تحلیل تکنیکال Shadowfigure درباره نماد SOL : توصیه به خرید (۱۴۰۳/۹/۱۶)

To start our TA here let's look at the Weekly Chart. We can see on first look that Solana is at it's all time high for the first time since November 2021 (3 years). It hit a low of $8 in December 2022 (man don't we all feel dumb!?) 🙂Zooming in to the Daily Chart, we take a look at the 200 day MA. I bring this up now as you'll find me look at it a lot. My hypothesis (which I may have learned elsewhere), is if an asset (especially a crypto asset) is above it's 200-day Moving Average (meaning the current price is higher than the average of the last 200 days), then we are in a Bull Market. The opposite is also true. If we spend significant time below the 200-day and we bounce off of it, we are in a Bear Market. As seen on the chart. What is critical when we cross the line, is that when we retest it, we bounce. You don't want to use this as an immediate rule, as in many cases you can find assets cross below their 200-day. If you are confident in market conditions, this can be an optimal buying or selling opportunity depending on your bet (Buying in a bull market, selling in a bear market).Zooming in further on the chart, we see the most recent consolidation phase for Solana. It is critical when analyzing charts to recognize the different shapes and be able to draw them and understand what they could mean. This is not a foolproof strategy, but a highly probable hypothesis that you can use to try to predict the next move. Use other signals and indicators to test your hypothesis to potentially increase its likelihood, or invalidate it. We are being purely objective. This pattern is clearly a Bullish Pennant Pattern which can be found: reddit.com/media?url=https://i.redd.it/8nrgx1pmbot51.jpgZooming in even further on the 1 hour chart we note that Solana just peaked over the previous all-time high (ATH) of $260.00 and hit $264.63. It was rejected off of that level, leading to fear. Many people bought the top thinking it would just blast off. Things don't work that way. ATH is a strong resistance and requires significant effort and reason to beat, especially for a top 10 Market Cap coin. So we look at a few indicators to understand what could happen next without making any rash decisions. The first thing I notice is the significant BUY VOLUME as noted by the tall green bars at the bottom of the chart.Secondly, we have a Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern that has printed and now broken out with strong buy volume confirmation. Third, it just so happened that on December 3rd, 2024, the NYSE and Grayscale filed for a Solana ETF with the SEC.Notice how we use multiple data points to help support our hypothesis for a continued uptrend. Knowing the current bullish environment, and what we've seen so far. The most likely scenario is a continued uptrend and a breakout from the ATH. Once the ETF is approved and on the market, institiutional buying could lead to parabolic moves. This is not investment advice. This is objective analysis. Do what you will with the shared data points and please go confirm them for yourself. 🙂It doesn't stop there. One of the best indicators which is usually overlooked by newer traders is the SOL/BTC pairing. For all cryptos, there is a BTC pairing because BTC is the reserve currency. If we look at the BTC chart on the Daily time scale, we immediately notice the Symmetrical Triangle that has been forming since November of 2023, tightening up to February of 2025. Given all we know, and Bitcoins recent resurgence and ATH nearly touching 100k, this may be another data point that helps support our hypothesis of a continued uptrend in the price of Solana over time. HOWEVER, the symmetrical triangle has an equal chance of going up or down, so we can only be sure a significant move against BTC is imminent, but not the direction. With this in mind, we need to consider the scenarios where the BTC pairing could go up or down as it is more dynamic than a standard BTC pairing. For example, if BTC were to move up, while SOL remained the same, the BTC pairing would go down, even if the USD value did not change. The opposite is also true. Three things give me a more likely BEAR case for SOL vs BTC: 1. The fib extension has maxed out to the 4.236 level, BUT it also has corrected (slightly), so if this is all that it will correct, the BULL case is actually stronger should it make an upward move.2. If the move is upward, it won't be without resistance. The top line shows the ATH in September 2021. This will be met with resistance before it can make a move up and find new highs.3. Zooming out shows an "A-B" of what would usually be an "A-B-C" correction, if you follow Elliot Wave Theory (which I do). This makes me concerned that a massive move down is likely. Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) is generally useful but I do find it is not 100% foolproof and should only be a data point. Still, the C-wave correction is very common and may lead us back to the support line shown.Finally, if you remember from above the 200-day MA, this also exists on the BTC pairing. In just the last few days we had a drop in the price of SOL. This drop went below the 200-day MA. This could have been scary for many who track the MA, if they didn't look for the other signs. Transparently, I bought here. tripled down actually. Started when it touched the line, and then kept buying until I couldn't. I didn't get the bottom of the move, but I tracked a support line at $210 USD which is where I'd consider stopping out of my position if it went lower than that.For now, we look at this move below the BTC 200-day and notice the following:1, A Falling Wedge pattern which you saw in a previously above.2. The lower white line is also the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle shown above.3. The attempted dump led to a massive bounce with significant green volume candles, pushing it back over the BTC 200-day in just a few hours. This was helped by the ETF announcement (but do you believe in coincidences?) - I love seeing this confluence with reality and wonder if it is intentional.One could argue that lower line below the 200-day was a prime buying opportunity IF the move is upward from here, which the fundamentals and multiple analysis data points I've shared here support. THIS WAS A FAKE OUT THEN BREAK OUT. But will it continue? We are breaking over the 200 day MA again WITH VOLUME which is an excellent sign.So what do you do if you want to get a piece of the action and limit your risk at the same time? Don't just go all in on Solana, because risk is REAL in the markets no matter how much analysis we do. A good strategy is to get a small position, and then try to cost average as the price declines. We saw a retrace of the move, and in beautiful CONFLUENCE, we see a bounce off of the 618 retracement at the exact same line as the falling wedge. Will that hold? Will we go lower? Or is it up from here? Only time can tell... MANAGE YOUR RISK.If you liked this, please let me know! If you have a request for a specific coin or asset, please consider donating some SOL: DXA8JQ5U2GgYcPB8T4UJN8RHgqbxtkL4o9CTBgP7CCbAThanks for reading and be safe out there! This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling. - Shadowfigure