Technical analysis by m0bh4y4t about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (5/25/2025)

Market Context & Fundamental OverviewGold surged 4.85% last week, closing in on the critical $3,500 resistance zone, as the U.S. Dollar came under intense pressure. Key catalysts include:Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. credit outlook, driving the DXY below 100.00Mounting concerns over fiscal stability as the $3.8 trillion tax bill advances to the SenateLong-dated Treasury yields topped 5%, signalling investor anxietyRising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East (Israel–Iran risks), fuelling safe-haven demandAnticipation of a dovish shift from the Fed, with this week’s FOMC minutes (Wed) and Core PCE print (Fri) likely to influence USD direction and risk sentimentThese macro conditions reinforce the bullish case for gold, providing fundamental alignment with the current technical setup.Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave Framework)Gold appears to be forming a classic 5-wave impulsive structure. Current price action suggests we are in or near the end of Wave 1, which should pullback into a key Fibonacci retracement zone (50–61.8%).Wave 1: Completed – sharp rally from previous supportWave 2: Ongoing – corrective pullback into Fib zoneWave 3: Anticipated next move – typically the strongest impulsive legMarket Structure Observations:Price respecting higher timeframe supportMomentum indicators beginning to stabiliseNo sign of deeper invalidation yetTrade PlanEntry StrategyAggressive Entry: Enter on a clear bounce from the Fibonacci zone (~61.8% retracement), with a strong bullish candle or momentum signalConservative Entry: Wait for a break above the Wave 1 high to confirm trend continuation into Wave 3Stop LossBelow the Wave 2 low / structural invalidation levelTake Profit LevelsTP1: $3,500 (recent high and resistance)TP2: $3,750 (projected Wave 3 target based on 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1)