thefluffyones

Based on price action history BTC may be looking at a 830k - 960k market top projection. However, if we get a shortened market cycle then the lower projection is 240k to 270k. You can see the likely short market top from FTX in Nov 2022 compared to the previous cycles tops shown with the yellow and pink lines.In the short term - - IMO Global M2 shows we're just getting started. - NUPL shows we're past mid-top rangeNFA. Cheers!

In this analysis, we will compare the Global Liquidity Cycles with Bitcoin Cycles on the weekly timeframe. The top pane shows the Bitcoin weekly price, while the bottom panes showcases Global Liquidity and Bitcoin cycles. Bitcoin tops (the bottom pane) are highlighted in red with a level of 75+ and the bottoms are highlighted in green with a level of 15 or lower. In the middle pane (second up from bottom), we can see the global liquidity cycles. The tops are shown with values of 90+ and the bottoms are shown with a value of 30 or less. The vertical gray lines help to illustrate how the global liquidity cycles align with the Bitcoin cycles. The bottom two panes include projections into the future, with values projected with a 4-year and 8-year offset. This analysis allows us to understand the projected cycles for the current market top, with the middle of 2025 as the market top for both the global liquidity and bitcoin. It's fascinating (and a blessing) that Bitcoin aligns so well with global liquidity, enabling investors with knowledge of these high-level cycles to better time the market.

In this idea we'll have a look at the history of BTCUSD on a daily timeframe using value maps based on-chain balanced price and market data. Additionally, we'll take a look at BTCUSD on a daily timeframe using market price value oscillator. The chart below shows a value map that takes into account the balanced BTC on-chain price and projects that onto a custom value map (grid) which shows both local and market tops/bottoms.The chart below shows a value map based on pure market data and time which shows two bands. The top band shown in pink/blue shows market tops and the bottom band in yellow and orange showing market bottoms.Below is both the on-chain value map and the market value map bands together which provides a very clear picture of both historic market cycles and the existing market progress with $32,000 being a key resistance level. Next we'll have a look at a custom market price value oscillator that is designed to show the best purchase opportunities in green, secondary good purchase opportunities in blue, best shorting opportunities in purple and market tops in red.

BTCUSD Balanced Price (Tops & Bottoms) with Market Ribbon BTCUSD Balanced Price (Tops & Bottoms) with Market Ribbon The gradient ribbon is calculated based on the BTCUSD market index factoring in time with bottom orange and maroon lines showcasing the market bottoms. On top of the ribbon is the adjusted balanced price (tops & bottoms) calculated from BTCUSD on-chain data. Below we have the same BTCUSD adjusted balanced price (tops & bottoms) on top of a custom adjusted realized price grid using on-chain data. BTCUSD cyclical nature is clearly on display and what a blessing it is!

This idea is from an experimental historic indicator I'm working on which uses market price history to display a new type of crypto ribbon. Found some interesting patterns that I thought a few investors may find interesting.2021 Market Cycle Pattern2017 Market Cycle Pattern2013 Market Cycle Pattern2011 Market Cycle PatternCheers!

ETH Cycle Update ETHUSD 20 Weekly EMA Now on Top ETHUSD Last 20 Weekly EMA on Top was June 2020 After June 2020 ETHUSD used the ETHUSD 15 Weekly as Support ETHUSD is now testing the upper BB and KC on Weekly ETHUSD is now testing the middle lower Green zone on Weekly from ETH Log Curve ETHUSD Weekly Support Resistance Levels If ETHUSD can break the $2028 level, it will likely test the $2084 or $2118 levels. ETHUSD 4 Month Cycle Perspective Confirmed in Green. Price may now use Green cycle level as support. ETHUSD 4M Cycle Levels shown in chart with Red, Yellow and Green dots. ETHUSD Weekly Adjusted Realized Price Scale ETHUSD Weekly Adjusted Realized Price May Now be using Level 5 (from bottom) as Support ETHUSD 3 Weekly TTM Showing Similarities to June/July of 2020 ETH Monthly DB CF Pro Showing $2120 is a Reasonable Possibility Before Months End (for up side) and $1800 still possible for the monthly downside

BTC Cycles On-Chain & Market In this multi-timeframe chart we look at the current BTCUSD market cycle compared to the previous cycles using both on-chain and market data. On the main pane is BTCUSD on the weekly scale. On top of the price is a on-chain grid of the BTCUSD realized price multiplied. The solid silver bottom grid line is the BTCUSD realized price with the solid red line on top of the grid being 20x of the BTCUSD realized price. On the price scale you will notice the on-chain BTCUSD realized price at 20x level successfully shows peak oversold cycle periods. An investor could use this metric as a market top selling point when the price action is above the solid red line and then crosses under. Below the price pane is two additional panes showing custom market cycle RSI values. The first pane shows my DB ZPS RSI indicator set to 4 month timeframe with a length value of 2. The second pane lowest on the chart panel shows a custom zero lag smoothed RSI output for the on-chain realized price. The investor will notice both RSI panes are very similar. Take note that the top RSI pane is based purely on market data while the second (lower) RSI value is based on-chain realized price. The curves of both RSI panes act as confirmation to each other of the cycle of BTCUSD from the 4 month level. Both RSI panes use a custom scale with oversold being at 95 plus and undersold at 20 or less. The RSI panes also use a color indicator that is based on a zero lag smoothing of the core value to show no lag changes. Maroon indicates down pressure, blue indicates change in direction building, green indicates upward pressure, orange indicates change in direction building (top forming). An investor could use these RSI values to know when the market top will happen within a 4 month period by looking for a cross under 95 value (any color). The most ideal time to buy for an investor would be when the RSI value is green in color with a less than or equal to 20 in value. The aim of sharing this high level BTCUSD market cycle idea is to give investors an idea of the current and historical market cycles of BTCUSD. If these metrics are correct, we are in the start of a strong bull cycle.

