lixing_gan

Bitcoin prices hovered near recent lows as onchain data showed that the Total Supply Held by LTHs has declined by around 390k BTC since Jul's peak, signaling ongoing distribution. ETF outflows have persisted through Nov, with only minor inflows offering a limited offset, underscoring waning demand. Bitcoin prices may remain under pressure as risk appetite softens and investor conviction weakens. From a technical perspective, BTCUSD is testing the upper bound of the descending channel, which coincides with the 106,500 resistance. The Ichimoku cloud is also indicating bearish pressure. If BTCUSD breaks the psychological support level at 100,000, the price may extend its decline toward the 93,000 support level. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the channel may prompt a retest of the resistance at 115,000. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Bitcoin prices extended their decline after six consecutive days of ETF outflows totaling over 2 bln USD, signaling persistent selling pressure amid mounting liquidity concerns. The broader retreat in global markets has added to the cautious tone, with investors trimming risk exposure. A massive 4.7. bln USD in bitcoin options contract set to expire today suggests heightened volatility ahead. From a technical perspective, BTCUSD broke out of the ascending channel and is testing the 100000 psychological level. A break below this support may prompt a further decline toward the 88000 support zone. Conversely, closing above 105000 may prompt a retest of the resistance at 112000. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Bitcoin remains under pressure as ETF outflows exceeded bln 1.3 bln USD over the past five days, reflecting weakening institutional demand. The Fear & Greed Index slipped into extreme fear territory, hinting at a potential bottom, though sentiment remains fragile. Despite occasional rebounds, deteriorating risk appetite and lower liquidity suggest selling pressure could persist, keeping near-term bitcoin prices vulnerable. From a technical perspective, BTCUSD broke below the ascending channel and is currently testing the psychological support at 100,000. If BTCUSD breaks below this level, the price may extend its decline toward the following support at 88,000. The price is holding below the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing its bearish pressure. Conversely, if BTCUSD closes above the 105000 resistance, the price may approach the following resistance at 112,000. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Bitcoin prices slipped below the short-term holders’ cost basis of 113k USD, highlighting waning demand and slowing momentum. Persistent selling by long-term holders intensified last week, with net distribution exceeding 70k BTC, the highest since Aug. Historically, recovery phases have begun only after LTHs shift to sustained accumulation, but current trends show limited signs of this, while ETF outflows add to bearish pressure. As a result, bitcoin prices remain at risk of retracing further toward the 88k USD Active Investors’ Realized Price. From a technical perspective, BTCUSD is testing the support zone at 105000, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Closing below this level may prompt a decline toward the psychological support at 100000, with a break below this level potentially prompting further weakness toward the 88000 support zone. Conversely, closing above the 112000 resistance may prompt a retest of the following resistance at 116000. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Apple (AAPL) extended gains to a record high, briefly pushing its market capitalization past the USD 4 trillion mark as strong iPhone 17 demand and a broad tech rally buoyed sentiment. Early data from Counterpoint Research showed iPhone 17 sales outpacing the previous generation by 14% in the first 10 days across the US and China, underscoring resilient consumer demand despite higher price points. However, signs of moderating lead times and delayed AI feature rollouts may temper momentum ahead of Thursday’s earnings, where investors will focus on iPhone sustainability and progress in Apple’s AI strategy. From a technical perspective, AAPL is approaching the resistance at 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 275. A break above this level may prompt a further rise toward the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension at 290. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a retest of the support at 245. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

ETHUSD is near its recent all-time high, with accumulation by large holders and institutions. Exchange balances have declined to multi-year lows. On-chain data shows daily active addresses increased in late Sep, while transaction volumes, protocol usage, and ETH burned have decreased, exposing near-term downside risk if network demand and burn rates do not recover. ETHUSD rebounded from the ascending channel's lower bound at 3880 and closed above the Ichimoku Cloud. A break above the Fibonacci Confluence zone and 5000 psychological resistance may prompt further gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 6000. Conversely, a bearish breakout of the channel and close below the 3880 support may prompt a further decline to the following support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Ethereum entered Oct above 4,300 USD, clawing back from a volatile Sep. On-chain data spotlights a historic supply squeeze: exchange balances have dropped to just 14.7 mln ETH, the lowest since 2016, as both institutions and retail buyers accelerate withdrawals. Fresh ETF inflows and a surge in long-term holding amplify this effect, limiting available supply and supporting higher prices. Meanwhile, anticipated network upgrades and renewed growth in decentralized application activity present notable upside catalysts this month. Meanwhile, additional seasonal "Uptober" optimism may further boost sentiment. ETHUSD rebounded above the ascending channel's lower bound and support at 3880. If the uptrend persists, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 5000 psychological resistance, which aligns with the Fibonacci confluence levels. Extending the bullish momentum may prompt further upside toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Retracement and the channel's upper bound at 6000. Conversely, if ETHUSD breaks below the channel's lower bound, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Bitcoin’s recent retracement has been driven by liquidation clusters, where leveraged longs were forced out as the price moved through key pressure zones. On-chain heatmaps reveal these concentrations of risk, showing how fragility in positioning amplified volatility. Long/short bias indicates traders have scaled back conviction, with net exposure lighter after weeks of aggressive leverage. Trading volumes have also contracted, reflecting a broader deleveraging cycle as speculative activity cools while institutional flows remain steady. Overall, on-chain data points to near-term stress, which may continue to weigh on bitcoin prices. BTCUSD retreated below its recent highs with the price hovering near the support at 110800. A break below this level may prompt a further decline within the descending channel, with the following support 107500 as the next potential level. Conversely, a rebound above the support may prompt a retest of the resistance at 115000, which is also a bearish fair value gap. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental View: Gold is increasingly catching the spotlight as expectations mount for upcoming Fed rate cuts. With the US economy showing signs of softening- from weaker industrial production to slower retail sales, investors are pricing in a more dovish Fed, which historically benefits dollar-denominated assets like gold. Add to this the geopolitical uncertainties and persistent central bank demand, and the backdrop is set for bullion to gain further tailwinds. Technical Analysis: Gold is currently in a strong rally, testing the upper bound of the ascending channel. If XAUUSD breaks above this channel, the price could extend gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 3820. Conversely, if resistance holds, XAUUSD may retrace to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement before resuming its upward trajectory. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental Institutional demand for ether is expanding, with over more than 130 mln USD of inflows across ether ETFs seen yesterday, and more than 90 bln USD locked in DeFi protocols, including staking solutions. Meanwhile, anticipated Fed cuts and easing inflation expectations support a broadly bullish sentiment. Network upgrades such as the Pectra upgrade have improved scalability and staking efficiency, and Layer 2 adoption now exceeds 19 bln USD, helping to lower fees and boost throughput. On-chain metrics show daily transaction volume near 1.8 mln, active addresses at four-year highs, and declining exchange reserves, signaling reduced sell pressure and robust, long-term holder commitment. Near-term volatility remains possible, with periodic dips in fee revenue and ongoing macro uncertainty, but underlying fundamentals favor further upside. Technical ETHUSD retreated from recent highs, but the uptrend persists, with higher swings and a bullish Ichimoku Cloud formed within the ascending channel. If ETHUSD rebounds from support at 4100, the price could resume its uptrend and approach the channel's upper bound and 100% Fibonacci Extension at 5200, upon breaking 4800. Conversely, a break below support at 4100 may prompt a deeper retracement toward the following support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness