تحلیل تکنیکال Alvin_Kennedy درباره نماد PAXG : توصیه به فروش (۱۴۰۲/۱۲/۲۵)

Gold Technical Analysis: Yesterday, gold bears once again retraced, with the lowest point reaching near 2152, close to Tuesday's retracement low around 2150. Simultaneously, the daily candle closed with a mixed pattern of bullish and bearish signals. Therefore, yesterday's retracement might have signaled two possibilities. Firstly, it could be a secondary bottoming correction for the bulls. However, the retracement amidst bearish candles might also indicate a crucial phase of consolidation for the bulls. Currently, gold support is maintained around the 2150 level. If the bullish scenario unfolds, this level could be a significant turning point for the bulls. Secondly, the bears might be eager to test their strength, especially after the substantial rise in bullish momentum recently, with gains of around $210. However, such a significant energy expenditure might necessitate a period of consolidation or correction, either through retracement or sideways movement, to gather strength again. The magnitude of retracement by the bulls so far isn't favorable for a breakthrough in the upward direction in the near future. Therefore, in the short term, a retracement and downward movement by the bears seem likely, with initial targets around 2140 and secondary targets near the psychological level of 2100. Therefore, in the short term we tend to adopt a bearish strategy until there is a clear outcome. Today, we focus on the previous battleground between 2150 and 2179. Technically, it appears to be a triangular consolidation pattern. With the weekly closing in, the final showdown between bulls and bears is imminent. The pressure point within this triangular formation is around 2170. Hence, we'll initially position ourselves for bearish opportunities around this level. Gold's rebound doesn't intimidate us; in fact, it provides better shorting opportunities. Holding the line at 2180, we remain steadfastly bearish. On the four-hour chart, prices are still close to the moving averages, with successive lower highs indicating a downward slope. The moving averages are also clearly turning downwards. Patience is required for market adjustments. We continue to monitor the 2145-2140 level. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading strategy, Jack suggests prioritizing short positions on rebounds while considering long positions on pullbacks as supplementary. Key resistance levels to watch on the upside are around 2170-2172, while crucial support levels on the downside are around 2150-2140. It's essential for all traders to manage their positions carefully, set strict stop losses.If you have any questions, you can discuss it with meComment: The New York Fed manufacturing index for March in the United States will be released and is expected to be -7.0, compared with -2.4 in February. At 21:15 Hong Kong time on Friday, the U.S. industrial output in February will be released, and the monthly rate is expected to be flat, after falling by 0.1% in January. At 22:00 Hong Kong time on Friday, the initial value of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index in March will be released, and is expected to be 76.9. Investors will also be watching inflation-related data. The initial value of the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectation in March is expected to be 3.1%, compared with the previous value of 3.0%; the initial value of the University of Michigan's 5-10 year inflation expectation in March is expected to be 3.0%, compared with the previous value of 2.9%. A series of economic data released this week performed better than expected, showing a strong labor market and stubborn inflationary pressures. That could be a reason for the Fed to keep interest rates on hold next week, the fifth time in a row. In addition, these data have also suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts in June, thus placing certain restrictions on gold price bulls, causing gold prices to show a volatile and weak adjustment trend recently. Therefore, gold may continue to face corrections in the short term, and investors need to remain vigilant and pay close attention to market dynamics.Comment: The monthly rate of U.S. industrial output in February announced by the Federal Reserve was 0.1%, after the previous January data was revised down to -0.5%. Capacity utilization in January was revised down to 78.3% from 78.5%. Manufacturing output rose 0.8% in February after falling 1.1% in January. Utility output fell 7.5% in February after rising 7.4% in January. Mining output rose 2.2% in February after falling 2.9% in January.Comment: Goldman Sachs: It raised its average gold price forecast in 2024 from $2,090 per ounce to $2,180 per ounce, and will reach $2,300 per ounce by the end of the year.Comment: The 1-hour moving average of gold has started to turn downwards, coupled with downward trendline resistance. Moreover, after a false bullish move on Wednesday, gold has resumed its decline, indicating the absence of a strong one-sided market trend. It's advisable not to chase after further increases in positions. In the American session, we'll see if gold can break below the recent lows of the past two days. If it fails to do so, gold will likely continue its sideways movementComment: Gold technical analysis: Gold showed a volatile trend yesterday. During the European trading session, it once climbed above the 5-day line of 2168 and touched the 2172 line. However, the pressure on the upper short-term trend line failed to be effectively broken, causing the market to fall back and adjust again. From a technical point of view, the main rhythm of gold this week is retracement, and the trend is weak and downward. We are also more inclined to the retracement idea of ​​shorts. Before the bulls make a move in the short term, we still operate based on the short-term idea; Gold Day The K-line at the gold level closed two consecutive negative lines and fell under pressure. The K-line at the gold 15-minute and 30-minute levels fell under pressure. The K-line at the gold 1-hour and 2-hour levels broke and went short. The K-line at the gold 4-hour level held periodic resistance. Pressed down, the gold price has now entered a rather embarrassing situation. The high points at the top are constantly moving downwards, while the low points at the bottom are constantly revising upwards. The amplitude of the shock is getting narrower and narrower. The gold price is bound to choose a direction to break through. Before the gold price returns to 2180 again, the recent trend has been in a relatively weak situation, and the market outlook is more likely to fall below 2150! Currently, gold is moving towards the 2152 area and may further test the 2150 area. The overall trend is in line with expectations, and short-term adjustments have appeared again. On the hourly chart, gold is still oscillating within a triangle range, although it is heading downwards. If it falls below the 2150 support, the market may further extend to the 2145-40 area, or even near 2130 and 2120. However, the current bullish sentiment in the market has not completely dissipated. The short-term market is likely to stabilize near 2150, the lower edge of the triangle on the hourly chart, and wait for the Fed's interest rate decision next week in a volatile manner. If the short-term structural focus shifts downward, it will have a positive impact on the Fed's interest rate decision and operations next week. Taken together, the short-term operation of gold next week suggests that shorting will be the main focus, and callbacks will be supplemented by longs. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2170-2172 resistance level, and the lower short-term focus will be on the 2150-2140 support level.