lixing_gan

ETHUSD is near its recent all-time high, with accumulation by large holders and institutions. Exchange balances have declined to multi-year lows. On-chain data shows daily active addresses increased in late Sep, while transaction volumes, protocol usage, and ETH burned have decreased, exposing near-term downside risk if network demand and burn rates do not recover. ETHUSD rebounded from the ascending channel's lower bound at 3880 and closed above the Ichimoku Cloud. A break above the Fibonacci Confluence zone and 5000 psychological resistance may prompt further gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 6000. Conversely, a bearish breakout of the channel and close below the 3880 support may prompt a further decline to the following support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Ethereum entered Oct above 4,300 USD, clawing back from a volatile Sep. On-chain data spotlights a historic supply squeeze: exchange balances have dropped to just 14.7 mln ETH, the lowest since 2016, as both institutions and retail buyers accelerate withdrawals. Fresh ETF inflows and a surge in long-term holding amplify this effect, limiting available supply and supporting higher prices. Meanwhile, anticipated network upgrades and renewed growth in decentralized application activity present notable upside catalysts this month. Meanwhile, additional seasonal "Uptober" optimism may further boost sentiment. ETHUSD rebounded above the ascending channel's lower bound and support at 3880. If the uptrend persists, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 5000 psychological resistance, which aligns with the Fibonacci confluence levels. Extending the bullish momentum may prompt further upside toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Retracement and the channel's upper bound at 6000. Conversely, if ETHUSD breaks below the channel's lower bound, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Bitcoin’s recent retracement has been driven by liquidation clusters, where leveraged longs were forced out as the price moved through key pressure zones. On-chain heatmaps reveal these concentrations of risk, showing how fragility in positioning amplified volatility. Long/short bias indicates traders have scaled back conviction, with net exposure lighter after weeks of aggressive leverage. Trading volumes have also contracted, reflecting a broader deleveraging cycle as speculative activity cools while institutional flows remain steady. Overall, on-chain data points to near-term stress, which may continue to weigh on bitcoin prices. BTCUSD retreated below its recent highs with the price hovering near the support at 110800. A break below this level may prompt a further decline within the descending channel, with the following support 107500 as the next potential level. Conversely, a rebound above the support may prompt a retest of the resistance at 115000, which is also a bearish fair value gap. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental View: Gold is increasingly catching the spotlight as expectations mount for upcoming Fed rate cuts. With the US economy showing signs of softening- from weaker industrial production to slower retail sales, investors are pricing in a more dovish Fed, which historically benefits dollar-denominated assets like gold. Add to this the geopolitical uncertainties and persistent central bank demand, and the backdrop is set for bullion to gain further tailwinds. Technical Analysis: Gold is currently in a strong rally, testing the upper bound of the ascending channel. If XAUUSD breaks above this channel, the price could extend gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 3820. Conversely, if resistance holds, XAUUSD may retrace to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement before resuming its upward trajectory. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental Institutional demand for ether is expanding, with over more than 130 mln USD of inflows across ether ETFs seen yesterday, and more than 90 bln USD locked in DeFi protocols, including staking solutions. Meanwhile, anticipated Fed cuts and easing inflation expectations support a broadly bullish sentiment. Network upgrades such as the Pectra upgrade have improved scalability and staking efficiency, and Layer 2 adoption now exceeds 19 bln USD, helping to lower fees and boost throughput. On-chain metrics show daily transaction volume near 1.8 mln, active addresses at four-year highs, and declining exchange reserves, signaling reduced sell pressure and robust, long-term holder commitment. Near-term volatility remains possible, with periodic dips in fee revenue and ongoing macro uncertainty, but underlying fundamentals favor further upside. Technical ETHUSD retreated from recent highs, but the uptrend persists, with higher swings and a bullish Ichimoku Cloud formed within the ascending channel. If ETHUSD rebounds from support at 4100, the price could resume its uptrend and approach the channel's upper bound and 100% Fibonacci Extension at 5200, upon breaking 4800. Conversely, a break below support at 4100 may prompt a deeper retracement toward the following support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental perspective Gold remains anchored near all-time highs, reflecting a landscape where economic uncertainty and global tensions are shaping investor behavior. Data revisions showing