nanopowered

The last three times the premium on the bitcoin price on Coinbase was $40 higher than on Binance, the price increased afterward. Coinbase represents smart money (people like Saylor buys there) while Binance represents dumb money.

Is gold cheap relative to oil? Divide gold by oil to do a ration Then 1 month candle, bollinger bands with a length of 80

Formation of a bear flag on BTCUSD Price touched the top of the flag, time to short

Gold has built a symetric triangle for months, with volume lowering. The triangle has just been broken out with a huge volume. Target price is the height of triangle at the beginning reported on the break out point. Market is risk off, so the classic choices are bonds and gold. As real yields are negative because of the huge inflation, only gold makes sense.

On chain data indicates that whales and small fish are buying. Risk is in macro environment: CPI is higher than expected Rumors of Russia will invade Ukraine I think the invasion rumors are bullshit. FED minutes tomorrow, I doubt they will raise rates higher than the market expects them to (.25 or .5), so it might already be priced in. Bitcoin is forming what might be an inverted head and shoulder. If the pattern materializes, then the target is around $57000 in 21 days (half the duration of the inverted head and shoulder) with a probability of 83%. I want to get in before pattern completion and tomorrow's potential volatility, which is arguably risky. I am taking the risk because onchain data is very bullish.

Bitcoin breaks out of descending trendline on the price chart and also on the RSI. Last time it did that on the RSI, look what happened. The NVT ratio is also exceptionnaly favorable to a buy.

Bitcoin is in a descending channel Did it find a bottom and will break out the descending trend line? A small triangle is forming, and we are at resistance of triangle and the trend line. There is a compression of the price under the resistance of the triangle. Bullish if a break out happens.

First sell off from $69K to a $46K / $52K range: -33%, duration 25 days Then the flag is broken and a second sell off starts. Macro backdrop: FED is talking about tightening, inflation too high, debt too high, US elections end of year. FED trying to lower inflation without crashing the market. Looking to buy at selling exhaustion. 2nd leg should go to -33% or last 25 days. If it goes to $35K (-33%), it would be a -50% drawdown from the top, like the drawdown in April June. Ready to change my mind and buy sooner/higher, if CPI is improving tomorrow (they changed the calculation, maybe to get a better number), or next FED minutes is less hawkish.About the midterm elections in November, the democrats need the inflation to be lower to get votes, but they cannot affort to tank the stock market and put the economy into a recession. Also if they raise rates too much, the US debt is more difficult to repay. So it will likely be a theater until the election in November. Maybe they will fight a bit inflation then reverse course when the stock market starts to nose bleed.