ETH Cycles On-Chain & Market In this multi-timeframe chart we look at the current ETHUSD market cycle compared to the previous cycles using both on-chain and market data. On the main pane is ETHUSD on the weekly scale. On top of the price is a on-chain grid of the ETHUSD realized price multiplied. The solid silver bottom grid line is the ETHUSD realized price with the solid red line on top of the grid being 20x of the ETHUSD realized price. In addition to the grid you have a secondary visual indicator of the market cycle with three different zones displayed. Red zone indicates start of bear cycle. The yellow zone indicates end of bear cycle and very early bull cycle. The green zone indicates full bull cycle. On the price scale you will notice the on-chain ETHUSD realized price at 20x level successfully shows peak oversold cycle periods. An investor could use this metric as a market top selling point when the price action is above the solid red line and then crosses under. When reaching the red zone the investor can know the end of the bull cycle is extremely near. Below the price pane is two additional panes showing custom market cycle RSI values. The first pane shows my DB ZPS RSI indicator set to 4 month timeframe with a length value of 2. The second pane lowest on the chart panel shows a custom zero lag smoothed RSI output for the on-chain realized price. The investor will notice both RSI panes are very similar. Take note that the top RSI pane is based purely on market data while the second (lower) RSI value is based on-chain realized price. The curves of both RSI panes act as confirmation to each other of the cycle of ETHUSD from the 4 month level. Both RSI panes use a custom scale with oversold being at 95 plus and undersold at 5 or less. The RSI panes also use a color indicator that is based on a zero lag smoothing of the core value to show no lag changes. Maroon indicates down pressure, blue indicates change in direction building, green indicates upward pressure, orange indicates change in direction building (top forming). An investor could use these RSI values to know when the market top will happen within a 4 month period by looking for a cross under 95 value and a maroon color. The most ideal time to buy for an investor would be when the RSI value is green in color with a less than 5 value or a cross over 5 green value. The aim of sharing this high level ETHUSD market cycle idea is to give investors an idea of the current and historical market cycles of ETHUSD. If these metrics are correct, we are in the start of a strong bull cycle.

Describing BTC Cycles with DB ZEMA & DB ZPS RSI In this brief idea, I'd like to share how to describe BTCUSD cycles on the quarterly timeframe using two new indicators DB ZEMA and DB ZSP RSI. The settings for these indicators in this idea are both length 2, quarterly timeframe, and no repaint unchecked. Checking no-repaint produces a similar chart with no-repaint and values considered lock on bar OPEN. In the chart image below we can see the bull cycles highlighted in blue based on the review of the DB ZEMA and DB ZPS RSI indicators. The chart image below is the DB ZEMA indicator with a length of 2 showing market tops (post May 2013) when the indicator color turns from green to red or when the silver line crosses over the colored line. Market bottoms are displayed when the value crosses below zero and then the silver line crosses over the colored line indicated by a green color. The chart image below is the DB ZPS RSI indicator with a length of 2 showing market tops (post May 2013) when the indicator reaches a 90+ level a market top is close. When the indicator turns maroon the market top has been detected. Market bottoms are described when the line turns green and an upward value happens or when the value drops below 15. Using these indicators on the Weekly timeframe with a length of 10 can also show local top and bottoms. In short, if these indicators correctly describe BTCUSD on the quarterly timeframe. Then we have already entered into the next bull cycle high-timeframe and these indicators can be used to trace overall market cycles without repainting.

BTC Cycles Revealed? Are the BTC cycles revealed? In this weekly BTC chart we have a look at the history of BTC since 2012 from a large scale using a custom indicator that was designed to calculate price change over time that does not repaint. Market tops are highlighted with red vertical lines based on the bottom indicator showing cross over the light brown line over the dark brown. Market bottoms or start of accumulation are highlighted with green vertical lines based on the bottom indicator dark brown line cross under zero. Start of bull market are highlighted with yellow vertical lines based on the bottom indicator dark brown crossing over zero. Again the bottom indicator is designed to not repaint using only calculations based on previous bars. With the latest start of the new quarter we can now see the dark brown line has cross over zero. Let the bull market begin. I welcome your thoughts.