ucharx

Currently, we are seeing a very exhausted multi-month downtrend. Just like in 2023, it’s very possible that with some sort of positive news injection, TON could start a big explosive move to the upside. Technically, it’s forming a triple-bottom formation and a higher low on the weekly chart. The TON/BTC chart is also showing a potential double bottom. In my opinion, money will start flowing from XRP, SOL, ETH, and BTC into coins like this over the next few months. The plan is simple: I’ll buy a 30% spot position here and DCA every 10% drop until $2. Below $2, I’ll double my longs and go 2x. (I highly doubt it breaks under $2.5, but it’s better to play safe than sorry.)

There are several reasons to believe ETH will get rejected from this area once again: 1_Open interest is extremely high, meaning everyone’s borrowing money to add even more to their long positions. That’s definitely not healthy for a sustained uptrend. We might see a “staircase up, elevator down” type of move soon. 2_This rally is way overextended — we’ve been in a parabolic uptrend with no meaningful correction for the past 47 days. It's been a consistent pattern of higher lows and higher highs. We need at least 2–3 weeks of downtrend to regain strength for another solid move upward. 3_There’s no real fundamental news backing this move. There’s the 401(k) Trump order, but that mostly affects BTC — and even then, it would take ages for any actual money to hit the market (if it ever does). This ETH pump is mostly driven by FOMO — people buying just because others are buying ETFs. Pure hype about ETH hitting some fantasy number in the future. 4_Seasonal weakness matters — I highly doubt ETH can break through major resistance during the summer, especially in a historically bearish month like August. I expect a correction wave to the downside — at least somewhere bellow the $3,350 area( Why 3350? because it's most recent higher low) . We might get a fakeout above $4,100 before that happens. From there, we can reassess the market to see if it’s ready to finally take out that $4,100 resistance or not.I will try my luck and enter some short position after the weekend finishes because sometimes crypto acts crazy during weekends especially when it's near a major point of interest

Being bearish in the stock market—especially after such a big correction and a V-shaped recovery—is definitely not a good idea. Probability and past history are against you. If Trump succeeds in bringing more jobs by tarrifs and reduce government expending as he promises, it could easily keep the uptrend going for the next two years and push past the 10,000 level, just like 2018 and 2020