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XAUUSD is forming a bearish New Day Opening Gap on the daily chart, activating the last Thursday pennant of a continuation of the recent downtrend. I explained this setup in my previous published on XAUUSD. XAUUSD that you can review on the link below. Technical Setup: On the Daily chart you can see how the price action took the liquidity above the historical previous Daily fractal High during the Manipulation phase on last Friday. The Asian session is now in the Distribution phase. Key Levels to Watch: The today's NDOG may be filled or not. To the downside 2645, 2625, and 2606 are price levels to watch on the way to the current 2604 Lower Low. Downside Breakout: A breakdown below would confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside targets around $2,585, $2,578 then $2,560.Erratum The current price action suggests the Asian session to be the Manipulation step after the Friday's accumulation step. Here's a chart to illustrateHere's a H4 chart with the Comprehensive market Analyzer to assist with an Short level at 2661.

XAUUSD XAUUSD is forming a bearish pennant flag on the daily chart, signaling a potential continuation of the recent downtrend. However, with US inflation data due to be released later today, volatility could increase, offering a possible pullback before resuming the broader trend. Inflation data often affects gold as it impacts interest rate expectations, and this release could be pivotal in determining the next significant move. Technical Setup: The last seven daily candles, particularly the last two, suggest consolidation after a downtrend, forming a classic pennant pattern. This pattern typically signals continuation in the direction of the prior trend, which has been bearish. The price action shows signs of accumulation, but this could transition into distribution if sellers regain control. Key Levels to Watch: Downside Breakout: A breakdown below would confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside targets around $2,585, $2,578 then $2,560. Upside Pullback: If the inflation data is more dovish, indicating easing price pressures, we could see a temporary relief rally. A break above $2,620 would signal this, with the next resistance at $2,640. Impact of US Inflation Data: Cooling Inflation: If the data shows signs of cooling inflation, gold could experience a brief relief rally. This would reduce pressure from rising interest rates and might provide a short-term boost to the upside, allowing for a pullback. Higher Inflation: If inflation remains sticky or exceeds expectations, it could solidify the bearish pennant's direction, with real yields pushing higher and further weakening gold's appeal.

As this trading week opens, XAUUSD XAUUSD presents a clear example of one of the Smart Money Techniques (SMT): Divergence. By observing the recent price action, we can identify an interesting shift in the market structure. After the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, XAUUSD surged to the 2670 level before reversing sharply. Normally, after forming a lower high like this, price action should create a new lower low, continuing the bearish trend. However, instead of following through, the descent paused around 2632, creating a new low but without the expected momentum to break further downwards. This divergence from the expected bearish structure (a typical zigzag formation) suggests that sellers may be losing control, and the market could be entering an accumulation phase. The failure to make a significant lower low hints at potential buyer interest emerging at the current levels. Key Levels to Watch: 1. 2632 Support Level: This level marks the recent lower low where divergence was spotted. If the price holds above this level, it strengthens the case for accumulation. 2. 2670 Resistance Level: The most recent lower high. A break above this could confirm the upside reversal and signal the start of a new bullish trend. 3. 2700-2710 Region: This zone could act as the next significant resistance if the price pushes higher, representing a key psychological barrier. Given the divergence and the possible accumulation phase, this setup supports the idea of an upcoming bullish reversal. Traders should closely monitor price behavior at these key levels to confirm the direction of the next significant move.Initiated a long position after an equal low was formed at the daily low of 2644I am now looking for a cross over my initial position as the strong selling pressure is grabbing liquidityI understand that it's a counterintuitive trade, which makes it a bit difficult to grasp. Price action is now over 2654.6 after seeking liquidity down to 2640 earlier today, which is why I mentioned it.Price action needs to cross over 2656 price area in a stop hunt strategy that can create more upside moves.

