lixing_gan

Fundamental View: Gold is increasingly catching the spotlight as expectations mount for upcoming Fed rate cuts. With the US economy showing signs of softening- from weaker industrial production to slower retail sales, investors are pricing in a more dovish Fed, which historically benefits dollar-denominated assets like gold. Add to this the geopolitical uncertainties and persistent central bank demand, and the backdrop is set for bullion to gain further tailwinds. Technical Analysis: Gold is currently in a strong rally, testing the upper bound of the ascending channel. If XAUUSD breaks above this channel, the price could extend gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 3820. Conversely, if resistance holds, XAUUSD may retrace to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement before resuming its upward trajectory. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental Institutional demand for ether is expanding, with over more than 130 mln USD of inflows across ether ETFs seen yesterday, and more than 90 bln USD locked in DeFi protocols, including staking solutions. Meanwhile, anticipated Fed cuts and easing inflation expectations support a broadly bullish sentiment. Network upgrades such as the Pectra upgrade have improved scalability and staking efficiency, and Layer 2 adoption now exceeds 19 bln USD, helping to lower fees and boost throughput. On-chain metrics show daily transaction volume near 1.8 mln, active addresses at four-year highs, and declining exchange reserves, signaling reduced sell pressure and robust, long-term holder commitment. Near-term volatility remains possible, with periodic dips in fee revenue and ongoing macro uncertainty, but underlying fundamentals favor further upside. Technical ETHUSD retreated from recent highs, but the uptrend persists, with higher swings and a bullish Ichimoku Cloud formed within the ascending channel. If ETHUSD rebounds from support at 4100, the price could resume its uptrend and approach the channel's upper bound and 100% Fibonacci Extension at 5200, upon breaking 4800. Conversely, a break below support at 4100 may prompt a deeper retracement toward the following support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental perspective Gold remains anchored near all-time highs, reflecting a landscape where economic uncertainty and global tensions are shaping investor behavior. Data revisions showing slower job growth in the US fuel expectations of looser monetary conditions, bolstering the appeal of non-yielding assets. Traders are now positioning ahead of key inflation releases, which could offer a clearer signal on the Fed's rate path trajectory. On the geopolitical front, escalating friction in Europe and the Middle East adds an extra layer of support, as market participants seek shelter amid heightened risk. Supply-demand dynamics in bullion markets and shifts in positioning by institutional players suggest that gold's resilience could persist. In the short term, bullion appears poised to test resistance levels near record peaks, while any easing in risk sentiment or hawkish surprises from central banks may trigger intermittent retracements. Technical perspective XAUUSD is testing the 100% Fibonacci Extension and potential resistance at 3680. While the uptrend persists, with prices forming higher swings and holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, a retracement may be possible, following the recent price rally. If XAUUSD breaks the 3680 resistance, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 3820. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a throwback to the bullish fair value gap and support at 3520. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Gold is pushing toward record highs as several forces come together. Markets' expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates and a weaker dollar support global demand and benefit the dollar-denominated bullion. Inflation risks still linger, keeping gold relevant as a hedge. Central banks, especially in emerging markets such as China, steadily add to their reserves to reduce reliance on US assets. In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade frictions are driving safe-haven demand. What adds momentum now is that large investors channel money back into gold exchange-traded funds, helping fuel the rally. Taken together, these drivers point to gold holding strong at record highs, potentially climbing further if economic uncertainty grows. From a technical perspective, XAUUSD broke out of its symmetrical triangle pattern, hovering above the Ichimoku Cloud, with strong bullish candles reinforcing its upward momentum. If XAUUSD extends its rally, the price could approach the resistance and 100% Fibonacci Extension at 3680. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a retest of the support at 3450 before the price resumes its uptrend. