Technical analysis by m0bh4y4t about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (5/25/2025)

Market Context & Fundamental Overview Gold surged 4.85% last week, closing in on the critical $3,500 resistance zone, as the U.S. Dollar came under intense pressure. Key catalysts include: Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. credit outlook, driving the DXY below 100.00 Mounting concerns over fiscal stability as the $3.8 trillion tax bill advances to the Senate Long-dated Treasury yields topped 5%, signalling investor anxiety Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East (Israel–Iran risks), fuelling safe-haven demand Anticipation of a dovish shift from the Fed, with this week’s FOMC minutes (Wed) and Core PCE print (Fri) likely to influence USD direction and risk sentiment These macro conditions reinforce the bullish case for gold, providing fundamental alignment with the current technical setup. Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave Framework) Gold appears to be forming a classic 5-wave impulsive structure. Current price action suggests we are in or near the end of Wave 1, which should pullback into a key Fibonacci retracement zone (50–61.8%). Wave 1: Completed – sharp rally from previous support Wave 2: Ongoing – corrective pullback into Fib zone Wave 3: Anticipated next move – typically the strongest impulsive leg Market Structure Observations: Price respecting higher timeframe support Momentum indicators beginning to stabilise No sign of deeper invalidation yet Trade Plan Entry Strategy Aggressive Entry: Enter on a clear bounce from the Fibonacci zone (~61.8% retracement), with a strong bullish candle or momentum signal Conservative Entry: Wait for a break above the Wave 1 high to confirm trend continuation into Wave 3 Stop Loss Below the Wave 2 low / structural invalidation level Take Profit Levels TP1: $3,500 (recent high and resistance) TP2: $3,750 (projected Wave 3 target based on 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1)