XAUUSD Gold (USD) appears to be preparing for a continuation of its bearish trend, as it seeks to gather sufficient liquidity to trigger the next leg of its zigzag decline. In a previous accurate analysis (see the link below), I discussed the mechanics of this zigzag pattern in relation to Gold USD. It seems that Gold USD is still working to attract more liquidity before making its next move. On Thursday, price action fell short of breaking the 2663 level, but it found strong support around 2655, forming an equal low at today’s market open. I expect a new upward swing, though it likely won’t lead to a major trend reversal. Instead, this movement could gain enough momentum to reach the 2600-2605 range. For this scenario to unfold, a daily high just below 2673 could be key. Key Points to Watch: Watch the 2663 level closely for a break. If price breaks above it, there could be a short-term bullish move. The 2655 support needs to hold for the upward swing to occur as expected. If it breaks, we might see a faster continuation to the downside without the expected upward swing. If price fails to gain momentum toward 2673, the bearish scenario could materialize faster than anticipated. The retracement levels are displayed in this chart thanks to the Zigzag Orderblock Retracement indicator: Join us for more information about our analysisI haven't fully explained the trading setup I'm using to trade inducement levels. My strategy is similar to Beat the Market Makers, and while I'm currently positioned on the long side, my goal is to shift to short. Market makers are inducing FOMO reactions with sharp pullbacks and spikes, using volatile price action to obscure their targets. As a result, I've built a cash buffer from a long position at 2655 to help cushion my likely early short entries. I am banking in my healthy profit here at 2666 as it's probably the first BuyStop price levelBased on the explanation about inducement levels, 2672 becomes a speculative reversal price by default. The area of interest for a reversal begins just above, near the top replacement level around 2669. We're almost there:The price weakness isn't matching a dump but a Pump as market participants are apparently forecasting that the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will underperform relative to expectations. As a result gold prices could see a significant rise.

GOLD Gold USD dropped steeply from an All time High to the 2628 on Monday. Many traders are betting on getting more on the way to further down but let's keep in mind something about market movements. A bearish zigzag is formed by 3 steps repeating themselves: Impulse - Correction - Continuation with Break of Structure But in the yesterday price action one critical movement is missing: A correction ( an upside pullback in this case) above a major previous High (Lower High) to make a BuyStop, grab liquidity, and then finally to go further down below 2628. In this Gold USD chart no continuation but rather a single big downsided impulse (Red arrow in the chart) Consequently I am looking forward seeing a correction (pullback) to the upside to reach a price above a previous Major Lower High as illustrated with a Green Arrow in the chart. The retracement levels are displayed in this chart thanks to the Zigzag Orderblock Retracement indicator: Join us for more informationErratum The Day Low was actually 2624.74 as displayed by the technical Zigzag Orderblock Retracement indicator. It's worth mentioning that this technical correction again the major trend isn't a trend reversion!Long now in healthy profit as price action is climbing the previous minor Higher Lows.Price action is currently attempting to breakout over the bearish channel.Price action met a resistance in the 2645 area. Next step at 2650 as displayed in the chart above.Oops there's an FVG with an encroachment around 2646.5 that needs to be mitigate.I'm going to wait for 2654 as a main target, and will be willing to exit over this level. Many BuyStops are going to be created to trap liquidity. Anyway I already enjoyed my journey:)2656 will be good enoughTechnically speaking 2666 was my calculation as the ideal price level. I'm going to see if price action manage to reach this price to consider the continuation in the bearish main trend.Well 2666 reached time to switch the trade direction

