maxty

Let’s see if this alternative Bitcoin top plays out — after all, it’s an experimental chart

As of May 17, 2025, Bitcoin ( BTC ) is trading around $103,000, below its ATH of $109,000. Bitcoin might reach slightly above $140,000 in the late-June 2025, marking the top, IMHO. TP1 - $120,000 (%50) TP2 - $130,000 (%25) TP3 - $140,000 (%25)

BTC currently finds itself at the intersection of geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Although traditionally viewed as a hedge against systemic risk, it is presently exhibiting characteristics more aligned with high-risk assets. The FED's forthcoming policy decisions will likely play a pivotal role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or experiences further downward pressure. The chart represents the most optimistic scenario for Bitcoin to dateDecision time: 1-15 May, 2025

In a bear market scenario, Bitcoin might see extended periods of stagnation or decline, which could challenge its perception as a store of value or its role in a diversified investment portfolio. However, bear markets can also present buying opportunities for long-term investors, as they may view the price declines as temporary setbacks in Bitcoin's overall growth trajectory.

Bitcoin’s ultimate support for bulls lies between the two black lines shown above.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory hinges on critical technical levels. Should Bitcoin fall below the key support zones—referred to here as the 'red lines' and t he bold black line —it risks entering a bear market, potentially signaling the end of the current bull cycle. These levels are pivotal for sustaining the parabolic bull market’s final leg. Following an initial decline from current levels, Bitcoin is projected to drop to approximately $70K, where it may consolidate for a couple of months. For the best-case scenario to unfold, Bitcoin must hold above the critical $70-77K threshold and execute a sharp V-shaped recovery. From there, a robust rally could propel it beyond $100K around August, culminating in the cycle’s peak in September at its highest point. While this outcome appears unlikely in the short term, it remains the most favorable projection, contingent on Bitcoin maintaining strength above the $70K line. Failure to do so could prematurely terminate the bull cycle.revised:

Trump’s tariff threats have sparked market volatility and liquidity concerns, and these effects could persist for some time. For the FED, no rate cuts in March and April (May) look solid; June’s cut depends on evolving conditions—tariff impacts, liquidity, and inflation trends will be key. A declining DXY and rising global M2 (BTC has 80%+ correlation) could also support a cut.neat

So long as BTCUSD remains between the black lines, it remains bullish. The area below the green dots is danger zone that might trigger a bearish trend, which would be unfortunate for cryptocurrency investorsBelow 90K is possible given the recent news on: -Trump’s possible retaliatory tariffs, the end of one-month suspensions, and potential tariffs on the EU -The Fed’s recent report hinting at ending QT in June -Higher inflation expectations Negativity would shift the cycle top towards mid-2025. However, an announcement regarding a BTC strategic reserve could drastically alter the trajectory.mid-top confirmed. final leg is around mid or late 2025

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