ponzialchemist
@t_ponzialchemist
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ponzialchemist
ponzialchemist
Looking for sweep of ATH's by end of July before a deep correction to low 40k's as wave 4.
ponzialchemist
I was expecting Gold to rally until year-end and top around ~2800 but the hard fib reaction @ ~2500 dropping ~5% and also the look of silver chart, along with momentum divergences argues for a major top right here. At the least, a good level to empty your bags here, if not outright short. GOLDComment:Comment: But there is still a lack of conviction to go outright short because the 10Y still has a look of a wave 4 correction in progress which leaves a potential for another rally later this year.
ponzialchemist
From the wave character, looks like X wave is topping for another sharp leg down to sweep off the lows before making a new ATH. Good R/R.Comment: Played out. Seeing the continuation this way...
ponzialchemist
ponzialchemist
BTC - Month of June Here is a Wyckoff distribution pattern I am seeing and suggest two potential paths before the eventual downturn: Path 1 - No HH but a weak LPSY Path 2 - HH to hit .5 fib More inclined to Path 1 considering the range is tilted downwards and also the leeway in momentum divergences.
ponzialchemist
ponzialchemist
If you ask me how sure I am about this? I would first say it's a wrong question to ask in the field of speculation. But hear this, this is as good as it can get considering the macrocycle environment we are in. Will be waiting to load bags below 10k, because I am a long-term believer in bitcoin. Dollar regime shift is ongoing, be patient.PS: Running flats are extremely rare, and so chances of this busting even lower is more likely.*** As always, not a straight path down.To all the bulls and bears - Don't be one. On Tv, we should just aim to be rational TA's to the best of our knowledge and share ideas accordingly. If I happen to see any direction changes in HTF, I will be happy to change my plan and be long. Just don't see it here. After all, it's much easier to make money when it is trending up. Cheers!
ponzialchemist
5 wave correction. Should see ~42k with divergences.Stock futures putting downward pressure might be better off waiting for it to resolve.Tape looks weak. Will hold off until it's clearer.Retest of lows seems more likely now before a bounce.
ponzialchemist
Nothing much to say. LTF divergence. Correction over the weekend.From the big picture analysis, I deduce this to be the 5th wave of the 3rd wave down to a target of 37k. More inclined to this target before bouncing for the 4th wave and then the final capitulation.Will hold on to this, unless I see a reaction near the earlier target.
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