تحلیل تکنیکال Skinwah درباره نماد PAXG : توصیه به خرید (۱۴۰۳/۶/۲۹)

Gold has been in a strong uptrend since its breakout from the accumulation range in December 2023, a move I anticipated and shared with traders (check the link below for my chart call). The recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has injected fresh momentum into gold’s rally, setting the stage for a potential surge towards $2,700 to $3,000 USD in the coming months as part of a new market buy program.However, the long-term picture remains even more bullish, with Fibonacci extension projections suggesting that gold could eventually test $4,000 USD. That said, we must bear in mind that gold’s history suggests periods of reaccumulation between major breakouts, which could last for a few years depending on market sentiment and the overall economic outlook.Fed’s Rate Cut and the Market Buy ProgramThe Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis point rate cut has created the perfect environment for further gains in gold. With interest rates dropping, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold decreases. At the same time, a weaker U.S. dollar, resulting from the rate cut, makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers, further boosting demand.This shift in monetary policy is likely to lead to a market buy program, where investors increase their gold holdings as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and economic uncertainty. With these factors in play, gold looks set to climb higher in the near term.Target Range: $2,700 to $3,000 USD for ReaccumulationIn the short to medium term, I’m projecting gold to reach $2,700 to $3,000 USD, where we may see a reaccumulation phase. Here’s why:Historical Patterns of Accumulation and Reaccumulation: Gold has a history of moving through accumulation and reaccumulation phases before breaking out to new highs. For example, the original accumulation phase for gold lasted about six years, and following that, there was a 3.6-year reaccumulation phase before the next major move upward. Once gold reaches $2,700 to $3,000 USD, I expect a similar reaccumulation phase that could last for a few years before the next breakout.Fibonacci Extension Projections: Based on Fibonacci extensions, there is a strong case for gold reaching $4,000 USD in the longer term. These extensions are often used to identify potential future price targets in trending markets, and the current trend in gold is setting up for a move towards this key level. However, as mentioned, we could see a reaccumulation around the $3,000 USD mark before gold pushes higher.Why Gold Consolidates Before Major BreakoutsGold’s past price movements have demonstrated that the metal typically undergoes periods of consolidation (reaccumulation) before making its next big move. These phases allow the market to absorb supply, shake out weak hands, and build a stronger foundation for the next leg up.At $3,000 USD, gold could enter another one of these phases, consolidating for a few years before breaking out towards $4,000 USD. The length of this consolidation will depend on various factors, including global economic conditions, inflation trends, and how central banks adjust their monetary policies.Outlook: $4,000 USD in the Long TermWhile the immediate focus is on gold’s move to $2,700 to $3,000 USD, the longer-term projection points toward $4,000 USD. This price target is based on Fibonacci extension levels, which have been reliable indicators in trending markets like gold. Achieving this level will depend on how the macroeconomic landscape unfolds over the next few years.Factors such as continued dollar weakness, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks will play key roles in driving demand for gold. However, given the history of accumulation and reaccumulation phases, it’s reasonable to expect a period of consolidation at $3,000 USD before gold embarks on its next major upward move.Factors to Watch Moving ForwardMarket Sentiment: Investor sentiment towards risk assets and safe-haven investments like gold will heavily influence the price trajectory. Increased uncertainty or global economic instability will likely accelerate demand for gold.Fed’s Future Policies: Any further rate cuts or signs of dovish monetary policies could fuel more demand for gold, pushing prices higher.Inflation Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures would enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge, further driving up demand and shortening the reaccumulation phase at $3,000 USD.ConclusionGold’s breakout in December 2023 marked the beginning of a powerful uptrend, and the Fed’s recent rate cut has only added fuel to the fire. I’m projecting that gold will hit $2,700 to $3,000 USD in the near term, where we may see a reaccumulation phase lasting a few years. However, based on Fibonacci extension projections, gold could eventually reach $4,000 USD in the longer term.Keep a close eye on market sentiment and macroeconomic developments, as these will be critical in determining how quickly gold moves through its next phases.— Lord MEDZDisclaimer:This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, Lord MEDZ, and do not guarantee any specific outcome. Investing in gold or any financial instrument involves risks, and readers should consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.