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Ether has come under selling pressure in recent days as institutional investors and whales took profits, with on-chain data showing large transfers of 44,431 ETH (~208 mln USD) to Coinbase Institutional and 6,918 ETH (~32.5 mln USD) to Binance earlier in the week. This coincided with the second-largest daily outflow from spot Ether ETFs on Aug 19, totaling 197 mln USD, mainly from BlackRock and Fidelity funds, bringing two-day redemptions to 256 mln USD and halting a multi-day inflow streak. Despite the outflows, ETHUSD remains in an overall uptrend, forming higher swings within its ascending channel. The price is now testing key support at 4100 near the EMA21, where a rebound could fuel a continuation higher toward the channel’s upper bound and the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 5200. However, a break below 4100 would risk a deeper pullback toward the lower bound of the channel and stronger support at 3400. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Gold prices may remain under pressure as easing safe-haven demand and shifting Fed expectations weigh on sentiment. Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and signs of easing US-China trade tensions have reduced geopolitical risk demand, while a firmer US dollar adds to gold’s headwinds. Markets are now pricing an 84% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in September, down from over 90% last week, trimming gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Technically, XAUUSD is consolidating and approaching the lower bound of its Symmetrical Triangle pattern. A bearish breakout and close below the support at 3280 could prompt a steeper drop toward the following support at 3180, while holding within the pattern and rebounding above 3280 may pave the way for a retest of the 3400 resistance. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental: Ether continues attracting strong institutional interest, with over 2.3 billion USD flowing into ether ETFs this week alone. Robust buying from major funds and growing use in DeFi and staking underscore ETH’s value as a yield-generating asset and a cornerstone of Web3 infrastructure. Supportive US regulatory developments have further boosted investor confidence, providing tailwinds for continued adoption and price appreciation. Technical: On the charts, ETHUSD recently broke out of its ascending channel, with higher swing highs suggesting momentum is building. A break above the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 5200 could pave the way toward the 161.8% extension near 6300. Conversely, a return within the ascending channel might trigger a retest of support around 4100. Overall, the technical setup aligns with the fundamental tailwinds, indicating the potential for an extended rally, though volatility remains a key risk. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental perspective: Gold hovered near $3,330, staying close to a three-week low as easing trade tensions dampened safe-haven demand. The US–EU tariff agreement and signs of progress in other trade talks have calmed fears of broader conflict, reducing gold’s geopolitical bid. The focus now turns to the Fed’s policy decision. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will scrutinize Powell’s remarks for any dovish signals ahead of September. Mixed US data, including softer job openings but an uptick in US consumer confidence, adds to the uncertainty, keeping gold traders on edge. Technical Perspective: XAUUSD hovers between the 3200-3350 range following a bearish breakout of the ascending trend line and channel. An extension of its decline below the 3350 resistance and breakout zone could prompt a retest of the support at 3200, which coincides with the Fibonacci confluence area. Conversely, a break above 3350 with bullish momentum and higher swings shown on the lower timeframes could pave the way for further gains toward the swing high at 3450. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Gold climbed toward $3,320 per troy ounce as trade tensions and Fed uncertainty boosted safe-haven demand. A weaker dollar supported gains after President Trump escalated tariff threats, this time targeting Brazil, deepening concerns about global trade disruptions. Meanwhile, the Fed's June meeting minutes revealed a divided stance on rate cuts as some officials favored easing as early as July, while others saw no need for cuts this year. XAUUSD is trading near the top of a descending channel, hovering around 3,322 after rebounding off support at 3,280, indicating a possible challenge of the channel's resistance near 3340.If XAUUSD breaks above 3,340, the move could trigger further upside toward the next resistance at 3,360.Conversely, a rejection from current levels and a drop below 3,280 may see the price slide back toward the lower support at 3,250.By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness

Fundamental PerspectiveGold prices slipped as a stronger dollar weighed on dollar-denominated assets despite escalating Middle East tensions. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming FOMC meeting for clues on interest rate direction, with cautious sentiment limiting gold's near-term momentum. However, central bank demand remains a strong tailwind, as a World Gold Council survey shows 95% expect global gold reserves to grow, with a record 43% planning to boost their holdings.Technical PerspectiveXAUUSD is holding within the ascending channel and rebounded above the support zone at 3300. Sustaining its upward momentum could prompt a rally toward the swing high at 3500. Conversely, a retracement could prompt a retest of the channel's lower bound and support at 3300. A break below the 3300 support could prompt a further decline toward the next low at 3200.