play_with_the_whales

I expect a long squeeze Sunday / Monday, ideal long entry 62.755 - 62350, from there bullish continuation into the week.Invalidation: 4h close below the former range high at 61.700.Almost reached the target but not there yet, I expect more downside today. If pa breaks 62350 it must bounce at the previous range high around 61.700 as a bullish retest.Target hit, trade closed. Now let's closely monitor pa if we get the bounce or go one step lower to ~61.7k.

“History doesn't repeat itself, but It often rhymes.” (Mark Twain)IF this is the top, BTC perfectly hit the 0.618 fibonacci level again and if this is not immediately triggering a déjà-vu you probably simply weren't around back then ;)As mentioned in my previous update already I still think that Blackrock and co. will drive the price down to allow their customers cheaper entries, using the halving narrative from there into the next bullrun 2024/25. If it plays out that way and BTC will touch the lower longterm channel trendline be fast, I expect a rocket bounce around 30k, maybe with wicks below if some negative news event timely kicks in.Let me know what you think in the comments, thanks a lot for your time.

The closer we get to a spot bitcoin ETF approval (~2nd to 10th of January 2024) the more I think it will play out as a crypto typical "sell the news" event. I kind of think it's priced in already and the latest rally was 90% driven by this narrative. Please don't get me wrong, I'm sure BTC-ETFs will have a positive impact on price for all the obvious reasons, but not immediately on approval but ~2 months later when the ETFs will actually be available.And now imagine you are one of the Blackrock guys who want to sell their brand new btc ETF to large customers, wouldn't it be beautiful, if you could offer them BTC at a great price? What I'm preparing for is this: Sell the news event in early January 2024 --> price down to the green buying area (30k - 25k) and very maybe (though unlikely) even wicks down below closer to 20k. Sideways into the halving ~18th of April 2024. Next bull run 24/25 from there.(Please note: the whole idea of a "sell the news" event around the ETF approval obviously only makes sense as long as BTC stays at least above 40k. If it sells off significantly (35-30k) before it might as well play out exactly the other way round and we'll see some ETF approval rally in January.)

Let's make this really simple: Based on the weekly range the range low is at 25.937$ and #btc currently is trading below. Bulls need a daily close above that line in the sand otherwise it would increasingly look like a bearish retest pointing south.Weekly supports at 24.316$, 21.830$ and 19.291$. Monthly support at 23.300$.There's strong confluence around that level with a long standing trendline I expect not to be broken without fundamentally negative news. My current best guess: 1. Back up into the range making this a deviation. 2. Local top around range mid-point. 3. Sideways and bleeding out from there. 4. Strong bounce around monthly support / trendline.So far #btc is behaving well, 1. achieved, now let's see how far this will go up, target is mid of the trading range (~28.000 - 28.200$).2. achieved as well, as described above 4 weeks ago, I'm expecting the range mid point to be the local top now. Let's see what #btc has in store...

Might as well be nothing, just indicators needing to adjust after the recent drop (17th of August). But I'm getting a little nervous 'cause it's taking longer than I expected initially so I thought I'll quickly share it here. IF BTC really resolves to the upside (see my bearish bias in the last update) targets would be 27k and mid range at 28.139$.

I'm expecting some kind of crash event before the 4th halving (currently expected for the 22nd of April 2024), similar to what we have seen back in 2020 with the 'covid crash' 9th of March. The market is weak, good news don't have a lasting effect and I expect BTC to leave the current trading range (~6 months) downwards sooner than later. I still think the bottom of the cycle is in (~15.500$) so where is my current HT buying zone? Two strong support levels on 21.830$ - 19.291$, therefore the closer BTC moves towards 20k $, the more I'll buy, *hoping* for peaks down to 17.560$. In case BTC breaks below 15.500$ (current bottom imo) I'll shit my pants because it would invalid my meta idea of where the market is moving, but will sell house and horses at that point. I think it's highly unlikely we'll ever see those levels again except some kind of global catalyst event like a Russian tactical nuke in Ukraine or a similar catastrophic disruption.Inflow of BTC to centralized exchanges increased over the last weeks which might be another hint that BTC will correct soon: tradingview.com/news/zycrypto:db42f7f3c094b:0-bitcoin-balance-on-exchanges-increases-is-btc-primed-for-a-major-down-move/