تحلیل تکنیکال Morteza-Emzajerdi درباره نماد BTC : توصیه به فروش (۱۴۰۱/۳/۲۴)

I expect it to hit much lower prices this time. I have mentioned major reasons in some other previous texts.We need to reconsider the way we approach many things in an ever growing Dynamic world. To do so we need to consider Macroeconomics, Market Dynamics, and the Structure of the desired system or Ecosystem. How?1. First, we need to Semantically Map "Each & Every Term" which is used in the system (Taxonomy: 1. Classification & 2. Categorization);2. The Natural Language which is in use most frequently, the Controlled Natural Language (CNL) which is Full & Formal, builds up an Ontology Model.3. Ontoloy formalizes the Nodes, the Edges, and the Importance & the Centrality of Several Major Clusters of Terms which has already been Semantically chosen as the most relevant & the most frequent.4. Now a Graph of the system with Nodes & Edges is forming. This is a Web of the Objects & their related Flows. This is the true Knowledge Web.5. Such knowledge is mainly Unstructed Data. You can find what is Relevat & whether it exists or not. Yet, you need some other type of Data to let you have a clearer picture.6. Here & there you can find many different Technical &/or Fundamental Analyses about the markets. They are mainly rooted in Pragmatism since it is much shorter clearer path to express an opinion. At the same time, you realize very soon that they make mistakes repeatedly. Why?7. Many lack A Comprehensive Omnicient Viewpoint towards what they say.8. Is they any way to Strategically Govern our Longterm Investments? (We need System Dynamics Simulation & some Validation Techniques)9. Is there any way to Tactically Manage our Daily Decisions regarding Trades? (We need Agen-based Modeling here)10. When it comes to Minuscule Time Frames, is there any way to Operate them some better? (We need Discrete-Event Simulations)11. A combination of SD, ABM & DES simulation would best anwer many questions regarding the future.12. SD covers Macro and not detailes, ABM stands at the Meso-level with quite a lot of details, and DES is done regularly and literally can cover indtraday trading strategies (4H, 1H & so forth).13. Major Stocks & Flows Exogenous to the Ecosystem & at the same time Endogenous Components, Elements, Factors & Criteria can be Mathematically Structured. We are Talking about Complex Systems. Isn't Crypto industry one of this kind? :-)14. Many Indicators have made it easy to 'Support' the System of our Decisions like the RSI. Their function can be categorized to map the following major trends (System Behavior):- (Potential) Exponential Growth or Logarithmic Decline;- Goal Seeking;- S-shaped Growth;- Oscillation (delays at pivotal points - major & minor);- Growth with Overshoot;- Overshoot & Collapse;* Then, doing such analysis, one may realize why our modern, world economy is printing more & more fiats. :-(There are some 19K different cryptos in the market. The time has come up!Based on Elliot Waves Analysis (1Y, 6 Months, 3 Months time frames are important time frames) the 5th long term wave has already formed. Based on what Wyckoff theorized about the Turning Points and the Oscillaton behavior of the price, the 1Y time frame is the major time frame we need to consider at the momemnt.The market has grown mature now. At the same time, many have badly learned with galaxic costs and/or loses that what can be the Classic Crypto Bubble? Right? And, what is it actually?The experiences of all Buyers and Small Traders plus what they tell to each other about it, forms a Stock, or an Accumualtion Variable which is an outbreaking Negative picture of what is really going on the field.The next important variable type is of the Rate type. Rate of money printing. If we suppose it a plot, then the supporters, whales or whatever will try to falsly stimulate the herd to re-buy all these useless nothing null assets!But, some countries are reluctant to print out like before. Our earth cannot support more than 8 - 10 billion people with our current resources. Evidence? Compulsary lockdowns for more than two years with COVID Excuse.We are going to experince some local bounces after testing major support zones at 20 & 15K, but lower prices are expected as well.Personally somewhere in between 15 - 20 K bitcoin can bounce back up toward another ATH.They have used the media to stimulate the Agents and conduct their Decision Logic through frequent talks and advertising on TV and so on to prove the whole system benign! But, there remains some serious questions regarding cryptos Practicality, Applicability & the lack of Virtue and Emptyness.Some institutions claimed that they have invested in here. Some renowned people have also claimed that they are keeping their cryptos. They can do that. This time Gold is back. Technically, I await it's correction, but fundamentally the cost for its' mining is of prior improtance.Do not forget to look for True Drivers of Growth of Downturn. Please hit like if you have found the text usefull.This is not a financial advice. We share what we 'think we know' to communicate & learn.