XAUUSD Current market structure: A strong bounce from the 2494-2495 support zone on September 5th. A bullish breakout above the 2505-2506 resistance area. Price reached a high of 2523, marking a significant upper target. A retracement to test the previous resistance (2505-2506) as new support. Formation of a new higher high, indicating continued bullish momentum. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 2505-2506 (previous resistance now acting as support) Secondary Support: 2494-2495 (the bounce area from September 5th) Resistance: 2523 (recent high) Potential Resistance: 2530-2535 (based on previous price action and round number psychology) Analysis for Later Today: Bullish Scenario (most likely) If the 2505-2506 support holds, we might see a continuation of the uptrend. The next target could be retesting the recent high of 2524. A break above 2524 could lead to further gains, potentially targeting the 2530-2535 range. Look for bullish candlestick patterns on the M15 timeframe for entry signals. Consolidation Scenario: Given the recent strong move, and due to weekly position closures and reduced liquidity., the price might consolidate between 2505-2506 and 2524. This could form a flag or pennant pattern, which might precede another strong directional move. The consolidation phase may precede the new upper target as an accumulation step as shown in this XAUUSD M15 chart where the price is crossing under the uptrend trend line. Chart prepared with the Comprehensive Market Analyzer indicator Pine Script®2518 resistance level just rejected the price. A new position on breakout can make sense.Waiting for a more convincing breakout of the 2518 levelNice Sell side liquidity sweep through 2518. Let's go

XAUUSD Bullish Scenario (60% Probability): Wait for Pullback and Confirmation: Wait for the price to pull back to the 2320 USD support level or lower. Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar) at or near the 2320 USD support level. Enter a long position on a confirmed pullback to 2320 USD with bullish confirmation. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly below the 2320 USD support level to limit potential losses (e.g., 2318 USD). Targets: First Target: 2330 USD (immediate resistance level). Second Target: 2340 USD (key resistance level). Further Target: 2350 USD (additional resistance level). Bearish Scenario (40% Probability): Wait for Breakdown and Confirmation: If the price breaks below 2320 USD, wait for it to pull back to this level and fail to hold. Look for bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) at or near the 2320 USD level, confirmed by increasing volume. Entry Point: Enter a short position if the price breaks below 2320 USD and fails to hold on the retest. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above the 2330 USD resistance level to limit potential losses (e.g., 2332 USD). Targets: First Target: 2310 USD (next support level). Second Target: 2300 USD (additional support level). Further Target: 2272 USD (main target for bearish scenario). Immediate Action Plan: If Bullish Pullback is Confirmed at 2320 USD: Probability: 60% Enter a long position. Set first target at 2330 USD and second target at 2340 USD. Consider further target at 2350 USD. If Bearish Breakdown is Confirmed Below 2320 USD: Probability: 40% Enter a short position. Set first target at 2310 USD and second target at 2300 USD. Consider further target at 2272 USD.

Following my successful today's trade on XAUUSD , price action overpassed the bottom of the zigzag structure. I am expecting a limited pullback to the 2329 price area before going further southFinally price action managed to pullback to the 2336-2237 resistance area I used earlier today. Now waiting to revisit the Daily low in the 2324 areaPositive stop loss was triggered. Gold USD price action still hovering much below my last bearish breakout area of 2356-2357 suggesting a pendant new bearish impulse. If the upward trend persists I'm going to wait for an attempt in the 2351-2353 price zone to consider a new entry. Otherwise I'll enter earlier.

XAUUSD The FED minutes hawkish tone is currently pushing negatively on the XAU/USD underlying bullish momentum. A renew dig under the 2340 support level is on the way . That wave started by a breakout at 2357 to reach potentially a first negative target at 2331. It's now to early to place a bullish bet as a 2324 second negative target could be reached later today. A clear decisive break above 2343 resistance level can enable further positive upsides.After a brief ping of the 2339.5 resistance price line, price action succeeded to dive beyond our first 2332 target to open the door for achieving our second negative target at 2324Despite a new rebound from my 2321 first negative target to tag the 2336 resistance price line I'm adding a new short entry in a bet to exit in the 2324-2325 price areaWe're going to get to the second negative target. Good job done

XAUUSD Monday opening session is hovering around the 2358 price level. As no bullish attempts to be seen so far, it opens the door for a deeper pullback that can ping the 2352 before a new upside target in the 2390 price area. A stable breakout of 2364 resistance will negate this pullback.Pullback is going further south to reach 2342 with an expected bounce back to the 2359 price level. Only a breakout above may bring a stable Long within the current market correction context :(The Daily low in the 2339 mark may create a consolidation range from now between 2346 and 2352 before getting able to go more up.