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Gold climbed toward $3,320 per troy ounce as trade tensions and Fed uncertainty boosted safe-haven demand. A weaker dollar supported gains after President Trump escalated tariff threats, this time targeting Brazil, deepening concerns about global trade disruptions. Meanwhile, the Fed's June meeting minutes revealed a divided stance on rate cuts as some officials favored easing as early as July, while others saw no need for cuts this year. XAUUSD is trading near the top of a descending channel, hovering around 3,322 after rebounding off support at 3,280, indicating a possible challenge of the channel's resistance near 3340.If XAUUSD breaks above 3,340, the move could trigger further upside toward the next resistance at 3,360.Conversely, a rejection from current levels and a drop below 3,280 may see the price slide back toward the lower support at 3,250.By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental PerspectiveGold prices slipped as a stronger dollar weighed on dollar-denominated assets despite escalating Middle East tensions. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming FOMC meeting for clues on interest rate direction, with cautious sentiment limiting gold's near-term momentum. However, central bank demand remains a strong tailwind, as a World Gold Council survey shows 95% expect global gold reserves to grow, with a record 43% planning to boost their holdings.Technical PerspectiveXAUUSD is holding within the ascending channel and rebounded above the support zone at 3300. Sustaining its upward momentum could prompt a rally toward the swing high at 3500. Conversely, a retracement could prompt a retest of the channel's lower bound and support at 3300. A break below the 3300 support could prompt a further decline toward the next low at 3200.

Fundamental:Bitcoin reels from geopolitical shockwaves as markets brace for an escalation of Middle East tensions.Meanwhile, spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows exceeding 200 mln USD, reflecting weaker institutional appetite. With global markets faltering, volatility remaining elevated, and sentiment fragile, risk assets like bitcoin face renewed pressure.Technical:BTCUSD retreated below the ascending channel's upper bound and is currently testing the channel's lower bound and Ichimoku Cloud. If BTCUSD breaks the channel's lower bound and psychological level at 100000, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 92500. Conversely, a rebound from the channel's lower bound and break above the resistance at 11200 could prompt a further rise toward the channel's resistance and Fibonacci Confluence levels near 120000.

XAUUSD is testing the ascending channel's lower bound and support at 3300. The price holds above the Ichimoku cloud with higher swings, suggesting the potential for further gains. If XAUUSD rebounds from the 3300 support, the price could extend gains toward the resistance at 3400. Conversely, a break below 3300 could prompt a deeper retracement toward the following support at 3200.Gold prices saw a modest rebound as traders bought into recent weakness. However, gains were limited by a temporary de-escalation in US-EU trade tensions. President Trump's decision to delay the proposed 50% tariffs on EU imports until Jul 9 has given markets room to reassess near-term risk, curbing safe-haven demand.A stronger US dollar also weighed on gold. The greenback firmed after US consumer confidence surged in May, bouncing back from near a five-year low. This makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers.On the policy front, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari signaled a wait-and-see stance, advocating for steady rates until the inflationary effects of higher tariffs become clearer. This cautious tone adds uncertainty ahead of key data releases.Traders now turn their attention to the Fed minutes and PCE inflation data for further cues on the Fed's rate trajectory as the potential catalysts for the next move in gold prices.By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental:Rising US Treasury yields and weaker-than-expected US Treasury auction results have underscored declining demand for US assets. This trend has contributed to a softer US dollar, which in turn is providing supportive momentum for ETHUSD. Additionally, evolving regulatory frameworks that are becoming more supportive of cryptocurrency are further bolstering investor confidence. These factors suggest a constructive environment for ETHUSD, with potential for continued upside as demand shifts from conventional assets toward digital alternatives.Technical:ETHUSD broke out of the descending channel and closed above the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing its bullish momentum. If the price holds above the support at 2500 and sustains its rally, it could rise toward the resistance at 3050. Conversely, a retracement and a close below 2500 may prompt a deeper retracement toward the support at 2080.By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer will meet Chinese officials in Switzerland this weekend to discuss trade and economic issues. The talks could mark an early step toward easing the trade war sparked by Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, which drew steep retaliation. Bessent emphasized the need for fair trade and not decoupling, describing the current tariffs as an embargo. The renewed diplomatic engagement could boost sentiment and risk assets, limiting the downside risks in ETHUSD.ETHUSD recovered from the descending channel's lower bound and support at 1400. However, the downtrend persists, marked by lower swings and price holding within the descending channel. If ETHUSD continues to climb, the price could approach the channel's upper bound and resistance near 2100. Conversely, a retreat below 2100 could prompt a retest of the support at 1400.By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

XAUUSD pared recent gains following a retreat below the channel's upper bound and resistance at 3150. The price remains in an uptrend, holding above the Ichimoku Cloud and within the ascending channel. However, should the price experience a retracement, a throwback to the 3050 support may occur. Conversely, regaining its bullish momentum and closing above 3150 could prompt a further rise to the following resistance at 3220. Gold pulled back sharply from record highs after Trump's tariffs excluded precious metals, easing immediate supply concerns, but the broader backdrop remains favorable. Central bank buying, expectations of rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical risks underpin demand, even as short-term profit-taking kicks in. While volatility may persist, the metal's role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty keeps its long-term bullish case intact. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Gold remains near record highs, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar. Market volatility persists as President Trump’s shifting tariff policies create uncertainty. Investors are closely watching US Non-Farm Payroll data—strong figures could dampen Fed rate cut expectations, lifting the dollar and pressuring gold.Technical PerspectiveXAUUSD broke out of the ascending trendline and retreated below the resistance at 2930, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. If XAUUSD extends its decline and breaks 2900, a further drop toward the following support at 2830 may occur. Conversely, a break above 2930 could prompt a retest of the following resistance at 2950. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Bitcoin's current bull market mirrors the 2015–2018 cycle, with Realized Cap up 2.1x, well below the previous cycle's 5.7x peak, indicating room for further expansion.Meanwhile, capital rotation from LTHs to STHs, indicated by the steep decline in the Long/Short Term Supply Ratio Change, and ETF inflows of more than 100 mln USD could support further gains in bitcoin.From a technical perspective, BTCUSD rebounded above the ascending channel's lower bound and the support at 100800. If BTCUSD sustains its bullish momentum, a rise toward the swing high at 108500 may occur. Conversely, a bearish breakout of the channel and close below the support at 100800 may prompt a steeper decline to the following support at 91000.Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe,Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness

Technical Perspective:On the daily timeframe, XAUUSD pared recent losses. The price is approaching the 2700 resistance, where a reversal below this level could prompt a decline toward the ascending channel's lower bound and 2520 support. Conversely, a break above 2700 could lead to a further rise toward its record high near the 2800 resistance zone. The price also holds above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating the potential for further gains.Fundamental Perspective:Gold prices have recently recovered, rising above 2650 USD per ounce, driven by a flight to safety amid increasing geopolitical tensions, including the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war.Additionally, markets are focusing on the Fed's upcoming rate decisions, with a slight majority anticipating a 0.25% rate cut in December. Lower interest rate prospects would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. However, concerns over inflation have led investors to trim expectations for aggressive rate cuts in the coming months. While gold remains attractive during periods of crisis, risks of prolonged Fed tightening could temper its upward momentum.Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe,Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness