تحلیل تکنیکال The_ForexX_Mindset درباره نماد BTC : توصیه به خرید (۱۴۰۳/۱۱/۱۶)

1. Market Structure & Price ActionThe chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 15-minute timeframe, meaning each candlestick represents 15 minutes of price movement.•Uptrend Formation:oThe market has been in a clear uptrend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows.oMultiple trendlines suggest that price was following a structured move upward before reaching resistance.•Current Price Behavior:oA pullback is happening. After a strong upward push, BTC is consolidating.oShort-term bearish movement is visible, with price testing lower support zones.________________________________________2. Key Technical LevelsResistance Zones (Red Lines)•These levels are areas where sellers previously stepped in, halting upward movement.•If BTC pushes higher again, these zones will be the next major obstacles.Support Zones (Green Lines)•The green levels indicate price areas where buyers have historically shown interest.•BTC is testing these support areas now, and a reaction here could determine the next move.Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP - Blue Line)•This dynamic level acts as a moving support/resistance.•Price is currently hovering around it, meaning buyers and sellers are closely balanced.________________________________________3. Highlighted Zones & What They MeanVolume Pocket (Gray Label)•This marks an area where a large amount of trading activity took place.•These pockets often act as magnetic zones, meaning price is attracted to them.•If BTC holds above it, it signals strong buyer interest; if it breaks below, it may indicate weakness.Consolidation Block (Blue Box)•This is a range where price is moving sideways.•When price enters a consolidation phase, it's gathering momentum before the next big move.•A breakout above means a continuation of the uptrend; a breakdown below could lead to a further drop.________________________________________4. Trendlines & Price Projection•Dotted Green Uptrend Line: Shows the larger trend direction—if price respects this, we may see further upside.•Dotted White Lines: These mark smaller trends and breakout zones.•Dotted Red Line: Indicates recent short-term bearish pressure—price is struggling to break above this.________________________________________5. What to Watch Next1.Holding Support?oIf BTC stays above the support and VWAP level, we could see a bullish move back toward resistance.oA strong bounce from this zone would confirm buyers are stepping in.2.Breaking Below the Consolidation Block?oIf BTC loses support, price may enter the consolidation block.oThis could lead to a retest of lower levels, possibly near $97,000.3.Volume ConfirmationoIf volume increases on a move upward, it strengthens the bullish case.oIf BTC drops with rising volume, it signals sellers gaining control.________________________________________Final TakeawayBTC is at a critical decision point. Either: ✅ Bulls defend support, leading to a continuation of the uptrend. ❌ Bears push price lower, and BTC may enter a bigger consolidation or downtrend.This is a neutral-to-bullish setup, but confirmation is needed._____________________________________________________________ Now that we’ve broken down the chart structure, let’s focus on potential trade setups based on different scenarios.1. Bullish Trade Setup (If Support Holds)Entry Plan:•Ideal Entry Zone: $100,250 - $100,750 (Green Support Area & VWAP)•Confirmation:oA strong bounce with bullish candles.oIncreasing volume on the upside move.oBreakout above the recent consolidation block (Blue Box).Take Profit (TP) Levels:•TP1: $101,390 - $101,500 (First resistance level)•TP2: $103,780 - $104,000 (Stronger resistance zone)•TP3: $106,100 - $106,470 (Major resistance & potential reversal area)Stop Loss (SL):•Below $100,250 (Invalidation level; if price breaks below, sellers take control).•A tight stop could be around $99,900, while a wider stop would be $99,500 for safety.Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):•Aiming for at least a 1:2 or 1:3 RRR, meaning for every $1 risked, the target should be $2-$3 in return.✅ Best Entry Signal:•Price bouncing off support with increasing volume.•A bullish engulfing candle appearing near VWAP.•Reclaiming the consolidation block (Blue Box) as support.________________________________________2. Bearish Trade Setup (If Support Breaks)Entry Plan:•Entry below: $100,250 or after a clear breakdown from the consolidation block.•Confirmation:oFailure to reclaim the support zone.oIncreasing selling volume.oBreakdown below trendlines, confirming downside pressure.Take Profit (TP) Levels:•TP1: $99,500 - $99,000 (First liquidity zone)•TP2: $97,000 (Consolidation Block mid-level)•TP3: $95,000 or lower (Stronger demand area)Stop Loss (SL):•Above $100,800 (Invalidation level; if price reclaims the lost support, it’s no longer a short setup).Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):•Looking for a 1:2 or 1:3 ratio.•Better entry would be on a retest of the broken support, ensuring confirmation.❌ Best Short Signal:•A strong rejection candle at resistance.•Breaking below VWAP with selling volume.•Lower highs forming, confirming bearish structure.________________________________________3. Range-Bound Strategy (If BTC Stays Inside the Consolidation Block)•If price remains stuck in the blue box, you can play a scalping range strategy:oBuy near the bottom of the box (~$99,500-$100,250).oSell near the top of the box (~$101,000-$101,500).oUse tight stops in case of a breakout.________________________________________Risk Management Tips✔ Always use a stop loss to protect capital.✔ Avoid chasing price—wait for confirmations.✔ Adjust position size based on risk—never risk more than 1-2% of your total capital on a single trade.✔ Volume analysis is key—strong volume confirms direction.________________________________________Final Thoughts•Bullish Scenario: Watch for support hold, volume increase, and a push above $101,000.•Bearish Scenario: Breakdown of $100,250 with selling volume could trigger a drop to 97K or lower.•Neutral/Scalping Play: If price stays in the consolidation block, play the range.(I added a price of $99,566 in connection with the red trend line) This is a 15-minute timeframe idea, but be warned—this can be the most chaotic noise you’ll face. It can work for you or against you, but let’s be clear: if it fails and you’ve entered the trade, stay calm. The bigger picture remains—117K is the true target, with $108,727 as the next key level.This idea "BTC Entry for the Big Move" is in connection with Smar Money Squeeze Manipulation at its finest$99,566 is hitting the Heikin Ashi threshold. I don’t typically use Heikin Ashi for analysis, but the contrast between volume and Heikin Ashi is revealing a key difference in the two lower trendline rays. These rays serve as support before even considering the 97K zone. Since the 97K zone was considered. There is now a short position of $98,063. We will be dealing with 97K to 98K but first let’s deal with $99,566. As I’ve stated before. This will go slow to the upside and why? Read below— Zigzag Accumulation → Stealthy Reversal** - Institutions use a choppy, uncertain price pattern to discourage retail traders from jumping in early. Expect slow, staggered moves up rather than a straight breakout to prevent FOMO buying.“Stay calm—once again. While some are holding long positions, others are shorting. Many jumped in during FOMO, and now, just as many are making their exits. Heiken Ahí trendline $99,566 target has been hit and any lower will be the short position target of $98,063”“Whatever you do—remain steady. Stay long but If you went on a short trade, Don’t fall prey to institutional traps. Know when to exit. Now, when it comes to investing as a trader, I won’t tell you what to do—I’ll just share how I apply it to myself. Let me be upfront about where my funds stand. There’s a long backstory, but I’ll keep it short. Since yesterday, I’ve been debating whether to add more funds or stay put. I had the liquidity, but those weren’t trading funds—they were allocated elsewhere. And because of that, I held back. I had the opportunity to enter SHPING at its lowest point, and if I had, I could have cashed out today with a solid profit. Yet, I chose not to enter. Why? Because I have a rule: I never invest what isn’t meant for trading. That’s my discipline. All my trading funds are fully invested. While I stay invested, I don’t waste time—I’m using this period to learn, refine, and develop. Because that’s the real edge in this game. My advice to myself? Stay put. Never sell for a loss. Not because of hope, but because I didn’t invest money I’d need elsewhere. I only put in what I can afford to leave in the market, no matter what direction it takes. Here’s the thing—there will come a time when knowledge alone will secure investment. I’m almost there. And so can you. But that means staying sharp, staying independent, and never relying on another trader to make your investment decisions. The market is ruthless, but discipline and knowledge are the shields that keep you in the game. Institutions will shake weak hands—but if you’ve done your groundwork, you won’t be one of them.”Short position $98,063 target hit.A mod banned me and **wiped my ideas from view.** I’m not in the mood to talk—this wasn’t just moderation, it was **erasure.** They didn’t just take down posts; they **silenced** an idea that laid smart money bare. The timing is no coincidence. I’m stepping away for now, but know this—**the truth doesn’t vanish just because someone tries to bury it.**