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Market Context & Fundamental OverviewGold surged 4.85% last week, closing in on the critical $3,500 resistance zone, as the U.S. Dollar came under intense pressure. Key catalysts include:Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. credit outlook, driving the DXY below 100.00Mounting concerns over fiscal stability as the $3.8 trillion tax bill advances to the SenateLong-dated Treasury yields topped 5%, signalling investor anxietyRising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East (Israel–Iran risks), fuelling safe-haven demandAnticipation of a dovish shift from the Fed, with this week’s FOMC minutes (Wed) and Core PCE print (Fri) likely to influence USD direction and risk sentimentThese macro conditions reinforce the bullish case for gold, providing fundamental alignment with the current technical setup.Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave Framework)Gold appears to be forming a classic 5-wave impulsive structure. Current price action suggests we are in or near the end of Wave 1, which should pullback into a key Fibonacci retracement zone (50–61.8%).Wave 1: Completed – sharp rally from previous supportWave 2: Ongoing – corrective pullback into Fib zoneWave 3: Anticipated next move – typically the strongest impulsive legMarket Structure Observations:Price respecting higher timeframe supportMomentum indicators beginning to stabiliseNo sign of deeper invalidation yetTrade PlanEntry StrategyAggressive Entry: Enter on a clear bounce from the Fibonacci zone (~61.8% retracement), with a strong bullish candle or momentum signalConservative Entry: Wait for a break above the Wave 1 high to confirm trend continuation into Wave 3Stop LossBelow the Wave 2 low / structural invalidation levelTake Profit LevelsTP1: $3,500 (recent high and resistance)TP2: $3,750 (projected Wave 3 target based on 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1)

I wanted to share my latest analysis on XAU/USD based on recent price action and wave structure.Weekly Timeframe:The overall trend remains bullish, starting from the lows of 1600. This marks the beginning of Cycle Wave 3. We completed Primary Waves 1, 2, and 3 at the all-time high (ATH) and are now in a corrective Primary Wave 4 phase.Daily Timeframe:It appears that the 3-swing correction at 2540 could signify the end of Primary Wave 4. If this is the case, XAU may now be entering the early stages of Primary Wave 5.1-Hour Timeframe:A deeper dive into the 1-hour chart shows a 5-wave impulse from the 2540 low to 2720, suggesting this could be Intermediate Wave 1. Following this, there has been a 3-wave correction down to 2625. If this pattern holds, we can expect gold to regain momentum soon.Let me know if you have any thoughts or would like to discuss this further.

Nice clean moves on gold yesterday - Minor (green) 1&2 looks to completed Minuett (orange) wave moving into wave 5 to complet Minor wave 3P.S Elliot waves are subjective all depends on where your wave count starts

After a nice rejection from 2040-42 levels yesterday XAU wnet on to test 2030-25 levels finding short term supportwith US GDP data expected to come in 0.2% lower than expected so if GDP does print 3.1% XAU will find the impulse trigger buys to go and test 2040 levels once againtrade safe

After an impulsive wave down from 2030 on the release of HOT CPI data XAUUSD has completed a primary wave 3 and now seems to be in the early stages of Primary wave 4safe sell zones will be on the break of today's lows and safe buys above 1993-94

Gold had a nice Rejection from 2028-30 zone and finally Breaking 2020 support and gold went and found nice support around 2012-10 Asian and London session's has traded higher to go and test 2020-30. so will NYSE go and BREAK yesterdays lows??best RR will be to sell from 2028-26 safest place to sell will be at the break of yesterdays lows the bullish scenario will be gold buys above 2032

on the 30min time-frame gold looks to holding 2020-18 level time to for a leg up to encourage the sellers back into the market to break 2020 and test 2015

very choppy price action after a very impulsive move down from 2044 to 2019 price had been in correction phase trade with the waves down to 2027-25 zone then up too 2040 to finish the cycle and ready for next weeks drop to attack 2000

if gold stays above 2032 and makes a nice impulse towards 2038 look for buys set upsDXY is in a minor pullback keep an eye on both

if gold stays below 2028 look for gold rejection between 2025-22 SL below the recent swing low