us, but the real action hasn’t started yet. Bitcoin’s Path: Consolidation or Trap? Can Bitcoin fall below 2K? It’s possible, but unlikely. Instead, here’s what I think is more realistic: Consolidation: Bitcoin might consolidate over the next 4 days, giving us those frustrating ups and downs designed to shake out retail traders. This consolidation fuels the bull because it builds the energy needed for the next explosive move. Bull Trap: Remember when I said a couple of weeks ago that we’d have a bull run that turns out to be a bull trap? It was delayed, but what we saw today might have been it. While retail traders are super excited, this could be smart money’s plot to keep them from getting in at lower prices. Hidden Secrets in Price Action Let me share a little secret about the market. Did you notice the sudden price drop today at 3:30 PM PT? It fell from $97,761 to $95,761 in the blink of an eye, but then it recovered instantly. What does that tell us? This was smart money testing the waters. The price fall was rejected immediately, which signals strength. They’re leaving signs and hidden messages in the market if you know how to read them. This rejection tells me the bull is still gearing up. The Big Picture: TOTAL2, TOTAL3, and Altcoins Let’s shift our focus to TOTAL2 and TOTAL3—the total market caps excluding Bitcoin and excluding both Bitcoin and Ethereum, respectively. Something big is brewing here. Smart money has started to slowly move into altcoins, and the stage for altcoin season is more ready than ever before. Despite everything happening, my analysis is always real-time. I don’t report on ideas that might happen in 1–2 months—I focus on what’s forming right now. And what I see is a herd of bulls making their way, slowly but surely. The Catch: USDT.D Still Pumping The only downside right now is USDT.D’s ongoing pump. Until it finishes, we might see Bitcoin consolidate or dip slightly lower—but nothing drastic. This pump needs to play out before we can truly unleash the bulls. Once USDT.D starts its dump, that’s when the market will light up. Final Thoughts Whatever happens moving forward, accept it as part of the process. The massive bull run is coming—it’s just waiting for the right time to charge. When it does, it’s going to print candles hot off the press. Until then, stay cautious, watch for signs, and don’t let retail euphoria trap you.short position for $96,606Target hit for $96,606We are moving down toward the short position target of $95,806 as anticipated. I previously highlighted the possibility of a bull trap weeks ago, and today, I advised being prepared for a potential $2,000 drop should it occur and is.2K drop target hitTarget hit at $95,806 and price dropped to $95,803Long position target $96,589Long and short positions will range between $95,806 to $96,589.Let me explain why Bitcoin is expected to enter a bull run soon. Dark pools—the hidden networks that process private transactions—have shown mismatched Bitcoin volumes on key dates: 1/6, 1/17, and 1/21. These mismatches reveal a significant pattern: dark pools are not only driving prices down but are also positioning to push them up. The volume discrepancies on these dates signal the potential for three major price spikes. This observation is supported by analysis on the daily timeframe, further reinforcing the idea that these movements are not random but strategically aligned.With Bitcoin approaching its anticipated bull run, Ethereum (ETH) is also expected to follow suit, likely experiencing its own surge. As for altcoins, they hold an element of surprise that will soon unfold. A new idea is on the horizon where I’ll reveal a specific bull run date and explain how this wave of bullish momentum will be unleashed. Do you hear it? The sound of running bulls charging ahead? It’s something I sense—like instincts transforming into an undeniable rhythm. To me, these signals are impossible to ignore, marking the beginning of an exciting phase in the market.I’ve developed an Altcoin threshold system, similar to the methods I’ve used to evaluate Bitcoin. Using a carefully decoded formula, I’ve been able to determine how high TOTAL2, TOTAL3, and OTHERS.D are likely to rise. These metrics are key indicators of the altcoin market’s total performance—TOTAL2 reflects the total market cap excluding Bitcoin, TOTAL3 excludes both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and OTHERS.D focuses on dominance outside the top players. What I’ve discovered here is a game-changer. This formula doesn’t just provide projections; it outlines the potential for massive gains. If these thresholds are hit, it could bring monumental returns to those who act on the opportunity. I’m already thinking I’ll need an armored truck for my earnings—will you be ready with yours? This isn’t just about speculation; it’s about strategic preparation for what’s coming in the altcoin market. Stay tuned—within the next few minutes, I’ll reveal how high this move is expected to climb, fueled by the current volatility.All projections were first analyzed using the 2-week and 1-month timeframes for accuracy. —OTHERS.D is currently at 8.63% and is expected to climb to 13.31%, with a further potential rise to 15.79%. —TOTAL2 (total market cap excluding Bitcoin) stands at 1.22T and is projected to increase to 1.74T, and eventually to 2.03T. —TOTAL3 (total market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) is at 899.05B and is anticipated to rise to 1.21T, followed by 1.51T. These targets are not static and are subject to change, potentially moving even higher as market conditions evolve. When the time comes, I’ll reevaluate these numbers to account for new data and market adjustments, ensuring the projections remain relevant and accurate.Long position target now filled $96,589Next target long position $97,777Here’s something important to understand: when one of my targets is hit, the price often moves in the opposite direction shortly after. For example, if a long position target is filled, the price might start to fall or consolidate. The same applies to short positions—if the target is hit, the price could rise or go sideways. This happens because when a target is reached, many traders start closing their positions to lock in profits. This profit-taking can shift the market’s momentum, leading to a reversal or a period of consolidation. Additionally, these target levels are often areas of high liquidity, where larger players (like institutions or whales) may step in and make moves that push the price the other way. So, if you notice this pattern, it’s not random—it’s how the market reacts to key levels and the behavior of traders around them.Target long position is still to reach $97,777 as mentioned 16 hours ago.Nothing has changed—I report what I observe, not based on the trend’s direction. Currently, the market is in a downtrend, but my target remains at $97,777. When the London market closes, many day traders from that session exit their positions. This can cause a temporary reduction in price because their trades create selling or buying pressure, depending on whether they were long or short. As the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) opens, fresh trading activity begins, often led by U.S.-based traders and institutions. This overlap between the London close and the New York open is a key transition period where price movements can become more volatile or shift direction, depending on the market’s sentiment and any news or data influencing traders. This is why you might notice price fluctuations during this time—it’s simply the result of trading activity shifting between these major market sessions.