slower job growth in the US fuel expectations of looser monetary conditions, bolstering the appeal of non-yielding assets. Traders are now positioning ahead of key inflation releases, which could offer a clearer signal on the Fed's rate path trajectory. On the geopolitical front, escalating friction in Europe and the Middle East adds an extra layer of support, as market participants seek shelter amid heightened risk. Supply-demand dynamics in bullion markets and shifts in positioning by institutional players suggest that gold's resilience could persist. In the short term, bullion appears poised to test resistance levels near record peaks, while any easing in risk sentiment or hawkish surprises from central banks may trigger intermittent retracements. Technical perspective XAUUSD is testing the 100% Fibonacci Extension and potential resistance at 3680. While the uptrend persists, with prices forming higher swings and holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, a retracement may be possible, following the recent price rally. If XAUUSD breaks the 3680 resistance, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 3820. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a throwback to the bullish fair value gap and support at 3520. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Gold is pushing toward record highs as several forces come together. Markets' expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates and a weaker dollar support global demand and benefit the dollar-denominated bullion. Inflation risks still linger, keeping gold relevant as a hedge. Central banks, especially in emerging markets such as China, steadily add to their reserves to reduce reliance on US assets. In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade frictions are driving safe-haven demand. What adds momentum now is that large investors channel money back into gold exchange-traded funds, helping fuel the rally. Taken together, these drivers point to gold holding strong at record highs, potentially climbing further if economic uncertainty grows. From a technical perspective, XAUUSD broke out of its symmetrical triangle pattern, hovering above the Ichimoku Cloud, with strong bullish candles reinforcing its upward momentum. If XAUUSD extends its rally, the price could approach the resistance and 100% Fibonacci Extension at 3680. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a retest of the support at 3450 before the price resumes its uptrend. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Ether has come under selling pressure in recent days as institutional investors and whales took profits, with on-chain data showing large transfers of 44,431 ETH (~208 mln USD) to Coinbase Institutional and 6,918 ETH (~32.5 mln USD) to Binance earlier in the week. This coincided with the second-largest daily outflow from spot Ether ETFs on Aug 19, totaling 197 mln USD, mainly from BlackRock and Fidelity funds, bringing two-day redemptions to 256 mln USD and halting a multi-day inflow streak. Despite the outflows, ETHUSD remains in an overall uptrend, forming higher swings within its ascending channel. The price is now testing key support at 4100 near the EMA21, where a rebound could fuel a continuation higher toward the channel’s upper bound and the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 5200. However, a break below 4100 would risk a deeper pullback toward the lower bound of the channel and stronger support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Gold prices may remain under pressure as easing safe-haven demand and shifting Fed expectations weigh on sentiment. Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and signs of easing US-China trade tensions have reduced geopolitical risk demand, while a firmer US dollar adds to gold’s headwinds. Markets are now pricing an 84% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in September, down from over 90% last week, trimming gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Technically, XAUUSD is consolidating and approaching the lower bound of its Symmetrical Triangle pattern. A bearish breakout and close below the support at 3280 could prompt a steeper drop toward the following support at 3180, while holding within the pattern and rebounding above 3280 may pave the way for a retest of the 3400 resistance. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental: Ether continues attracting strong institutional interest, with over 2.3 billion USD flowing into ether ETFs this week alone. Robust buying from major funds and growing use in DeFi and staking underscore ETH’s value as a yield-generating asset and a cornerstone of Web3 infrastructure. Supportive US regulatory developments have further boosted investor confidence, providing tailwinds for continued adoption and price appreciation. Technical: On the charts, ETHUSD recently broke out of its ascending channel, with higher swing highs suggesting momentum is building. A break above the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 5200 could pave the way toward the 161.8% extension near 6300. Conversely, a return within the ascending channel might trigger a retest of support around 4100. Overall, the technical setup aligns with the fundamental tailwinds, indicating the potential for an extended rally, though volatility remains a key risk. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness