theroadtoprofit

A co-worker came up today telling me they made a coinbase account and are looking to get into crypto. Give or take a squeeze up to the macro 78.6% retracement around 51k, the top should be in. I don't believe the bear market has concluded, and that this entire move from the FTX crash low has just been a bear market rally of BTC magnitude. The majority of BTC maxis, hodlers, dca investors and fundamental bulls do not count 10k as a possibility, which leads me to conclude that its more likely than all time highs at this point. The news and/or events that cause the downswing are unknown. I do not recommend to short rather to take profits on existing positions with the goal to buy more at a lower price. 10k, 6k, and dare I suggest lower are all possible.

After a meteoric 500% in a matter of weeks off of the low, we are left with an interesting scenario. First it is more than possible that the pump continues, reaches and even blows past the previous relative highs. The second scenario is a bit more interesting. With such a fast pump, it is possible and likely that people have become excited and begun buying more. A crash at this point is extremely interesting, as this would destroy the morale of long term holders as well as new buyers. In my eyes, this would be the buying opportunity of a century if and only if there is to be a recovery attempt of some kind. If we were to breach the lows there is nearly a 2000% price increase to get back to the highs. This is not even considering the scenario of price breaking the highs. It would probably take some sort of market wide FUD to trigger such a crash, but this is nothing out of the ordinary for Crypto. Just my two cents.

Exploring the possibility of a potential 50+% drop. Although not guaranteed, I can’t help but see extreme value in this scenario. The final blow would bring about a psychological state of absolute despair across the uneducated many of market participants. Although it would feel extremely wrong after a series of bearish candles breaching all time lows, I believe that is actually the lowest possible risk time to buy if this coin is to ever stage any sort of retracement let alone recovery.

The universe works in mysterious ways.. Greater than 30:1 RR on the basis of a short lived but violent “alt season” Many alt coins are at all time lows. Levels that everyone was sure would never be seen within our lifetimes have been reached. Yet everyone has lost hope. Now that everyone is sure projects are dead…. Luna however is unique. Never have I witnessed a crash in value so detrimental that millions were turned into pennies. Now I’m not going to go conspiracy and suggest that they burn trillions of tokens and reestablish the value or something crazy, but a 2,3,400% pump would just be a minor retracement even if bearish PA is to continue. I may be hopeful, but hope at a time when most feel despair looks like insanity, or shall I say, Lunacy :)

See previous analysis.

The mysterious case Fraud Scam Scandal But why is it not 0? There seems to be a floor in place, meaning some entity is counteracting any sell pressure keeping the price relatively stable over the past few weeks. It looks to me like the floor is in place, and its only a matter of time before selling pressure dies out and leaves massive opportunity for those willing to buy something that we all KNOW is dead. The risk is clear, another 99% drop is always possible. Only risk what you’re willing to lose. On the other hand, the fact that price is sustaining and has reached crucial pullback levels leads me to believe the next big move will be to the upside. Best of luck to all

I believe we are in a prolonged, multi-asset bear market. With that said we have not had a significant retracement for months. We are overdue both in time and price. A break of the recent lows will do the following: 1. Stop out any currently accumulating bullish positions with stop losses 2. Trigger entries for short sellers expecting a larger downside move (creating liquidity above for buyers) 3. Increase overall fear, making it difficult for retail to buy To me it looks like a perfect storm for price to catapult up to .60+ at which point I would highly recommend taking profits as the aforementioned bear market has not yet ended.

All commentary on chart. Sentiment + positioning analysis