quantguy

Bitcoin has picked up, but is still bounded by $16.8K or so. We appear to be attempting to form a bull wedge pattern. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, which could indicate a divergence, and suggest a potential breakout. The FTX news still weighs on the entire crypto market, so we are not hopeful of a significant bull rally. However a breakout could easily test $17.6K. If things turn south then $15.6K should provide support.

Litecoin cratered with the rest of the crypto market but has not remained downtrodden. It has since pivoted from lows in the high $40's, and blasted through $55.84 to $61.75. The $60's did little to hold Litecoin back, and we are currently pressing further to $64.37. The Kovach OBV has edged up significantly, suggesting that confidence in this coin is truly high (due to the Moneygram news) and not just volatility. If we break through $64.37, then we could test $66.94 again. If not, expect support in the low $60's, then there is a vacuum zone down to $55.84.

Ethereum has tumbled to the $1100's, but the CPI data on Thursday benefitted all risk-on assets. After that data was released, we made a run for higher levels in the $1300's. We were unable to sustain the $1300's and immediately rejected them. Currently, we are finding support just above $1235, a strong level that has held before. Our next target is $1341 if we can rally. If $1235 gives, then we should have support in the $1100's.

Bitcoin plummeted earlier this week off news that major exchange FTX is essentially insolvent. Binance offered to bail them out, but later pulled the deal, exacerbating the situation. Bitcoin tumbled past our level at $17.6K, deep into the $15K's before we pivoted back to $17.6K, after CPI came out softer than expected suggesting that the Fed may pivot in its hawkish rhetoric. Risk-on assets have rallied but the FTX debacle still weighs on crypto. Bitcoin is still bounded from above by $17.6K, and the Kovach OBV has barely inched up. We have had to reference levels we haven't considered in years to get the next level of support down at $15.1K.

Crypto has had a wild ride the last 24 hours, and Litecoin is not an exception. First, the FTX situation sent LTC tumbling from highs in the $70's, all the way down to the origin of the rally in the low $50's. We were able to puncture $50.64, a relative low, and strong level of support and dive into the $40's. However CPI data saved the day for crypto and other risk-on assets when it came in softer than expected, sending Litecoin flying back to the $50's. Currently we are at the edge of the $60 handle, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. If we are able to break into the $60's, then $61.75 is the next target. If we reject current levels, then $55.84 should provide support.

Ethereum fell to our level at $1100 as the FTX situation worsened with Binance pulling out of the deal. We hit our support level at $1100 exactly, and saw a nice pivot there. This morning, at 8:30AM EST, US inflation data came out softer than expected, causing all risk-on markets to rally as this means the Fed is expected to ease their hawkish rhetoric for the first time in months. Ethereum blew through several levels above, including $1235 and $1288. But $1341 is still a barrier. It is likely that we will range about these levels for now, until the market fully prices in CPI data. If we retrace, the $1200's should provide support.

Bitcoin has exhibited some of the most volatile swings in the past 24 hours as it has in the entire time we've been following it. First, the FTX debacle worsened as Binance reportedly pulled out of their deal to by the insolvent company. This sent BTC to yearly lows, cracking our absolute lower bound at $17.6K. But we didn't stop there. Bitcoin continued to sell off, careening through the $16K handle, finally finding support in the $15K's. We saw levels displayed on the chart we hadn't seen in years. We finally found support just above our level at $15.1K. Just now (at 8:30 AM EST), US inflation data came out weaker than expected, suggesting that the Fed may finally be able to ease their hawkish stance. This fueled a rally in all risk-on assets, including cryptos. Bitcoin rallied, pivoting off lows, and made an attempt at $17.6K from below. We appear to be meeting prohibitive resistance here, and expect BTC to range just below this level for the time being. If we are able to break through, then $18.6K should provide resistance.

Litecoin has compeletely retraced all gains from the Moneygram news. We blasted through the $50's, reaching as high as the $70's, before the FTX news slammed crypto markets. Liquidity and solvency issues came to light as Binance announced it was buying non-US divisions of another major crypto broker, FTX. Litecoin has subsequently retraced all gains, plummeting back to our level at $55.84. We are currently finding support at this level, but another selloff could take us deeper into the $50's, with support at $51.92 or $50.64 to provide a floor for now.

Ethereum has plummeted from highs after forming a double top at $1653. This follows insolvency and illiquidity fears as Binance has offered to rescue the non-US divisions of FTX, another major crypto broker. Most of the majors have smashed through significant lows, and Ethereum has erased all monthly gains and then some, smashing through the $1200 handle as it shed more than 25%. We made it as low as the $1100's before a violent whipsaw established a low (for now). We expect $1100 to hold for the time being, but another selloff could take us closer to the $1K barrier. We will have to break through $1235 before attempting higher levels.

Bitcoin has melted down, as the FTX platform faces insolvency issues . Binance came to the rescue, offering to rescue non-US divisions of the company. This follows a bank run in FTX's token, FTT, after Binance sold over $1B of the token, causing a 'bank run' which impacted the entire crypto market. The whole ordeal spurred worries of liquidity and solvency issues in crypto. Major cryptocurrencies plummeted as did the stock of any major platform that sells crypto (e.g. Coinbase and Robinhood). Bitcoin was edging higher, making meager gains. It was starting to look like it was able to hold the $20K's, but after the news it plummeted down to the $18K's, which we anticipated as a floor. This was not the end of the move, as the selloff bled into the APAC session. We have now breached our (yearly) low of $17.6K, which we anticipated to hold as a floor. We are currently hovering below this level at $17.5K or so. If we can manage to pivot, watch for Bitcoin to claw itself back to $18.6K, where we may equilibrate as the markets digest the news.