leongaban

Which leads to alt season, stay paying attention to ETH/USD and BTC.D The moment both these trendlines 2nd and 3rd chart break... alt portfolios should do well. I'm still at this moment 99% SOL, not financial advice, just based on my experience living in crypto, and specifically Solana. SOL ETF filings are now rising, Artinvest actually skipped filling for an ETH ETF, and just filed for their SOL ETF.Updated, shift noticed on the 1HR, BTC.D and ETH/BTC

Right now I'm seeing a mid cycle top like we had in 2019-2020... right before the COVID drop. Marked my price targets on Bitcoin here, I'm not trading BTC, just accumulating, just noting where I think it could head, and also planning to pick up more Solana as BTC breaks to lower levels. Still expecting Rates to lower and more money printing going into the Election, and thus kick starting the final euphoric phase of the Crypto bull market.Added more indicators I'm following:

These are just price and mcap projections and not to be taken as financial advice. Imho there are basically 3 cryptocurrencies that matter in terms of organic user and developer adoption. That's Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, other chains don't come close. Currently Solana is the fastest blockchain, and processing more transactions than Ethereum and it's L2s combined. Ethereum: Top to top, 2018 - 2021 ETH made a 244% gain, from around $1400 - $4800 Solana: In my model, my conservative target is $500 in the upcoming bull cycle, which is only a 94% gain top to top. "2021 - 2024/2025" In my aggressive target, it's a 284% gain top to top, ie: from roughly $260 to $1000. Which is just slightly more than ETH's 244% performance, but we're talking about a chain with atm a much smaller marketcap, but much more potential of mass adoption. The $1000 liberal target which give SOL at current supply a $420 billion mcap, which is still under ETH's 2021 top mcap size of $578 billion.First level of $65 breeched a while back, and we're in the $70 range now.Another update, we hit $200, now back around $150 range ;)

I'm heavy in stablecoins and NFTs atm, my buy back targets are highlighted in these charts. For BTC is in the $18k range, for SOL its the $14-$15 range. IMHO the bottoms are still in, but we still have another bear year ahead of us, accumulation year peeps.

Link on Wyckoff Method: academy.binance.com/en/articles/the-wyckoff-method-explainedLast year we had a Wyckoff distribution phase, which started the bear market, and what seems to be playing out now is the bullish version, Wyckoff accumulation. Way too early to tell, but saving this to view back on later.

I'm still waiting for #BTC to get closer to it's 200 week moving average, before I consider re-entering any coin position, BTC, ETH or SOL.These are plain to see vertical vol levels... the previous cycle high of Ethereum isn't going to get respected in this environment.

Obviously these zones will change with more info, but as it stands, I want entries closer to the Bitcoin 200 W moving average and bottom of this extended channel.Now I'm not actually buying BTC, will be mostly entering new positions in ETH and SOL. Perhaps adding to my BTC position in my IRA.Saving idea for the future.

With about a day left before the candle stick closes... one could argue we have been in a bear market the last 6 months, and we have technically. However when most were bearish they were talking about a major cycle downturn, ie: ending of the 2020-2021 over all crypto bull cycle. This wasn't true till Bitcoin breaks, closes below and gets rejected by the 100 W.I've been adjusting the last few months, mostly staking Solana, still have a lot in NFTs, but any NFTs I've been selling, I've placed into stablecoins.Now BTC has closed below the 100 W before and recovered: Nov 2019, and Mar: 2020. However this break below follows a parabolic rise and then a double top on Bitcoin including top signals in Mar of 2020 (which I ignored) the Mayer Multiple and NVT showed top signs, but alas I sold everything else at the top except for Bitcoin. However my BTC position at the time wasn't as largest as ETH or SOL.It's important to watch the next several weeks and months... the one hope left imho for BTC is that this cycle is more similar to the 2013 cycle, where there was a top in Dec 2013 and a bottom in Jan of 2015 or in ETH's case a top in Jun 2016 and bottom in Dec 2016 then the bull market continued. Conditions are much diff this time and coins like ETH have held up better than BTC, not just because of smaller marketcap dynamics, but because of the new NFT asset class. We do not know what a large bear cycle looks like in NFTs yet. When comparing price action for NFTs it's already had a 2013 and a 2017 cycle inside of under a year! Now atm, some BlueChips still have massively high floor prices while others are stable or slowly decreasing.Bleeding isn't going to stop anytime soon.1H Red and Yellow Xs all over:May 10thSOL 1H / BTC dailyDaily BTC all the oscillators showing massive weakness, here we see the Stochastic, RSI and MACD super depressed, RSI and MACD can't flip over no strength from bulls. I rare to see the Stochastic this beat down as well. Have not re-entered any position yet, was tempted too on Solana at $69, but couldn't even do it for the luls.SOL/ETH/BTC continuing down, imho the big capitulation candle sticks haven't printed yet...Back in all cash positions, was playing a short term relief rally, it was going good for a few days, but didn't hold bullish momentum. Turned over, a H&S formed on BTC 4 hr. Now my red lines on BTC and ETH broke, exited all ETH and SOL positions. No BTC positions as I don't hold BTC except for in my IRA.Will see you guys with BTC back at 25K before reassessing.The 12HR looks bad on all coins, expecting a return to 25k, will play any bounce there as a day trade, then continue to wait till the 200 week moving average on BTC before re-entering full positions on ETH and SOL.BTC almost back to the 200 week, and it's going under it

Imho BTC needs to clear 48k then hold it as support and continue on for any of us to feel safe atm. It is bouncing of the short term trend line I drew, and the golden pocket of the local fibs. Solana is similar to BTC in that it's bouncing off it's golden pocket, ETH is looking stronger bouncing off the 0.5.

Bearish scenario is more likely. So far lengthening cycle theory still has a chance to play out, however we've been in a several month bear market already... also the double top on Bitcoin last year is way too strong over over look at this point.As the war and regulatory uncertainty continues in the US, we could continue to see depressed crypto prices going into summer.